March 2025 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning and getting ready for a busy stretch in the weather department over the next week to 10 days. Plenty of chances for rain and yes severe weather is possible. I see they moved us up to the enhanced level in terms of severe weather on Sunday. Where the severe weather sets up is still not set and we are talking at least 60 hours away from any major outbreak. No doubt will be watching this the next few days. My son is expecting an ice storm late Saturday and Sunday. Winter never ends for them lol but really March tends to be a very busy month in terms of winter weather in that part of the world as most years its still cold enough for snow/sleet/fr rain plus precip totals are usually much higher than in mid-winter as the gom can throw moisture rather far north plus with summer trying to invade in the south the temp difference also allows for stronger storms.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Bgoney made me go look and wow! The NAM certainly makes you go, "Hmmm!" But we know the NAM can certainly over do things too. A wait and see game for sure on Sunday. I think it'll be a Sun night thing too since this system has slowed down overall.

For today and Sat, just a 40-50% chance for rain and storms otherwise mild and windy. Upper 70s today, low 70s tomorrow. Then we will see how Sun into Mon goes. That will wrap up March!

[tron777]

Most folks are dry right now minus our NE counties with scattered showers moving thru this morning. We should see some sunshine (currently is to our SW) once the warm front moves a little more to the NE as the day rolls on.

[tron777]

76 degrees now, dew of 50 at CVG. Would like to see it at 60+ for severe wx.

[tron777]

12Z NAM and GFS are World's Apart for Sunday night with regards to timing and severe wx parameters


NAM:

nam_2025032812_066_38.87--84.7.png

GFS:

gfs_2025032812_066_39.0--84.5.png

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 73 here in G'ville, 77 DAY, 80 CVG and 81 KLUK.

[House of Cards]

I’m in Chicago for a wedding, driving back Sunday. Probably arriving around midday. I’ll see if I can fetch any fun weather with me.

[tron777]

81 here my 1st 80 of the season! 80 at CVG today. 85 was the record, well short. All is quiet tonight as we are warm sectored and awaiting the next low to approach from the SW as it rides up the front Sun night into Monday. Tomorrow is not a bad day after all now with a cap in place and only late day action is expected. Pre frontal trough should give us a round a rain and storms, nothing too crazy, Sat night into Sun morning. A break then Sun evening into the overnight for the severe stuff with leftover rain ending by Monday afternoon with falling temps.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be in that 1-2" range thru the Late Sat thru Monday period. Amounts will vary where t-storms get or do not get involved.

[tron777]

487793898_1047128667234547_7755809920743954111_n.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 81, DAY 79 and CMH 75 today.

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
434 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-300900-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
434 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Sunday
night. Some strong to severe storms are likely during this time,
with damaging winds being the primary threat. Large hail and a few
tornadoes will also be possible.

Additionally, a few strong to severe storms will be possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Several additional rounds of showers
and storms are expected through Friday. The repeated rounds of
storms and heavy rain may lead to flooding and rises on area
waterways. The threat for heavy rain and flooding may continue beyond
Friday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed Sunday evening into Sunday
night. Additional activation may be needed mid to late week.

$$

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a few showers this morning. My guess is by late morning most folks should be dry though models did not catch on well for the activity this morning but always that 4a-9a attach. Plenty of dry weather today though we will see dew points climbing and would not be surprised to see some showers later today but probably not widespread. Overnight into Sunday morning a better shot of widespread showers and what happens midday Sunday will no doubt have a say in the weather later in the day.

Interesting low that will be located somewhere over northern Illinois on Sunday morning. How strong does this system end up and this is important in regards to severe weather. Here is the concern for tornado's. Getting an outbreak of tornado's you need winds from different directions. Yesterday it look like we would see mainly a southwest wind and yes rather strong and this does produce straight line winds but keeps the tornado threat lower. The storm this morning is forecast to be even stronger and this ends up with a more southerly flow and this would no doubt increase the tornado threat. Still need to watch this over the next 24 hours to see how strong the low gets.

So no doubt severe chances are higher than normal but as usual how do the pieces of the puzzle look Sunday morning. Rainfall totals could vary quite a bit because of some downpours with these storms. I would probably go .5-1.0 as a general total but we know a thunderstorm can produce and hour or two of very heavy rainfall.

By Monday the cold front comes through and temps drop once again only to repeat this cycle mid-week and that system at the moment looks like a couple of days event which may not be quite as severe as Sunday but has the chance of producing some heavy rains and then we will need to look at some flooding issues.

