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Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:54 pm
by MVWxObserver
HAPPY VETERANS DAY TO ALL AV VETS AND VET FAMILIES!! 
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:15 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:45 pm
After the cold first week , we are now close to normal and should stay there to finish off the first half of November, so that worked out pretty good. Question now is how does the second half go. Looks like more of the same with the pattern staying in a quasi- progressive pattern. 3-5days of slightly below then 3-5 days above. Doesn't appear to be anything way above/below that is sustainable. -EPO/+PNA comes and goes to quickly to really keep the cold/warmth entrenched in the lower 48. Models are not in tune with what the PAC is producing as they show something different in that area daily.
Completely agree... wonderful post! The model swings are terrible! Forget the long term. Even with the short term, look at the ever changing solutions for the clipper on Sunday as an example. It's awful. Models just aren't quite sure how to handle the Pacific pattern as it's in flux too as you mentioned. I hate having to take things day by day because you know how much of a long term guy that I am... but I probably don't really have a choice right now but to do just that.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:17 pm
by tron777
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:19 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:39 pm
Getting nice and cold in Alaska and starting to see some temps getting near -20 in the interior. They do have a nice snow cover so that helps in getting some nice cold temps. Very nice to see some colder temps in the northern regions of the NH. Siberia is still around average but of course still cold with a few temps near -30. Getting some snows in southern Canada as well and of course some in the northern plains. We are still two weeks away from Thanksgiving and I like what is starting to happen in the northern hemisphere
I think we can all agree Tim on the cold / snow cover that it is building nicely. No question about that. The question is... how will the cold air be delivered to the Lower 48? Out West? Eastern US? Or does it stay bottled up in Canada for a while. Guidance is all over the place as I mentioned in my response to Bgoney's post so we'll have to wait and see as much as I hate waiting lol
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:22 pm
by tron777
My final total is 0.61". CVG 0.73" and the Boone Co mesonet site 0.77". Down to 50 degrees imby as the front has passed and the cooler air is starting to come in now. I say cool because the colder air won't be here until the next front passes tomorrow afternoon. We're talking highs 40 to 45 and lows U20s to L30s all weekend long as well as Monday of next week before we moderate a bit as previously discussed.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:50 pm
by MVWxObserver
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:44 pm
by MVWxObserver
My gauge picked up .20"
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:54 am
by Bgoney
Oh wow, historic weather anniversary . If this happened today, we would have to pretend that it was 100% due to fossil fuels
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/nov_11_1911_cold_front
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 6:31 am
by tron777
Good Friday morning all! A nice start to the day will give way to clouds and a few showers mainly from the river counties on south. A few flakes perhaps as well tonight / early Sat? We'll see. Then the clipper on Sunday bringing rain and snow to the area. Again no issues expected. We're just talking possible first flakes here. Some of you won't see any. We warm up with 60s on Wed with our next front due in by Thurs. then we drop again.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:31 am
by cloudy72
HRRR hinting at a rain/sleet squall in I-70 land later this evening? Has surface temps around 40 so we shall see! Something to keep an eye on. Definitely NOT expecting road issues, but it would be cool to witness!
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 9:40 am
by tron777
Bgoney mentioned this the other day but we'll see what the sunshine does this morning to the lapse rates. Would love to see some convective showers produce sleet, graupel, or snow.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:08 am
by tron777
12Z NAM has a little band of snow with the clipper Sun afternoon. Hopefully it is heavy enough to produce snow and not rain. Precip rate will make a difference for sure in this marginal set up.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:39 am
by tron777
Winds are starting to pick up again. Gusting 20-30 mph attm. that should increase to near 40 mph again this afternoon much like we saw yesterday. Clouds will eventually increase along with a chance for rain... perhaps mixing with some sleet or snow tonight or early in the morning.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:58 am
by tron777
12z GFS is furthest north still with the clipper. Just barely grazes Cincy on south with a touch if rain... maybe a flurry? Foreign models have been the most south for the last few days which gives us a better shot at flakes.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 12:39 pm
by tron777
Rain showers are starting to gather to our SW ahead of the next frontal system. 51 / 34 at CVG as of 12pm so a little dry air to overcome before anything will hit the ground. However, that should cause surface temps to fall a little bit as well.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:36 pm
by tron777
Temps are slowly falling now... no precip yet as we still have some dry air to overcome. Winds continue to crank and leaves continue to fly under overcast skies.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:51 pm
by snowbo
I'm seeing brine on some of the roads around here. Not sure what they are expecting - maybe its just a practice run.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:06 pm
by tron777
CVG is now reporting light rain and 47. 47 here also, and I can barely see it but the droplets are really tiny.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:06 pm
by tron777
snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:51 pm
I'm seeing brine on some of the roads around here. Not sure what they are expecting - maybe its just a practice run.
Wow.. what a waste of tax payer dollars. Ground is way too warm regardless of what happens.
Never did care for that brine anyway and I've always thought of it as a joke.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:30 pm
by tron777
18Z NAM continues to show a burst of snow Sunday morning changing or mixing with some rain in the afternoon with the clipper. If correct, we all would see first flakes of the season if that doesn't occur for your particular hood tonight.
NAMed.png
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:51 pm
by cloudy72
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:30 pm
18Z NAM continues to show a burst of snow Sunday morning changing or mixing with some rain in the afternoon with the clipper. If correct, we all would see first flakes of the season if that doesn't occur for your particular hood tonight.
NAMed.png
Big kudos to Doug - bro you picked the 14th right on the nose in the snowfall contest for first 0.1" at CVG!!! I know it hasn't actually happened, however your chances look quite good for this!
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:52 pm
by tron777
Quick long term post... GFS and GEFS aren't buying it but the OP Euro looked pretty cold near the end of its run and the EPS also looks decent for cold as well esp after Thanksgiving. As usual... we shall see.
EPS.png
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:52 pm
by tron777
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:51 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:30 pm
18Z NAM continues to show a burst of snow Sunday morning changing or mixing with some rain in the afternoon with the clipper. If correct, we all would see first flakes of the season if that doesn't occur for your particular hood tonight.
NAMed.png
Big kudos to Doug - bro you picked the 14th right on the nose in the snowfall contest for first 0.1" at CVG!!! I know it hasn't actually happened, however your chances look quite good for this!
I would gladly accept Doug's win for this if it were to occur. Tim and I picked the 25th.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 4:39 pm
by tron777
42 here and at CVG.... 0.02" here for rain and 0.01" at CVG.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:08 pm
by tron777
18Z GFS is a little further south finally with the clipper but is mostly rain down here with a better chance for flakes mixed in for I-70. I like the idea of this thing coming in Sunday morning... going with the faster timing and I think snow to start then rain. No problems obviously but I am going with the first flakes of the season for most folks. We'll see how the call goes of course.
