Absolute Vorticity

CPC Soil Anomaly moisture change from 8/31 thru 9/20.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:25 pm Lol Tim , we’re not going to agree on this. Of course compared to western droughts ours are short term , but I think it’s wrong to compare the two . Our 3,4 or 5 month droughts can and do have many effects and unfortunately becoming more pronounced and occurring more frequently

Hey Bgoney and what is good about this country we are aloud to disagree. I understand certain things are more important to folks than other folks and that is the way it should be. This happens to be low on my list and high on others and again that is great. Three things you never talk about to relatives or friends is religion,politics and weather lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:25 pm Lol Tim , we’re not going to agree on this. Of course compared to western droughts ours are short term , but I think it’s wrong to compare the two . Our 3,4 or 5 month droughts can and do have many effects and unfortunately becoming more pronounced and occurring more frequently

Hey Bgoney and what is good about this country we are aloud to disagree. I understand certain things are more important to folks than other folks and that is the way it should be. This happens to be low on my list and high on others and again that is great. Three things you never talk about to relatives or friends is religion,politics and weather lol.

I do talk about those things sometimes (weather all the time) so that might explain why I have a low amount of friends!

I checked the 12Z GEFS and 12Z EPS which is coming out now, and both show a stout Great Lakes ridge and it gets stronger with each run. Thus, why we are seeing the reduction in rain chances for next week. It is what it is unfortunately.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:38 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:25 pm Lol Tim , we’re not going to agree on this. Of course compared to western droughts ours are short term , but I think it’s wrong to compare the two . Our 3,4 or 5 month droughts can and do have many effects and unfortunately becoming more pronounced and occurring more frequently

Hey Bgoney and what is good about this country we are aloud to disagree. I understand certain things are more important to folks than other folks and that is the way it should be. This happens to be low on my list and high on others and again that is great. Three things you never talk about to relatives or friends is religion,politics and weather lol.

I do talk about those things sometimes (weather all the time) so that might explain why I have a low amount of friends!

Les I can add music to that list as well and I sometimes have a hard time understanding what folks see in certain musicians.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:38 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:25 pm Lol Tim , we’re not going to agree on this. Of course compared to western droughts ours are short term , but I think it’s wrong to compare the two . Our 3,4 or 5 month droughts can and do have many effects and unfortunately becoming more pronounced and occurring more frequently

Hey Bgoney and what is good about this country we are aloud to disagree. I understand certain things are more important to folks than other folks and that is the way it should be. This happens to be low on my list and high on others and again that is great. Three things you never talk about to relatives or friends is religion,politics and weather lol.

I do talk about those things sometimes (weather all the time) so that might explain why I have a low amount of friends!

Les I can add music to that list as well and I sometimes have a hard time understanding what folks see in certain musicians.

Thanks for the reminder Tim! I love my classic rock! Nothing better then some good guitar and drum solos! Back to the weather and 80 might be it for CVG today. I busted badly and you were much closer then I was. We shall see what tomorrow brings. I'm still going with 85 as I expect wall to wall sunshine unlike today.

Bgoney makes a good point about short term droughts and they are not all the same. This past Jan1-March31st we were wet locally. The growing season and just taking Apr 1st- Sept 20th we are about 4 inches below normal which is 20p/c and no doubt will cause some short term problems. Saying that the period June 21-Sept 20th we are less than 1/4 of an inch below normal. Saying that I am not sure how spread out the rain was during this period and did we get much of it with a few storms. That happens in the summer quite often and you can be 20p/c above normal but it happens with 3 storms but also you can be 20p/c below normal and you got 1/2 inch of rain every week.

Would love to talk to some old-time farmers and hear what they would say about the current climate. That is their life and have seen it all for decades and would love to hear about stories from the 1930's and the heat and drought though their were years in the 1930's that had above normal rainfall and below normal temps.

Really at the end of the day we are talking about such a short period of time the earth has been around and even a 100 years is a blip on the radar. Okay that is my final spill on this topic and sometimes folks just disagree and that is just fine.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:05 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:38 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:25 pm Lol Tim , we’re not going to agree on this. Of course compared to western droughts ours are short term , but I think it’s wrong to compare the two . Our 3,4 or 5 month droughts can and do have many effects and unfortunately becoming more pronounced and occurring more frequently

Hey Bgoney and what is good about this country we are aloud to disagree. I understand certain things are more important to folks than other folks and that is the way it should be. This happens to be low on my list and high on others and again that is great. Three things you never talk about to relatives or friends is religion,politics and weather lol.

I do talk about those things sometimes (weather all the time) so that might explain why I have a low amount of friends!

Les I can add music to that list as well and I sometimes have a hard time understanding what folks see in certain musicians.