[tron777]

The boys had this to say about the event:

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
A weakening S/W will progress to the NE though the TN/OH Vly tonight,
bringing a bit more in the way of lift/moisture. This should allow
for the development of SCT SHRA late this evening, which will become
numerous in coverage after midnight. Cannot completely rule out a
stray TS, but do think that this will be ISO at best. Rainfall, in
general, will be on the order of one quarter of an inch or less
through Sunday morning before the activity becomes more ISO in
coverage by mid/late morning. Unseasonably warm temps are on tap
tonight with lows bottoming out in the lower 60s.

Once the SHRA coverage wanes into early afternoon, the focus will
quickly shift to the severe storm potential, which will likely
maximize locally from the evening into the early overnight hours.

The first item of interest to keep an eye on Sunday afternoon/early
evening will be the destabilization efforts, especially in the wake
of AM convection/thick clouds locally. The open warm sector should
become firmly established initially off to the W of the local area by
the afternoon, characterized by sfc dewpoints in the lower to even
mid 60s. This will be especially the case as convection should
already be underway near the MO/IL line by early afternoon, with ENE
progression of the storms into a rapidly destabilizing environment
downstream.

As the sfc low moves from ern IA into N IL and S WI by late day,
pre-frontal convection should be expanding in coverage across
central IL into central IN amidst a favorable thermodynamic
environment characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg
and strong deep-layer shear on the order of about 50kts. This
combination of lift/ascent (courtesy of the S/W pivoting into the wrn
OH Vly and undertaking a slight negative tilt) with ample instby and
strong deep-layer shear suggests an intensification of convection
will be ongoing immediately upstream of the local area by late
afternoon into early evening. Given the stronger forcing, upscale
growth appears probable as the storms begin to enter the local area
toward sunset and beyond, so the expectation is that the greatest
threat will be strong/damaging straight-line winds, particularly if
the linear structure exhibits some bowing tendencies. The LL bulk
shear vector will be on the order of 40kts at about 260 degrees,
suggesting any N-S oriented segment will bring the potential for
surges of /significant severe/ wind gusts as well as an embedded
tornado risk past 6 PM Sunday. Additionally, steep mid level lapse
rates suggest a large hail potential as well.

Although there are several uncertainties regarding the details of the
event that still need to be determined, we are beginning to see a
clearer picture of the most likely outcome locally. Some of the
details that will ultimately dictate the scope of severe threat will
be how far E the best instby remains intact and whether it will
attempt to pinch-off with SE extent toward/beyond 06z Monday.
Additionally, there are some questions still regarding how much a
bowing/linear segment that would traverse the local area between 00z
and 06z would reduce coverage/intensity of convection along the
front itself, which will be lagging back to the W quite a bit. This
would determine the scope and length of time of greatest severe
threat because any stronger/bowing segment that clears the entire
local area between 00z-06z would likely squash the LL thermodynamic
environment in its wake, suggesting that any storms along the front
after 06z would mainly be non-severe in nature. But this still
remains somewhat in question.

Bottom line is that, with the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic
environment developing, particularly for locales near/W of I-71 where
the best overlap will be, severe storms are likely to evolve late
Sunday evening into early in the overnight. Given the strong westerly
LL bulk shear and at least some veering of winds in the LL profile,
embedded tornadoes will be possible in within the strongest line
segments. Any discrete/cellular activity (favored closer to the Tri-
State and N KY and to the SW of the local area) would only act to
increase that potential (as well as the large hail potential),
although this storm mode appears less likely this far NE into the OH
Vly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As briefly mentioned above, storm mode will play an important role
in which threat dominates Sunday evening into the overnight period.
Forcing and higher values of vertical wind shear will be more
dominant as we go north closer to the surface low and mid-level wave
in the Great Lakes, with instability higher further to the south.
Therefore, we may see more of a linear mode to the north, with
discreet or clustered supercells further south. This aligns with the
Storm Prediction Center`s hatched hail and tornado threat areas just
to our southwest with higher severe wind threats extending into our
western counties. We will need to see how this evolves over the next
24-36 hours to obtain more confidence in the exact timing and
location details of this event.

[tron777]

No changes really from the SPC from this morning. All areas are under the Enhanced risk still. Hatched TOR area is just SW of us. Hatched wind for everyone and hatched hail getting into our SW counties. So in order of hazards the most serious to me are:

1) Damaging winds
2) Large Hail
3) Tornadoes

This could change of course but this is my thinking based on the data at this time. NAM has came down to reality (still has a strong severe wx signal, including tornadoes, but it's not as ominous as a signal as it once was). HRRR is showing isolated severe possible. So as you can see, even the short term models still have some differences as to how bad the event can get.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and I agree the models will vary and they should because its really like trying to get everything in place and they disagree on timing and some of the ingredients. Still a strong sign in my opinion of some strong to severe storms. What the day on Sunday brings before hand can change the later afternoon into early Monday morning forecast.

