Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:59 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:52 am We of course warm up next week but a new rou d of cold will be lurking in the first week of May . GFS with what would be an impressive snowfall forecast for the heart of winter, over the next 2 weeks

Yeah the tellies support this idea as well with the MJO drifting into Phase 1 in the first week of May and hints of the EPO turning negative again.

Why can't we see this Nov - Mar? That would be perfect then let it do whatever the remaining months of the year.

Recurving Surgae may be the culprit here as it appears to help enhance the blocking over the top (Greenland high/-NAO and Alaska/Canada high/-Epo, for a time

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am Why can't we see this Nov - Mar? That would be perfect then let it do whatever the remaining months of the year.

I was about to say the same, Les! Once we get to May, I am in severe storm and warm weather mode! Enough with this cold air!

I did get to see snow on my B-day in May once. 5/5/92 is when it occurred. I wouldn't mind that again, but otherwise, bring on some nicer weather. I am all for it.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/04/22/goode- ... blog-live/

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:14 am Sometimes you just have to laugh.......has TWC ever had a monthly temp forecast of below normal for the country in the PC/climate alarmist era?


wsi_may_0410.jpg

Shoot, they might as well take off the pink, purple, blue, and yellow (below normal and normal) off the chart as they'll never use it on their warm bias maps.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:16 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:59 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:52 am We of course warm up next week but a new rou d of cold will be lurking in the first week of May . GFS with what would be an impressive snowfall forecast for the heart of winter, over the next 2 weeks

Yeah the tellies support this idea as well with the MJO drifting into Phase 1 in the first week of May and hints of the EPO turning negative again.

Why can't we see this Nov - Mar? That would be perfect then let it do whatever the remaining months of the year.

Recurving Surgae may be the culprit here as it appears to help enhance the blocking over the top (Greenland high/-NAO and Alaska/Canada high/-Epo, for a time

Is that Typhoon now supposed to re-curve? A few days ago it had looked like that it was going to keep going west then dissipate. If it does do the ole re-curve that I agree, it would make sense that we may not be quite done yet with frosty conditions.

Les, here is a fantastic summary from yesterday from the JTWC

WDPN33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY SURIGAE CROSSED A SIGNIFICANT CHECKPOINT
DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND BEGAN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE EYE HAS CONSTRICTED SLIGHTLY AND
IS BEGINNING TO BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. MSI STILL SHOWS A VIGOROUS AND
WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A 45NM EYE WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD THAT
IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURIGAE FEELS THE
EFFECTS OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. BASED ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM IS ON A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND. BOTH SUBJECTIVE
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT (PGTW T5.5,
RCTP T5.0, RJTD T5.5, KNES T5.0), LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 100
KTS INITIAL INTENSITY.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SURIGAE WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTERLY BEARING AND WEAKEN
STEADILY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE EYE FILLING AND THE
CLOUD SHIELD STRETCHING AS IT DOES SO. ANALYSIS OF STORM CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING IN
THE NEAR TERM. TWO MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE ASIA
CONTINENT WILL AFFECT THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE
FIRST WILL BE A NEAR MISS AS SURIGAE TRACKS SOUTH OF OKINAWA. IT
WILL STRETCH AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT NOT PICK IT UP AND CARRY IT
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FIRST TROUGH IT WILL NUDGE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 48
AND 72. A SECOND, DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER THE GOBI DESERT WILL PICK UP THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 72
AND LEAD TO THE INITIATION OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHT THROUGH TAU 72 (NEAR THE 135TH MERIDIAN), THEN
BEGINS TO SPREAD AND VARY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE PROCESS
OF ABSORPTION INTO THE THICKNESS RIBBON (BAROCLINIC ZONE).
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STEADY AND LINEAR DECLINE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. DESPITE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS THE
LACK OF RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND THE COMING STRETCHING OF THE
WINDFIELDS BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MAKE FOR CONSIDERABLY LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII.
C. GUIDANCE HAS CRYSTALLIZED REGARDING TY SURIGAE?S TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY PAST TAU 120. THE GFS SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DECAPITATION SCENARIO, HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERLIES AND RESULTS IN A MEANDERING LOW LEVEL
VORTEX. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE A MODEL OUTLIER. A MORE
STANDARD CASE OF ABSORPTION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITION
TO A MID-LATITUDE LOW IS BECOMING MORE CONVINCING. ASIDE FROM GFS,
PHASE-BASED GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO A
COLD CORE. BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO, ALBEIT WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN DESIRED GIVEN THE RECENT OUTSTANDING
PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS MODEL. THE HEARTENING NEWS IS THAT EVEN IF
THE GFS SOLUTION DOES MANIFEST, THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL VORTEX WILL
BE SO WEAK AND FAR FROM LAND AS TO BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE JTWC
TRACK STAYS VERY TIGHT WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN IS HEDGED
A LITTLE EQUATORWARD OF CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND JGSM
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS THAT OF A TEXT-BOOK MID-
LATITUDE TRANSITION AND IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OTHER GUIDANCE.
BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72 (25/00Z) THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS
WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AND THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE ON
INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. A BRIEF BUMP IN
INTENSITY WILL OCCUR AS IT FUSES WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
BECOMES A VIGOROUS STORM FORCE LOW WHILE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO.//
NNNN

