September 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

It’s not a pretty 500mb pattern for cvgland if you want drought relief, But the endless gorgeous days will continue. You know it’s bad when the pattern won’t let anything develop in the GOM during peak tropical season with water temp there 86-90 degrees all season.

I am wondering if the Gulf remains untouched once we get deeper into Fall as well as the upcoming winter, if the above normal SST's wouldn't help fuel storm systems? It's a double edged sword too because as we know, the stronger the storm, the more north it tracks so we could run the risk of lows passing too close to us for an all snow system. I am getting ahead of myself here as I usually do LOL but anyway... We shall see what happens once we get there.

[tron777]

12Z Euro still liking Wed and Thurs for rain and actually gives CVG around a half inch in total over both days. We'll see... I have my doubts as it's a ways out there still and the track of this system has to be right to pull up enough moisture from the Gulf for the Euro's solution to be right.

[tron777]

As of 3:30pm, 84 at CVG. 1 degree to go to make my forecasted high. I'd like to get one day right this week!

[tpweather]

It’s not a pretty 500mb pattern for cvgland if you want drought relief, But the endless gorgeous days will continue. You know it’s bad when the pattern won’t let anything develop in the GOM during peak tropical season with water temp there 86-90 degrees all season.

I agree and this imo could lead to an above normal fall severe season that usually occurs from mid-Oct to late Nov. We will see and hopefully it brings plenty of rainfall and not the severe weather

[Bgoney]

It’s not a pretty 500mb pattern for cvgland if you want drought relief, But the endless gorgeous days will continue. You know it’s bad when the pattern won’t let anything develop in the GOM during peak tropical season with water temp there 86-90 degrees all season.

I am wondering if the Gulf remains untouched once we get deeper into Fall as well as the upcoming winter, if the above normal SST's wouldn't help fuel storm systems? It's a double edged sword too because as we know, the stronger the storm, the more north it tracks so we could run the risk of lows passing too close to us for an all snow system. I am getting ahead of myself here as I usually do LOL but anyway... We shall see what happens once we get there.

It’s amazing to me how the Traditional Se ridge has been displaced for this many months, I just don’t recall that kind of persistence. When does it come back? When it does, is it the MOA Southeast ridges just in time for winter.? Like you always say , we shall see

[tpweather]

As of 3:30pm, 84 at CVG. 1 degree to go to make my forecasted high. I'd like to get one day right this week!

I hit 85 today and it really felt like the warmest day of the week though dew points low. Big temps swings this weekend and some folks will probably get into the upper 40's Saturday night but warm up 25-30 degrees on Sunday. Concerning rainfall and thought the models would trend back to some rainfall next week but I agree Les amounts should be 1/2 or less and again not everyone will be involved. Stubborn pattern as we know but the weather itself has been great except for the lack of rainfall.

[tron777]

It’s not a pretty 500mb pattern for cvgland if you want drought relief, But the endless gorgeous days will continue. You know it’s bad when the pattern won’t let anything develop in the GOM during peak tropical season with water temp there 86-90 degrees all season.

I am wondering if the Gulf remains untouched once we get deeper into Fall as well as the upcoming winter, if the above normal SST's wouldn't help fuel storm systems? It's a double edged sword too because as we know, the stronger the storm, the more north it tracks so we could run the risk of lows passing too close to us for an all snow system. I am getting ahead of myself here as I usually do LOL but anyway... We shall see what happens once we get there.

It’s amazing to me how the Traditional Se ridge has been displaced for this many months, I just don’t recall that kind of persistence. When does it come back? When it does, is it the MOA Southeast ridges just in time for winter.? Like you always say , we shall see

You would expect a SE ridge with a Nina but with a Nino you typically would not. But the weather patterns the last several winters have been anything but typical so I don't really know either to be honest. The ridge has been tough to break over TX and Mexico but it will get broken down eventually. Best case scenario for snow lovers in the winter time would be for it to retrograde back to the Western states and have the STJ undercut it. We saw that a lot in the 1990s with some of those memorable winter storms that impacted us. 2009-2010 was probably the last winter where we had that combination in more recent times.

[tron777]

As of 3:30pm, 84 at CVG. 1 degree to go to make my forecasted high. I'd like to get one day right this week!

I hit 85 today and it really felt like the warmest day of the week though dew points low. Big temps swings this weekend and some folks will probably get into the upper 40's Saturday night but warm up 25-30 degrees on Sunday. Concerning rainfall and thought the models would trend back to some rainfall next week but I agree Les amounts should be 1/2 or less and again not everyone will be involved. Stubborn pattern as we know but the weather itself has been great except for the lack of rainfall.