Starting Wednesday it looks like several rounds of rain and storms. Do these become severe and again to early but 3 or 4 days of moderate to heavy rain could no doubt bring in the topic of flooding. Something to keep us busy this week. Today though is wonderful with warm temps but the lower humidity.

[tpweather]

Just checked out where my son lives and been low to mid 30's all day with light rain. He is expecting between .5 and .8 inches of frz/rain starting tonight lasting until Sunday night. Though they have had some milder days lately a cold damp today and with temps falling overnight it could become quite the mess. Good item is its on a Saturday night through Sunday night so hopefully most folks will not be on the road. He has so many trees at his house so over the next few days once it thaws expect the crackling of trees. Then expecting another storm later next week with more snow and ice expected. So yes spring has sprung but in that part of the world it takes longer and yes some of their worst storms in terms of ice are later in March through mid-April as precip totals tend to be higher

[Bgoney]

From the SPC 1pm update

IMG_3365.jpeg

IL, IN, and OH
Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential.

[tron777]

Just checked out where my son lives and been low to mid 30's all day with light rain. He is expecting between .5 and .8 inches of frz/rain starting tonight lasting until Sunday night. Though they have had some milder days lately a cold damp today and with temps falling overnight it could become quite the mess. Good item is its on a Saturday night through Sunday night so hopefully most folks will not be on the road. He has so many trees at his house so over the next few days once it thaws expect the crackling of trees. Then expecting another storm later next week with more snow and ice expected. So yes spring has sprung but in that part of the world it takes longer and yes some of their worst storms in terms of ice are later in March through mid-April as precip totals tend to be higher

My Aunt in Mio, Mich has 1/4 to 1/3" of ice accum at this time. They are hoping the power doesn't go out.

[tron777]

18Z HRRR has bumped up the severe wx parameters vs its previous run. It is in good agreement with the 18Z NAM.

EDIT #1: 18Z GFS also bumped it up a notch too.

EDIT #2: I think the maps Bgoney posted from the SPC are good going forward for the upcoming event. Worst of it should remain to our SW, but there will still be some issues around here too.

[Bgoney]

Oz Hrrr showing earlier evening storms than previously and then parts of the region getting hit with a second line of storms. Resulting in an additional flash flooding possibility added to the severe aspects. Situation still evolving.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / DAY both reached 77 and CMH 78 on Sat.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nice dose of rain this morning to start a very busy week of weather. Again not many changes today and just watch the day unfold to see if we get a few hours of clearing in the afternoon to make the atmosphere more unstable. Going to be unstable to begin with and the line of storms later this evening will be quick but rather strong if not severe. Main threats will be the straight line winds however we could see some rotation inside these cells so tornado's are not out of the question. Monday and Tuesday seem quiet but cool and then we see the next threat which I will post in the April section.

[Bgoney]

9am update from SPC for the most part unchanged . Counting this morning rains 1-2” totals should be realized, especially where areas get hit with more than one cluster of storms this evening. Already saturated ground in the region so all qpf for this evening will be runoff




Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection.

Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.

[tpweather]

A few items to watch is how much clearing do we see locally and to the west over the next say 6 hours or so.The more sun the more unstable the atmosphere becomes. Dew points are high enough for severe weather and though only near the 60 degree mark this system no doubt is able to produce strong to severe storms without the really high dew points. I would expect most rainfall totals in the .5-1.0 though if you get under a thunderstorm for a few hours those totals can exceed 1 inch. The line of storms later this evening is moving quickly so that helps in keeping totals down somewhat but sometime during the period you may see the line slow down for a brief period and where that occurs and the higher totals are possible. The latest HRRR short term model is showing most folks with around 1 inch and some spots higher but again very sparse with the higher amounts.

[tron777]

Good morning all! The biggest change I see is that the hail threat has been dialed back to 15% and the hatched area is now well to the West. TOR hatched area is still in our SW counties and 45% wind is now in effect for all areas. Damaging winds is still our primary threat, followed by tornadoes then hail. Flooding won't be too bad with this first event. I am more concerned about that once we get into April (as in next week).

Visible is not showing much sun to the west at the moment. Some breaks in ILL but over Indy it is mainly overcast. If that continues, the CAPE won't be so much so the severe threat would be reduced. If we can get a couple hours with some sun breaks today, then that is bad news in terms of moderate CAPE for severe wx to work with. The degree of instability id the deal breaker for me today.