Thanks Bgoney… awesome summary indeed! I know we talk about recurving typhoons in the Fall and early Winter and how they can influence the pattern with a down stream trough (eventually) over the East. In the Spring, does a recurving typhoon have the same impact since it is a different time of the year? This should be a good learning experience.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:54 am Thanks Bgoney… awesome summary indeed! I know we talk about recurving typhoons in the Fall and early Winter and how they can influence the pattern with a down stream trough (eventually) over the East. In the Spring, does a recurving typhoon have the same impact since it is a different time of the year? This should be a good learning experience.

It will for sure. When it gets flushed into the flow in the coming days and in combination with a phase 7/8 MJO , which a few short months ago would have meant huge rains for rain hungry Caleefornya, but probably not in late April. Probably moisture will be focused in northern Cal and WA/OR

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:54 am Thanks Bgoney… awesome summary indeed! I know we talk about recurving typhoons in the Fall and early Winter and how they can influence the pattern with a down stream trough (eventually) over the East. In the Spring, does a recurving typhoon have the same impact since it is a different time of the year? This should be a good learning experience.

It will for sure. When it gets flushed into the flow in the coming days and in combination with a phase 7/8 MJO , which a few short months ago would have meant huge rains for rain hungry Caleefornya, but probably not in late April. Probably moisture will be focused in northern Cal and WA/OR

If that is the case and the trough settles in there... could mean warmth and severe wx also for us. So do we get stormier due to this feature or do we turn colder one more time? We will have to give it a week or so before making that determination.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:54 am Thanks Bgoney… awesome summary indeed! I know we talk about recurving typhoons in the Fall and early Winter and how they can influence the pattern with a down stream trough (eventually) over the East. In the Spring, does a recurving typhoon have the same impact since it is a different time of the year? This should be a good learning experience.

It will for sure. When it gets flushed into the flow in the coming days and in combination with a phase 7/8 MJO , which a few short months ago would have meant huge rains for rain hungry Caleefornya, but probably not in late April. Probably moisture will be focused in northern Cal and WA/OR

If that is the case and the trough settles in there... could mean warmth and severe wx also for us. So do we get stormier due to this feature or do we turn colder one more time? We will have to give it a week or so before making that determination.

Hi Les/Bgoney, isn't it awfully early for western Pacific typhoon season to begin? I wonder what the driving force is going on in the Pacific to do this?

Radar showing pretty decent shower coverage across the area currently.

12z NAM keeps the soaker idea for Saturday with about 0.70" at CVG.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:16 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:59 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:52 am We of course warm up next week but a new rou d of cold will be lurking in the first week of May . GFS with what would be an impressive snowfall forecast for the heart of winter, over the next 2 weeks

Yeah the tellies support this idea as well with the MJO drifting into Phase 1 in the first week of May and hints of the EPO turning negative again.

Why can't we see this Nov - Mar? That would be perfect then let it do whatever the remaining months of the year.

Recurving Surgae may be the culprit here as it appears to help enhance the blocking over the top (Greenland high/-NAO and Alaska/Canada high/-Epo, for a time

Great Post and I talked about this the other day because having a tropical system in the Philippines is common but rare in April and also a cat 5 even more rare and I do believe this will help with enhancement of the blocking.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:58 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:54 am Thanks Bgoney… awesome summary indeed! I know we talk about recurving typhoons in the Fall and early Winter and how they can influence the pattern with a down stream trough (eventually) over the East. In the Spring, does a recurving typhoon have the same impact since it is a different time of the year? This should be a good learning experience.

It will for sure. When it gets flushed into the flow in the coming days and in combination with a phase 7/8 MJO , which a few short months ago would have meant huge rains for rain hungry Caleefornya, but probably not in late April. Probably moisture will be focused in northern Cal and WA/OR

If that is the case and the trough settles in there... could mean warmth and severe wx also for us. So do we get stormier due to this feature or do we turn colder one more time? We will have to give it a week or so before making that determination.

