Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:48 pm Kind of thought this was interesting. We often see graphs of comparing the models and the 500mb pattern , 3, 5 , 7 , 10 days out . This one shows the Euro keeping track of itself over the years on improving accuracy.


IMG_0707.jpeg

A 40% accuracy rate at Day 10? Wow! I'm impressed by that.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:53 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:48 pm Kind of thought this was interesting. We often see graphs of comparing the models and the 500mb pattern , 3, 5 , 7 , 10 days out . This one shows the Euro keeping track of itself over the years on improving accuracy.


IMG_0707.jpeg

A 40% accuracy rate at Day 10? Wow! I'm impressed by that.

I guess my question what does accuracy include. Do you need to be within a certain amount of degrees or you got the total precip correct and of course is every location that accurate. I believe over the years especially in the past 10 or so the Euro has been more accurate in the winter time and love to see this same chart without using the months say June-Sept in which the accuracy should be much higher.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 3:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:53 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:48 pm Kind of thought this was interesting. We often see graphs of comparing the models and the 500mb pattern , 3, 5 , 7 , 10 days out . This one shows the Euro keeping track of itself over the years on improving accuracy.


IMG_0707.jpeg

A 40% accuracy rate at Day 10? Wow! I'm impressed by that.

I guess my question what does accuracy include. Do you need to be within a certain amount of degrees or you got the total precip correct and of course is every location that accurate. I believe over the years especially in the past 10 or so the Euro has been more accurate in the winter time and love to see this same chart without using the months say June-Sept in which the accuracy should be much higher.

Tim, the map that Bgoney posted was showing just the 500 MB Pattern (where the troughs and ridges are). It has nothing to do with temps or precip. with regards to that map. Temps / precip when you are medium or long range forecasting IMO are a crap shoot at best anyway. That is best suited for short range forecasting. You have to get the 500 MB pattern right first then you have a much higher chance at getting temps / precip correct, but that's also not always the case. How many times have you seen a good pattern and we strike out (when talking snow or severe wx). Same can be said with a bad pattern. We can score in those too with a little luck.

To add... I do see your point though Tim. We have discussed this many times over the years that the GFS usually does better in the warmer months and Euro better in the colder months. However, this year that wasn't the case at all. The GFS showing those monster heat ridges never materialized for us. Not one time. So we know the GFS this past summer at 500 MB was dreadful. Euro was fair. CMC wasn't too shabby. We'll see how the models fair during the colder months.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 3:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 3:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:53 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:48 pm Kind of thought this was interesting. We often see graphs of comparing the models and the 500mb pattern , 3, 5 , 7 , 10 days out . This one shows the Euro keeping track of itself over the years on improving accuracy.


IMG_0707.jpeg

A 40% accuracy rate at Day 10? Wow! I'm impressed by that.

I guess my question what does accuracy include. Do you need to be within a certain amount of degrees or you got the total precip correct and of course is every location that accurate. I believe over the years especially in the past 10 or so the Euro has been more accurate in the winter time and love to see this same chart without using the months say June-Sept in which the accuracy should be much higher.

Tim, the map that Bgoney posted was showing just the 500 MB Pattern (where the troughs and ridges are). It has nothing to do with temps or precip. with regards to that map. Temps / precip when you are medium or long range forecasting IMO are a crap shoot at best anyway. That is best suited for short range forecasting. You have to get the 500 MB pattern right first then you have a much higher chance at getting temps / precip correct, but that's also not always the case. How many times have you seen a good pattern and we strike out (when talking snow or severe wx). Same can be said with a bad pattern. We can score in those too with a little luck.

Thanks Les for that and I would still love to see them take the June-Sept out of the equation because that is 1/3 of the score and usually rather easy to get the 500 MB Pattern down in the summer months.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 3:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 3:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 3:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:53 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:48 pm Kind of thought this was interesting. We often see graphs of comparing the models and the 500mb pattern , 3, 5 , 7 , 10 days out . This one shows the Euro keeping track of itself over the years on improving accuracy.


IMG_0707.jpeg

A 40% accuracy rate at Day 10? Wow! I'm impressed by that.

I guess my question what does accuracy include. Do you need to be within a certain amount of degrees or you got the total precip correct and of course is every location that accurate. I believe over the years especially in the past 10 or so the Euro has been more accurate in the winter time and love to see this same chart without using the months say June-Sept in which the accuracy should be much higher.

Tim, the map that Bgoney posted was showing just the 500 MB Pattern (where the troughs and ridges are). It has nothing to do with temps or precip. with regards to that map. Temps / precip when you are medium or long range forecasting IMO are a crap shoot at best anyway. That is best suited for short range forecasting. You have to get the 500 MB pattern right first then you have a much higher chance at getting temps / precip correct, but that's also not always the case. How many times have you seen a good pattern and we strike out (when talking snow or severe wx). Same can be said with a bad pattern. We can score in those too with a little luck.

Thanks Les for that and I would still love to see them take the June-Sept out of the equation because that is 1/3 of the score and usually rather easy to get the 500 MB Pattern down in the summer months.

Agreed... I would love to see a winter monthly breakdown like Nov - Mar or something to that affect.

57 at CVG today, 59 here.

Not liking the looks of the Sat forecast as ILN has upped the POPs to 60% to 70%! Need it drier than wet as our movers from Dayton will be here in the morning and one of the things being transferred from the old to new house is a bed and frame from the master bedroom e.g. etc.

I enjoy the rain but its not conducive when moving e.g.