I'll check my wx station after work to see if I hit 85 or not. I am guessing that I probably did. CVG still maxed out at 84 and has been bouncing back and forth in that 82-84 degree range over the last 30 to 45 mins. 84 is probably it for the Airport. If so 1 degree off isn't too bad. I'll take it. Agree with you Tim on this stubborn weather pattern. It's been wonderful for folks with outdoor plans but tough on nature due to the lack of rain as you said. The rains as we all know will return at some point. Sometime in October is my guess, just not sure yet as to when.

[tron777]

84 here today and CVG 85 officially as of the 5pm climate report. So I did nail it perfectly for the Airport. How about that! Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 85, DAY 83 and CMH 81 on Fri.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Good morning folks! As Eric has alluded too above, the pattern for rainfall is not looking great the next few weeks. I'd say the drought continues at least thru early October the way it's looking right now. Hopefully, we will see a shift towards more El Nino conditions to get the STJ rolling as we get deeper into the new month. For now, gorgeous weather continues... 55 here this morning on our first day of Fall. Upper 40s in outlying areas. Most folks should see U70s to around 80 for highs this weekend with U40s to the mid 50s for lows. For next week, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s with the best rain chances Wed into Thurs the way it is looking right now.

[tpweather]

Good morning folks! As Eric has alluded too above, the pattern for rainfall is not looking great the next few weeks. I'd say the drought continues at least thru early October the way it's looking right now. Hopefully, we will see a shift towards more El Nino conditions to get the STJ rolling as we get deeper into the new month. For now, gorgeous weather continues... 55 here this morning on our first day of Fall. Upper 40s in outlying areas. Most folks should see U70s to around 80 for highs this weekend with U40s to the mid 50s for lows. For next week, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s with the best rain chances Wed into Thurs the way it is looking right now.

This stretch of weather has been wonderful except for the lack of rainfall. Normally would see a bigger influence from the GOM and whether that is rain or higher dew points. Once we break this pattern and can get some cold fronts to head further south towards the western GOM then rain chances should increase. How long that takes is not an easy question as patterns seem to hold somewhat longer than the past. Heading over to trim some trees at my daughters boyfriend house. Will spend a couple of hours and then head back to watch some great college football games today

[tron777]

Per the 12Z GFS, rainfall chances are still showing up for Wed and Thurs. I like 30-40% POPS at this time with amounts 0.25" or less for most people. A few lucky locations may see up to 0.50" if everything works out just right.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon Les. The current pattern is more like a mid-Oct except for the system on the east coast. Why would this be a mid-Oct pattern is systems coming into the northwest and these systems are rather strong and they are able to keep their strength as they head in the central part of the country. Of course being later Sept temps are warmer than mid-Oct. What we are seeing though is a severe season in the central USA that you usually don't see in later Sept but more likely from mid-Oct-later Nov. I believe once this last system leaves the east coast that the Atlantic tropical season is over and also getting more high pressure off the east coast should allow the Western GOM to finally open and the waters down their are just waiting for a system to get going.

[tron777]

We're just waiting on the El Nino to take control Tim and get that STJ rolling so we can get that good moisture return from the Gulf. That looks to be a few weeks away still so for now, the nice weather continues. What can you do? 76 right now IMBY and a nice day to play with my Brother's kids outside.

[tron777]

78 at CVG today, 76 here. After our Wed / Thurs rain chance we look to go dry for a while once again. I see little change to the overall pattern for the next 2 weeks at least. Could be longer...

[MVWxObserver]

Sat night "football" at the GABP as the matey crew edged 'em 13-12!! **SMH**

Currently 54 here in G'ville and progged for around 50 early Sun morning.

[tron777]

Good Sunday morning to you all! Little change to report with our ongoing forecast. The great weather continues as our drought continues to worsen. Wed / Thurs still looking like our best chances to get some dust settlers. Then, we are dry again for a while. High temps primarily will be in the 70s with some lower 80s looking more likely as we close Sept and begin October. Lows mainly in the 50s. With the trough mainly over the West and also with the tropics remaining active, this pattern just isn't going to break anytime soon.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another beautiful day in store. I agree Les that mid-week is the best chance of rainfall but once again models have done a horrible job as early last week most models went rather wet for the upcoming week and then went 180 and showed no rain and of course closer to time some rainfall. I do expect some rainfall but most folks will probably be under 0.25 unless you are lucky enough to be under a round that last several hours. Then late week into the 1st week of Oct we go back into the wonderful weather once again with warm days,cool nights and not much in the way of rainfall. Again this is the dry season but it would be nice to have a 2 day rainfall.