Hi Les/Bgoney, isn't it awfully early for western Pacific typhoon season to begin? I wonder what the driving force is going on in the Pacific to do this?

Hey Joe , yes it is . I think La Nina had something to do with it . Endless Easterlies for much of winter pooled a ton of warm water in the west pac and it just needed a trigger, phase 7/8 of MJO for ripe conditions for things to get going

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:13 pm 12z NAM keeps the soaker idea for Saturday with about 0.70" at CVG.

1/2" or so to me is a good call. If the track is far enough south then an inch is possible.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:18 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:16 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:59 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:52 am We of course warm up next week but a new rou d of cold will be lurking in the first week of May . GFS with what would be an impressive snowfall forecast for the heart of winter, over the next 2 weeks

Yeah the tellies support this idea as well with the MJO drifting into Phase 1 in the first week of May and hints of the EPO turning negative again.

Why can't we see this Nov - Mar? That would be perfect then let it do whatever the remaining months of the year.

Recurving Surgae may be the culprit here as it appears to help enhance the blocking over the top (Greenland high/-NAO and Alaska/Canada high/-Epo, for a time

Great Post and I talked about this the other day because having a tropical system in the Philippines is common but rare in April and also a cat 5 even more rare and I do believe this will help with enhancement of the blocking.

Ironically… there is no set season for tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific. The Eastern Pacific season I believes starts on May 1st or May 15th (can't exactly remember) and runs thru the end of Nov. We know the Atlantic basin also has a season. But I think the waters are so warm in the West Pac, that they don't have a season in that basin. Tropical cyclones can occur at anytime of the year if the conditions are right.

12Z GFS coming in with 0.36" of rain on Sat for CVG.

Les you are correct about the pacific tropical season as it is a year long event. My point is in April getting one in the Philippines is not common but it has happened but getting a cat 5 is even more rare and sort of like getting accumulating snow in our area during late April.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:37 pm Les you are correct about the pacific tropical season as it is a year long event. My point is in April getting one in the Philippines is not common but it has happened but getting a cat 5 is even more rare and sort of like getting accumulating snow in our area during late April.

I very much agree that it is very rare to get such a strong storm this early. No doubt about it. Here is some interesting climo for typhoons and their formation.

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typho ... on.html.en

We should remain dry for the rest of today and tomorrow. A wet Saturday as we've been saying, then I still like the dry and warming trend idea Sun - Wed. I like the 60s on Sun, the 70s for Mon, 80+ on Tues and even Wed as well. I think our next front and perhaps, strong t-storm chance will be in here by Thursday of next week the way things look to me attm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:50 pm We should remain dry for the rest of today and tomorrow. A wet Saturday as we've been saying, then I still like the dry and warming trend idea Sun - Wed. I like the 60s on Sun, the 70s for Mon, 80+ on Tues and even Wed as well. I think our next front and perhaps, strong t-storm chance will be in here by Thursday of next week the way things look to me attm.

Be nice to get a couple rounds of rain over the next week. Nothing heavy but some decent shots of rain would be nice. Down here expecting some heavy rain Saturday and 1-2 inches likely. That is good since it has been dry lately plus getting close to summer down here.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:50 pm We should remain dry for the rest of today and tomorrow. A wet Saturday as we've been saying, then I still like the dry and warming trend idea Sun - Wed. I like the 60s on Sun, the 70s for Mon, 80+ on Tues and even Wed as well. I think our next front and perhaps, strong t-storm chance will be in here by Thursday of next week the way things look to me attm.

Be nice to get a couple rounds of rain over the next week. Nothing heavy but some decent shots of rain would be nice. Down here expecting some heavy rain Saturday and 1-2 inches likely. That is good since it has been dry lately plus getting close to summer down here.

We could use some rain for sure here locally and a half inch (if it occurs) on Saturday is perfect and by Thurs we'll be needing more by then too so right now, things are setting up nicely in that dept. Not too dry but not a soggy mess either.

12Z Euro checking in with 0.25" at CVG for Saturday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:55 pm We could use some rain for sure here locally and a half inch (if it occurs) on Saturday is perfect and by Thurs we'll be needing more by then too so right now, things are setting up nicely in that dept. Not too dry but not a soggy mess either.

Here is the past 30 day Precip anomaly - most of us have been drier than normal as you indicated so some more rain is definitely welcomed!

Thanks for the map, Mike! Always helps explain things. We are down in the rainfall dept but not terribly so since we're not to the heat of summer yet. We def want rain before that time comes for sure. So like in another month, we do not want to be this dry is basically what I mean.