CVG and CMH both reached 57 and DAY 56 today.

Eric, don't you know, moving brings rain. It seems every time we see moving vans in our neighborhood, it rains.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 12:05 am Eric, don't you know, moving brings rain. It seems every time we see moving vans in our neighborhood, it rains.

Hi Linn, yep its like when washing a vehicle and more often than not it then rains soon afterward.

My folks and I feel like our minds are gelled. I helped Dad unload some boxes of both household cleaning products and bathroom accessories e.g. in the past hour / hour and a half. We filled a portion of a cabinet that is against a wall of our new garage. Going from a standard sized house to a downsized catalpa-style house is incredible. Never realized how much spaciousness one takes for granted until a downsize.

Our Dayton moving crew arrives at around 8:30 later this morning at the old house.

Thankfully the forecast looking much better for today as only a 40% to 50% POPs for mainly in the afternoon hours.

Last night I had wondered if the staff at ILN and the models had lost collective sense at 60% to70% re Sat.

Currently 37 and progged for around 60 today here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:10 pm Not liking the looks of the Sat forecast as ILN has upped the POPs to 60% to 70%! Need it drier than wet as our movers from Dayton will be here in the morning and one of the things being transferred from the old to new house is a bed and frame from the master bedroom e.g. etc.

I enjoy the rain but its not conducive when moving e.g.

I hear that! We moved my Brother in heavy rain from his old house in Oregonia to the new one in Milford about 5-6 years ago and everthing had to be dried out. It was a mess!

Good Saturday morning to you all! A nice morning but once the clipper moves in, clouds and the wind will increase. South of the clipper track, we can expect temps in the 60s today while north of it, 50s and rain showers will be possible esp for those North and NE of Cincinnati. Increasing sunshine for tomorrow but cooler, with highs in the 50s for everyone. A good threat for frost Mon morning with the 60sd, then the 70s Tues and Wed. Next system brings in the 60s with rain shower chances Thurs and Fri as the first in a series of fronts, tries to move in but fails due to the ridge to our SE. Models diverge next weekend. Do we get nailed with heavy rain on Sunday or just NW of Cincinnati and we are dry? Stay tuned for forecast changes, next weekend and beyond.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 10:22 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:10 pm Not liking the looks of the Sat forecast as ILN has upped the POPs to 60% to 70%! Need it drier than wet as our movers from Dayton will be here in the morning and one of the things being transferred from the old to new house is a bed and frame from the master bedroom e.g. etc.

I enjoy the rain but its not conducive when moving e.g.

I hear that! We moved my Brother in heavy rain from his old house in Oregonia to the new one in Milford about 5-6 years ago and everthing had to be dried out. It was a mess!

Thankfully the majority of our furniture has been transferred to our new house in the first 2 phases of the move.

We have a mattress and frame in the master bedroom to be moved today and an oak bookcase e.g. to one of our storage bins.

Yesterday afternoon we sold an oak dresser that I've had since my Raleigh years and to a very nice family from near Versailles, OH who reside in Russia, OH. Jace and Shelly who are the parents have 5 boys and so that'll be a nice piece of furniture that their sons can share.

Currently 46 here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 10:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 10:22 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:10 pm Not liking the looks of the Sat forecast as ILN has upped the POPs to 60% to 70%! Need it drier than wet as our movers from Dayton will be here in the morning and one of the things being transferred from the old to new house is a bed and frame from the master bedroom e.g. etc.

I enjoy the rain but its not conducive when moving e.g.

I hear that! We moved my Brother in heavy rain from his old house in Oregonia to the new one in Milford about 5-6 years ago and everthing had to be dried out. It was a mess!

Thankfully the majority of our furniture has been transferred to our new house in the first 2 phases of the move.

We have a mattress and frame in the master bedroom to be moved today and an oak bookcase e.g. to one of our storage bins.

Yesterday afternoon we sold an oak dresser that I've had since my Raleigh years and to a very nice family from near Versailles, OH who reside in Russia, OH. Jace and Shelly who are the parents have 5 boys and so that'll be a nice piece of furniture that their sons can share.

Currently 46 here in G'ville.

Sounds good Bro! I had 38 this morning, CVG 37. Currently in the 40s with the 50s coming in the next hour.

Well, the crew didn't make it over in time before the Sat batch.

Per the 12Z GFS, not much rain at all for Cincy until Monday the 30th. Tim could also see some snow the weekend before Halloween as well up in Wisc. If it occurs, we need a pic.

12Z Euro is similar to the above.

We couldn't have asked for a more awesome crew from Greater Dayton M and S for the last big move of our lives and are very happy and pleased! There were 3 men and 2 women and all were very warm, friendly, and professional!

Thankful to the Lord as He got us through it and that all we have to do now at the old house is some vacuuming of carpeting e.g. etc. tomorrow (Sun) before our realtor Dustin hands the keys to the new owners at 5 PM.

Currently 54 here in G'ville.

Clouds are lifting out of NKY and we have mostly sunny skies now. 67 now...

Thankfully the last residual showers weren't too bad for the crew and prayerfully next Thurs's drought monitor update will at least show some if not minor improvement.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 4:09 pm Thankfully the last residual showers weren't too bad for the crew and prayerfully next Thurs's drought monitor update will at least show some if not minor improvement.

It may stay the same since soaking rainfall may not occur again for another 9 days per the latest guidance.

Wow... 69 now, almost 70 degrees thanks to the sunshine.