The tropics and not the usual season that we have seen the past few decades and that is systems are forming near the east coast.Those waters have been warmer than normal but you would believe that after the tropical season is over those waters may finally get quite a bit cooler. It seems the waters off the east coast have been warmer than normal for years and maybe this season finally near to below normal.

I do like the waters getting cooler off the northwest coast and I say that because its about a month earlier and this may turn around has we head towards winter.

[tron777]

Good Morning and another beautiful day in store. I agree Les that mid-week is the best chance of rainfall but once again models have done a horrible job as early last week most models went rather wet for the upcoming week and then went 180 and showed no rain and of course closer to time some rainfall. I do expect some rainfall but most folks will probably be under 0.25 unless you are lucky enough to be under a round that last several hours. Then late week into the 1st week of Oct we go back into the wonderful weather once again with warm days,cool nights and not much in the way of rainfall. Again this is the dry season but it would be nice to have a 2 day rainfall.

The tropics and not the usual season that we have seen the past few decades and that is systems are forming near the east coast.Those waters have been warmer than normal but you would believe that after the tropical season is over those waters may finally get quite a bit cooler. It seems the waters off the east coast have been warmer than normal for years and maybe this season finally near to below normal.

I do like the waters getting cooler off the northwest coast and I say that because its about a month earlier and this may turn around has we head towards winter.

Good morning Tim! The warmer then normal Atlantic waters are caused by the persist +AMO phase that the Atlantic has been in for years. I have no idea when a -AMO will return but it has been a long time since we have seen that for sure.

[tpweather]

Gfs coming in rather wet towards the middle of the week. These systems have been rather potent that come across the USA. The problem we have been in the unlucky place. Middle of last week when models went to mainly dry except the cmc I was hesitant because these systems coming across the country seemed more like mid-Oct systems and those tend to bring more rainfall. The western GOM is also trying to open up finally and there is plenty of fuel down there. Will need to watch the cmc and euro today but rainfall totals may need to be raised. I hope that is the case and its funny how models just get thrown out of whack when we have a tropical system near the mainland USA.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has an inch of rain for CVG Wed / Thurs of next week. Euro has been wet as well on the last few runs. I'll believe it when I see it to be quite honest. I still like 0.25" or less with up to 0.50" for a few lucky locations. We had better get a nice return of moisture from the Gulf or those 1" amounts will be dead wrong. That's been the issue... no Gulf moisture return. That keeps the dews down which has been nice, but the precip "dries up" as it tries to push into the OV. We have seen that time and time again the last several weeks.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS has an inch of rain for CVG Wed / Thurs of next week. Euro has been wet as well on the last few runs. I'll believe it when I see it to be quite honest. I still like 0.25" or less with up to 0.50" for a few lucky locations. We had better get a nice return of moisture from the Gulf or those 1" amounts will be dead wrong. That's been the issue... no Gulf moisture return. That keeps the dews down which has been nice, but the precip "dries up" as it tries to push into the OV. We have seen that time and time again the last several weeks.

Hey Les. I am starting to go higher which I should have never went lower knowing how these systems have performed without gom moisture. Yesterday my son got 1.34 inches at this house in Wausau. There is no gom moisture with that system and all we need is the jet to dive and form a trough over us and I believe some decent rains may come this way. Again being in the correct place is key but models are starting to have that place be near us which would be great. I am going on my gut here and should have did that last week and again I will point out models and one the Euro which one day last week showed exactly 0.00 rainfall for 10 days. I will up mine today before the other two models are out and going with 0.50-1.00. These systems are more in line with mid-Oct which has pacific moisture and yes the gom is still trying to get going but strong pieces of energy that come into the pacific coast always needs to be watched as once it gets over the mountains these lows tend to keep their core and that is why I really watch these in the winter.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Sunday morning to you all! Little change to report with our ongoing forecast. The great weather continues as our drought continues to worsen. Wed / Thurs still looking like our best chances to get some dust settlers. Then, we are dry again for a while. High temps primarily will be in the 70s with some lower 80s looking more likely as we close Sept and begin October. Lows mainly in the 50s. With the trough mainly over the West and also with the tropics remaining active, this pattern just isn't going to break anytime soon.

Its disgusting in some ways seeing my old stomping grounds of NC e.g. continually getting an overabundance of liquid gold due to the active tropics as the OV is high and dry. But like you said, Bro, this pattern isn't going to break anytime soon with the given setup.