Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:06 am**

It’s changed over to rain here. Had maybe two inches (that might be generous) before it changed. Mixing with a little sleet at the moment.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:18 am**

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:06 am It’s changed over to rain here. Had maybe two inches (that might be generous) before it changed. Mixing with a little sleet at the moment.

That's not too bad, nothing here. Anybody else have some accumulations?

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:29 am**

Radar shot at 6:15. Probably a bit deceiving near cvgland, if it's light precip it's probably drzzle/mix or all light rain

Screenshot_20230125-062606_Chrome.jpg

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:48 am**

NWS and therefore the boneheaded TV Hypes, sorry, I mean TV Mets, all felt a strong need to overcompensate after Sunday. Strike 2. They blew it. Lots of schools closed have no reason. Nice work on this forum to keep it real.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:49 am**

Good Morning and my total from overnight and let me look out the window one last time and yes the total is zero.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:55 am**

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:48 am NWS and therefore the boneheaded TV Hypes, sorry, I mean TV Mets, all felt a strong need to overcompensate after Sunday. Strike 2. They blew it. Lots of schools closed have no reason. Nice work on this forum to keep it real.

Great Post. I had no ideal why they closed schools the evening before an event that had chances to be a bust. Temps were always marginal and even if you head to Indy where they will get a big thump temp is above 32. I agree an overreaction from the Sunday system. I kept my forecast the same and a bust no doubt.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:04 am**

No doubt anyone giving a forecast the past week have been humbled.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:20 am**

Just looked at AccuWeather for fun. For my area, they say there's a 24% chance of 6"-10" through 7PM Thursday. Uhhhh...

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:33 am**

Schools here closed for an inch of snow. lol

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:40 am**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:33 am Schools here closed for an inch of snow. lol

What happen to the old days when kids had to walk to school 10miles and uphill both ways.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:42 am**

Should not make fun of kids walking to school. My mom did walk to school and it was 5 miles away because they never had a car growing up but this was in the hills of Kentucky.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:43 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:40 am
What happen to the old days when kids had to walk to school 10miles and uphill both ways.

I recall one year it was so icy I couldn’t walk across my neighbors driveway to get to school so I just gave up and went back home lol

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:50 am**

Good morning all! Had a covering of snow here before the changeover and that's all she wrote. 35 degrees and rain now. 0.36" QPF total IMBY at this time. This storm has been working out pretty much as we expected. I did see Met. Paul Poteet on Local 12 up in Oxford with 3" before it changed. I bet Bud up in Somerville did a little bit better since he's even more north. North and especially NW was the place to be as we expected!

Get ready for the winds to 40 mph in gusts this afternoon, 30 mph tonight and about the same for tomorrow. This storm is far from over. Don't forget, we do go back to some snow shower activity overnight tonight and I'm really interested in tomorrow afternoon. We'll have steep lapse rates, high snow squall parameters and falling temps from the 30s into the U20s by then. Localized amounts of an inch are certainly possible where the heavier bursts of snow occur. Some of you will see more snow from that then you did today (which if you had a zero, that isn't difficult obviously)

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:57 am**

Glad some folks got snow last night and even the airport 10 miles from me looks like it got some snow.. Always a tough call and I believe folks on here played it down knowing there was a fine line but never easy trying to get the exact fine line where you go from some snow to no snow. I thought the 1 inch would verify in the 275 loop but the southern and eastern end that never happened. I did watch channel 5 at 5pm last night and Kevin talked about how it was such a fine line between snow and no snow in southern boone,kenton counties and no doubt that was correct. Yes he still had the 1-3 inch area in those areas but again just a few miles made a difference. IMO the snow was not the big issue but closing schools on predictions is never a good ideal. Not sure if the kids are having virtual learning today since that seems like a good option since covid hit a few years ago.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:58 am**

Over reaction from what happened on Sunday. Both Mets and schools.

EDIT: I do think the HRRR seemed to do the best again when the event got closer. It was more granular in the precip and that’s how it went.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:03 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:50 am Good morning all! Had a covering of snow here before the changeover and that's all she wrote. 35 degrees and rain now. 0.36" QPF total IMBY at this time. This storm has been working out pretty much as we expected. I did see Met. Paul Poteet on Local 12 up in Oxford with 3" before it changed. I bet Bud up in Somerville did a little bit better since he's even more north. North and especially NW was the place to be as we expected!

