Absolute Vorticity

mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:44 am Boy I sure do like the overnight model runs. The GFS and CMC are looking great for our area

Agreed! Hope to see this trend continue on the 12z runs.

Good Morning and looks like a decent day ahead. Feel like I am looking at a blank slate since I have been out of the loop for nearly a week. Great to come back to at least a chance for some winter weather this weekend. At this point two pieces of energy heading towards us on Friday. One is the clipper coming down from Canada and that piece is getting stronger as it heads southeast. The second is a piece of energy in the southern plains. Where these two decide to dance will be one of the keys to the weather locally. No doubt it will remain cold and precip type looks mainly to be snow. Going to be a high off the eastern seaboard this weekend and starts out fairly strong plus a system off the northeast coast moving away is also key. Does that storm move away quickly and does the high weaken. If those two things happen then the chances for us getting a decent snow will be less. If the high remains strong this can put sort of a traffic jam in the pattern and this will slow down the pattern and this could help us in terms of getting a decent snow. So we have plenty of energy with the clipper and the GOM looks to be open for business but like in life timing is key. Will watch the trends over the next 24 hours and with so many of the pieces of the puzzle thousands of miles away I expect some drastic model changes the next 24 hours and hopefully by Thursday a much clearer picture will happen.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:29 am Good morning all and the models are continuing to throw us a bone. NAM is still fantasy range but even it's north with the low track at 84 hours. versus the low being down along the Gulf Coast. The GFS is wow-wee!!! 6Z run is even more north bringing the low into KY where it dies and does the East Coast transfer to an inland low. Major snow storm for us on the GFS, both the 0Z and 6Z runs. As Mike said, the CMC is playing ball now fully supporting the GFS solution. Euro is still a swing and a miss for us but it's not quite as south as it once was, it is slowly coming north. GEFS is still south of the OP GFS but I am see more members with the N low track then before so it's slowly coming around. EPS is like the OP Euro. We'll see folks but my interest is increasing in this system now due in on Sunday instead of Saturday.

Good Morning Les and great post. My guess if the noon time models continue the trend we may need to have a new topic just for this storm. Again the next 24 hours will be crucial and we know sampling later tonight and Thursday is crucial. At this point I have no feeling how this may turn out but I do know winter weather is likely but how severe is way too early for me to guess. Sunday would be perfect though for a nice snow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:49 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:29 am Good morning all and the models are continuing to throw us a bone. NAM is still fantasy range but even it's north with the low track at 84 hours. versus the low being down along the Gulf Coast. The GFS is wow-wee!!! 6Z run is even more north bringing the low into KY where it dies and does the East Coast transfer to an inland low. Major snow storm for us on the GFS, both the 0Z and 6Z runs. As Mike said, the CMC is playing ball now fully supporting the GFS solution. Euro is still a swing and a miss for us but it's not quite as south as it once was, it is slowly coming north. GEFS is still south of the OP GFS but I am see more members with the N low track then before so it's slowly coming around. EPS is like the OP Euro. We'll see folks but my interest is increasing in this system now due in on Sunday instead of Saturday.

Good Morning Les and great post. My guess if the noon time models continue the trend we may need to have a new topic just for this storm. Again the next 24 hours will be crucial and we know sampling later tonight and Thursday is crucial. At this point I have no feeling how this may turn out but I do know winter weather is likely but how severe is way too early for me to guess. Sunday would be perfect though for a nice snow.

Thanks Tim and good morning to you! I believe the energy will be sampled on Thursday. Probably midday to early afternoon on Thursday if you go by the GFS timing.

This image is geared more for Charles and New England, but you can see the EPS SLP clusters have come west. Most of the members even yesterday at 12Z where near or off the coast. Lot of inland PA members now.


6Z GEFS SLP clusters... lots of northern members.

Continuing with good trends, the MJO is looking very nice according to satellite. Much stronger convection now in phase 8 (The eastern cluster)territory, more so than 7 ,imo.

We are officially in Phase 8 now per the Aussies as of 1/10. Awesome news for the rest of January.

I would definitely agree with the Aussies placement, with the verification from the satellite!!!!

Whether or not this weekend pans out, the pattern going forward IMO thru the end of January is continuing to look favorable for cold and wintry weather. The fun starts obviously with this weekend's system to get things started!

