Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:52 am Wow, big fat flakes atm , just another day in global warming paradise. Back to back late April days of accumulating snows as I have another half inch from overnight and what is currently falling. Records continue to fall throughout the eastern half of US. We of course warm up next week but a new rou d of cold will be lurking in the first week of May . GFS with what would be an impressive snowfall forecast for the heart of winter, over the next 2 weeks
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First week in May cold front

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So much for an over all warm outlook for May for the OV that I saw this evening on WHIO7's wx segment.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am Why can't we see this Nov - Mar? That would be perfect then let it do whatever the remaining months of the year.

I was about to say the same, Les! Once we get to May, I am in severe storm and warm weather mode! Enough with this cold air!

Same here, Bro! Feckless fickle Ma Nature!

Good morning and Happy Friday to you all! 30 right now imby… CVG had 34 as of the 6am reading, probably a tad cooler by now. Looks like a light frost out here as it begins to get light. We should be fine today for any outdoor plans. Rain tomorrow, then we're good after that for a while. Enjoy a little taste of summer once again next week. Still going dry until Wed night / Thursday at this point. That can change of course.

Low so far here has been 34.

NAM and GFS both show around 0.15" of rain for tomorrow at CVG, so a big reduction there. The Euro on the other hand is coming in a bit slower with this system, more of a Sat afternoon and evening event and more rain too... about 0.40". We shall see what solution wins tomorrow.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/04/23/goode- ... ther-blog/

I thought this was cool - found this on YouTube. Brings back memories. This was the actual weather on 4/21 using the old WeatherStar4000 and the local Cincy radar with NOAA in the background. Old farts like me will appreciate this. LOL

Good "blast from the past" type of post, Mike! This was long before they started using Jim Cantore's voice for everything.

12z NAM has ZERO rain for Dayton on Saturday lol

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:18 am 12z NAM has ZERO rain for Dayton on Saturday lol

GFS has 0.03" For CVG, only 0.13" Euro might be an outlier here.

Good Afternoon and it looks like the models are keeping the northern system to far north and the southern system is pretty strong so the track for precip is getting tough. I believe .25 looks about right for the event so not a big event at all. Down here the amounts continue to go up so getting closer to 2 inches is likely and we need it just to get rid of all the pollen. Hopefully the system mid-week produces a heavier batch of rainfall up there.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:56 am I thought this was cool - found this on YouTube. Brings back memories. This was the actual weather on 4/21 using the old WeatherStar4000 and the local Cincy radar with NOAA in the background. Old farts like me will appreciate this. LOL

Too cool! Thanks for sharing! Really brings back memories from back in the day.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:22 pm Good Afternoon and it looks like the models are keeping the northern system to far north and the southern system is pretty strong so the track for precip is getting tough. I believe .25 looks about right for the event so not a big event at all. Down here the amounts continue to go up so getting closer to 2 inches is likely and we need it just to get rid of all the pollen. Hopefully the system mid-week produces a heavier batch of rainfall up there.

I was hoping for a half inch the other day but it isn't going to happen. Going to have to go with the lighter amounts at this point. Like you said, hopefully some t-storms can give us some rain Wed night / Thurs next week because with back to back 80s expected, we'll need the water by then.

12Z Euro is coming down to reality... 0.25" at CVG and for DAY 0.09"

So probably only around a tenth at most for here in Greenville i.e. this weekend.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:27 am Wow JP! That stinks. Glad you did not loose power though. Always a plus!

Thanks.Finally got it all put back on the house today.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:56 am I thought this was cool - found this on YouTube. Brings back memories. This was the actual weather on 4/21 using the old WeatherStar4000 and the local Cincy radar with NOAA in the background. Old farts like me will appreciate this. LOL

On the Eights TWC local forecasts sure were a lot more detailed back then.

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:27 am Wow JP! That stinks. Glad you did not loose power though. Always a plus!

Thanks.Finally got it all put back on the house today.

Great to hear, JP!

Good morning all! 50 degrees as we await the rain to move in this afternoon. Still looking at light amounts... 0.10-0.20" range with lesser amounts for the I-70 Crew.

Look for a nice Sunday and an awesome Mon and Tues with summer like air by Tues. On Wed do we stay dry or does the action move in? That is the question of the day there. Both the GFS and Euro have moved the rain chances up to Wed afternoon. Rain chances continues thru Fri with a cold front and temps in the 60s for highs by the end of next week. Any strong t-storm chances during this time will be determined by the usual factors... timing of front, CAPE, Shear, etc.

Also for gardeners... been hearing some Pros online talking about this is it for the cold air, blah blah blah. I would wait if I were you just to be on the safe side until after the first week of May. 1st week of May, I don't trust it. I know we have brought this up before (Bgoney, me, Tim, Mike - The usual AV forecasters) and with the MJO in favorable phases along with the favorable Tellies, one last frost threat cannot be ruled out during the first week of May. Then it should be over. Let's take a look.

AO - Looks to dip then rise
NAO - Primarily negative
PNA - A spike towards positive then falling
EPO - Negative
MJO - 7-8-1-2 progression thru about May 10th.

All of this is based on the CPC's graphics on their website.

So we get the upcoming warmth thanks to phase 7, then the cooler air comes by the end of next week as we go into the cooler phases by months end into May. Let's see what happens but I am waiting about 2 more weeks at this time before I plant my tomatoes, beans, flowers, etc. OK for broccoli, cauliflower, my spinach... cold hearty weather crops are fine. The annuals should wait IMHO.

Thoughts?

Here is a loop of the NH 500 MB pattern over the last 30 days. You can clearly see how the blocking has developed and the -EPO is beginning to dominate the pattern along with the -NAO. Plenty of cold air to be tapped still folks.

What a week! Have really grown accustomed to these cold snaps but the 3" of snow was quite the surprise. Knew it was supposed to snow but only expected a dusting. Thankfully, our landscape seems to have made it through and our Japanese maple was snug under a canopy tent walled up with blankets. Quite the sight! lol

Looking forward to the warm up and will stay prepared for the cool down. No annuals or tomato plants happening for awhile. Typically wait til after Mother's Day and your thoughts and info, Les, are further reasoning to do just that!

Thank you Gina! I mean look at a National Radar picture of the current storm system. Like 2 months ago, we would have a nice snow storm on our hands with a low track that far south. It is spring, but shots of cold enough air for lows in the mid 30s south, low 30s north) can still be a factor. Long term fantasy GFS is showing that potential. This new upgrade has done well for the GFS's performance now. It is not the king of all models but it is no longer a laughing stock either and should be given weight.

Short Term: Rain should be entering the Metro area around midday. Temps in the 50s. Rain ends tonight with lows in the mid 40s. Decreasing clouds Sunday with the 60s.

Great Post Les this morning concerning the chances of some more frost possible and waiting to plant is a good ideal. I can tell you down here in SC there must have been a big freeze earlier this month because many of the bushes and trees got zapped and you can tell as they try and grown again the portion that had fully grew about before looks like frozen leaves. My guess you probably don't see many freeze warnings down here after March plus the local plants very seldom get shocked but this time they did.