Get ready for the winds to 40 mph in gusts this afternoon, 30 mph tonight and about the same for tomorrow. This storm is far from over. Don't forget, we do go back to some snow shower activity overnight tonight and I'm really interested in tomorrow afternoon. We'll have steep lapse rates, high snow squall parameters and falling temps from the 30s into the U20s by then. Localized amounts of an inch are certainly possible where the heavier bursts of snow occur. Some of you will see more snow from that then you did today (which if you had a zero, that isn't difficult obviously)

Good Morning Les and you hit the nail on the head yesterday saying some folks may get more snow Thursday then Wednesday morning. I agree about the snow squalls and those brief heavy snow showers can cause problems on the roads as it can look like a blizzard for a short period of time and if you are on the road it can become a mess. Years ago I was near Colerain and had a brief but heavy snow shower around 4-5pm. I finally made it home at 9pm. Less than inch fell but roads turned to ice as the sun went down. So timing of show showers make a difference as well and usually mid-day sure it looks bad but most of the time after the snow shower is gone the roads are wet but late afternoon the sun is setting and you lose any heating of the ground is when things can go bad quickly

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:10 am**

Back in the day, when we actually had a winter season, my school at least, rarely called off school the night/day before. The superintendents and others would actually get up in the early morning before busses needed to leave and drive the roads and access the conditions. I know those common sense days are over, I also know we never got a snow day for rain

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:10 am**

Around 3 inches in Huber Heights before changing over to rain and sleet about 7:30.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:17 am**

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:10 am Around 3 inches in Huber Heights before changing over to rain and sleet about 7:30.

At least a fraction of the forecast came through

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:21 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:17 am
dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:10 am Around 3 inches in Huber Heights before changing over to rain and sleet about 7:30.
At least a fraction of the forecast came through

I agree and not a total bust but like many storms somebody is going to get the shaft. Going into next week one item that we have not had in awhile is true arctic air in the central and eastern USA. Going to be a dog fight as some warm moist air will be found especially in Florida and when this happens bigger storm can form. So yes more storms in the extended we just don't know the outcome but as usual we will probably be riding the fence with a few systems.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:30 am**

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:58 am Over reaction from what happened on Sunday. Both Mets and schools.

EDIT: I do think the HRRR seemed to do the best again when the event got closer. It was more granular in the precip and that’s how it went.

Most schools absolutely overreacted thanks to some Mets and social media. Luckily here in Boone Co they did it right. No delays no nothing. Just a regular day here. Yet last night Milford Schools closed and now my brother has an unnecessary house full of kids today.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:32 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:03 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:50 am Good morning all! Had a covering of snow here before the changeover and that's all she wrote. 35 degrees and rain now. 0.36" QPF total IMBY at this time. This storm has been working out pretty much as we expected. I did see Met. Paul Poteet on Local 12 up in Oxford with 3" before it changed. I bet Bud up in Somerville did a little bit better since he's even more north. North and especially NW was the place to be as we expected!

Get ready for the winds to 40 mph in gusts this afternoon, 30 mph tonight and about the same for tomorrow. This storm is far from over. Don't forget, we do go back to some snow shower activity overnight tonight and I'm really interested in tomorrow afternoon. We'll have steep lapse rates, high snow squall parameters and falling temps from the 30s into the U20s by then. Localized amounts of an inch are certainly possible where the heavier bursts of snow occur. Some of you will see more snow from that then you did today (which if you had a zero, that isn't difficult obviously)
Good Morning Les and you hit the nail on the head yesterday saying some folks may get more snow Thursday then Wednesday morning. I agree about the snow squalls and those brief heavy snow showers can cause problems on the roads as it can look like a blizzard for a short period of time and if you are on the road it can become a mess. Years ago I was near Colerain and had a brief but heavy snow shower around 4-5pm. I finally made it home at 9pm. Less than inch fell but roads turned to ice as the sun went down. So timing of show showers make a difference as well and usually mid-day sure it looks bad but most of the time after the snow shower is gone the roads are wet but late afternoon the sun is setting and you lose any heating of the ground is when things can go bad quickly

Thanks Tim! We will need to track the lapse rates and snow squall param. on the SPC Meso Page tomorrow to see how this is looking when that little piece of energy drops in on the backside of this system. This is exactly why this thread goes thru Thurs. I think it'll be interesting to watch how this unfolds.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:35 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:10 am Back in the day, when we actually had a winter season, my school at least, rarely called off school the night/day before. The superintendents and others would actually get up in the early morning before busses needed to leave and drive the roads and access the conditions. I know those common sense days are over, I also know we never got a snow day for rain

Here in Boone Co, they called it off actually a lot more back when I was in school versus now. Kind of funny how different districts work but it all boils down to what kind of superintendent that is running the show.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:36 am**

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:10 am Around 3 inches in Huber Heights before changing over to rain and sleet about 7:30.

Awesome Doug!! Moderate rain falling here washing whatever was left from Sunday away.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:36 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:10 am Back in the day, when we actually had a winter season, my school at least, rarely called off school the night/day before. The superintendents and others would actually get up in the early morning before busses needed to leave and drive the roads and access the conditions. I know those common sense days are over, I also know we never got a snow day for rain

Same here.

If we had any snow before rain, I missed it. Well, my kids are happy.

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