The excitement for the 12Z suite is building.... We'll see if we can real this one in guys! If massive shifts back to the east and south do not happen with the next round of models, then our chances should go up. You typically won't get too many major shifts inside of 96 hours. So after today, if we can get more good runs today, then I think our chances are good on this system. We shall see!

At hr 66 NAM is matching up pretty well with GFS/EU

NAM looks S of its previous run but the surface low is stronger and a tad slower at 84 hours. This is in the NAM's fantasy range still so not quite in its useful range as of yet.

6Z GFS at 90 hours has the low at 1006 MB over NE MS. At 84 hours, the NAM also at 1006 MB but it's only over NE LA at that time.

All in all , a good run from the NAM, nothing outrageous and on the same gameboard as the globals , even in its dart throwing hours.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:47 pm Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

Praying for a speedy recovery for your Mom.

I hate to say this. But I hope the snow stays away. I believe I have the virus. Got a telehealth appointment this afternoon and hoping they will give the order to be tested. My brother has tested positive and I am around him quite abit. Symptoms started Saturday. Been having good days and bad days here.

Back to weather, that 0z gfs run was a doozy last night.

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:26 am I hate to say this. But I hope the snow stays away. I believe I have the virus. Got a telehealth appointment this afternoon and hoping they will give the order to be tested. My brother has tested positive and I am around him quite abit. Symptoms started Saturday. Been having good days and bad days here.

Back to weather, that 0z gfs run was a doozy last night.

I’ve been going through it too. Started feeling sick last Monday and still have some congestion and a cough. No fun!

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:26 am I hate to say this. But I hope the snow stays away. I believe I have the virus. Got a telehealth appointment this afternoon and hoping they will give the order to be tested. My brother has tested positive and I am around him quite abit. Symptoms started Saturday. Been having good days and bad days here.

Back to weather, that 0z gfs run was a doozy last night.

Well that sucks. I had it last winter during the big snows of mid February. Quarantining in my plow truck with a massive headache. Hopefully you are Omicron vs Delta. Best wishes.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:37 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:26 am I hate to say this. But I hope the snow stays away. I believe I have the virus. Got a telehealth appointment this afternoon and hoping they will give the order to be tested. My brother has tested positive and I am around him quite abit. Symptoms started Saturday. Been having good days and bad days here.

Back to weather, that 0z gfs run was a doozy last night.

I’ve been going through it too. Started feeling sick last Monday and still have some congestion and a cough. No fun!

I feel your pain. Hope you continue to get better.

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:38 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:26 am I hate to say this. But I hope the snow stays away. I believe I have the virus. Got a telehealth appointment this afternoon and hoping they will give the order to be tested. My brother has tested positive and I am around him quite abit. Symptoms started Saturday. Been having good days and bad days here.

Back to weather, that 0z gfs run was a doozy last night.

Well that sucks. I had it last winter during the big snows of mid February. Quarantining in my plow truck with a massive headache. Hopefully you are Omicron vs Delta. Best wishes.

I bet that was no fun. Headache is coming and going. Yeah if we get snow, that is what I plan on doing. Going to try to find someone to possibly do walks for me. That way, I am not getting out of the truck. Yes, I hope the test can tell the difference. I had it 2 years ago and it was horrible then. I got my vaxx so I believe that has helped keep the symptoms lesser. Thanks for the wishes. Going to go back to bed and I just got up an hour ago. LOL

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:41 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:37 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:26 am I hate to say this. But I hope the snow stays away. I believe I have the virus. Got a telehealth appointment this afternoon and hoping they will give the order to be tested. My brother has tested positive and I am around him quite abit. Symptoms started Saturday. Been having good days and bad days here.

Back to weather, that 0z gfs run was a doozy last night.

I’ve been going through it too. Started feeling sick last Monday and still have some congestion and a cough. No fun!

I feel your pain. Hope you continue to get better.

Same to you, my friend!

Just wanted to say hello all! Missed you guys. Anything exciting happening?

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:48 am Just wanted to say hello all! Missed you guys. Anything exciting happening?

DAVEEEEEE! Glad you are back my friend!

Another nice run folks from the 12Z GFS. It is south of 6Z but 6Z was so amp'ed up we can afford a tick south anyway lol Has the primary low working up into Eastern TN before doing the transfer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:47 pm Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

Hey Tim, I'll say prayers for you're mom and for you too, I've been there!