Thanks for the reminder Tim! I love my classic rock! Nothing better then some good guitar and drum solos! Back to the weather and 80 might be it for CVG today. I busted badly and you were much closer then I was. We shall see what tomorrow brings. I'm still going with 85 as I expect wall to wall sunshine unlike today.

No doubt the sun makes a difference this time of year. I am still not sold on no rain next week and when I see systems that are rather strong coming into the northwest I always pay attention because the core of these systems are usually strong and don't give up completely. Of course we see this in the winter quite often. The low to the east will play a big part in next weeks weather. If this becomes stronger that is likely to form a stronger ridge which would no doubt play a part with systems coming in from the west. Of course if this system is weaker and moves faster then the ridge may not be as strong.

The weather is rather boring for us but the east coast is very busy and also southeast Alaska which has very wet the past week and continues over the next few days. It is normally a very quiet time weather wise but I would love to have something a little closer that we can follow.

Tornado watch in parts of the western plains. Some folks are getting active weather and this time of year is usually not prime tornado season.

I love the discussion that we've all had today on our forum! Whether we agree or disagree it doesn't matter. I just love the discussion period because it is good for us to work together as a team to learn more and more each day. We can learn things from each others posts is the point I am trying to make.

Hey Tim... Did you see the first Winter Weather Advisories of the season for the Lower 48 in the Mountains of Montana and Idaho? We are getting closer my friend each day to our favorite season!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:48 pm Hey Tim... Did you see the first Winter Weather Advisories of the season for the Lower 48 in the Mountains of Montana and Idaho? We are getting closer my friend each day to our favorite season!

I sure did Les and forgot to mention that earlier. Always get excited when I see these advisories. Heading up to Wisconsin at the end of October so you never know if it might snow up there. They can get some snows in late Oct and early Nov. Of course if it snows may be hard to get me back home lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:48 pm Hey Tim... Did you see the first Winter Weather Advisories of the season for the Lower 48 in the Mountains of Montana and Idaho? We are getting closer my friend each day to our favorite season!

I sure did Les and forgot to mention that earlier. Always get excited when I see these advisories. Heading up to Wisconsin at the end of October so you never know if it might snow up there. They can get some snows in late Oct and early Nov. Of course if it snows may be hard to get me back home lol

No doubt! I would feel the exact same way LOL I don't know how often you'll be up there this winter but when you are, enjoy it and hopefully the pattern works out. Then bring some down to us when you come back home, will ya? Because if you're getting snow up there, then you know it's a cutter system for us down here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:46 pm I love the discussion that we've all had today on our forum! Whether we agree or disagree it doesn't matter. I just love the discussion period because it is good for us to work together as a team to learn more and more each day. We can learn things from each others posts is the point I am trying to make.

I agree Les and discussion is always important and I believe on this forum we have quite a few folks who know their stuff. Yes we make mistakes but we don't use excuses and hopefully learn from those mistakes.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:53 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:48 pm Hey Tim... Did you see the first Winter Weather Advisories of the season for the Lower 48 in the Mountains of Montana and Idaho? We are getting closer my friend each day to our favorite season!

I sure did Les and forgot to mention that earlier. Always get excited when I see these advisories. Heading up to Wisconsin at the end of October so you never know if it might snow up there. They can get some snows in late Oct and early Nov. Of course if it snows may be hard to get me back home lol

No doubt! I would feel the exact same way LOL I don't know how often you'll be up there this winter but when you are, enjoy it and hopefully the pattern works out. Then bring some down to us when you come back home, will ya? Because if you're getting snow up there, then you know it's a cutter system for us down here.

Les not sure exactly how many times I will head north but no doubt if I happen to see a pattern where they may get a blizzard or huge snow I may need to take a road trip lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:53 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:48 pm Hey Tim... Did you see the first Winter Weather Advisories of the season for the Lower 48 in the Mountains of Montana and Idaho? We are getting closer my friend each day to our favorite season!

I sure did Les and forgot to mention that earlier. Always get excited when I see these advisories. Heading up to Wisconsin at the end of October so you never know if it might snow up there. They can get some snows in late Oct and early Nov. Of course if it snows may be hard to get me back home lol

No doubt! I would feel the exact same way LOL I don't know how often you'll be up there this winter but when you are, enjoy it and hopefully the pattern works out. Then bring some down to us when you come back home, will ya? Because if you're getting snow up there, then you know it's a cutter system for us down here.

Les not sure exactly how many times I will head north but no doubt if I happen to see a pattern where they may get a blizzard or huge snow I may need to take a road trip lol.

And take some pics too for us snow starved weenies down here.

80 officially at CVG today, 81 for my hood.

CVG reached 80, DAY 82 and CMH 83 for today.

Good morning all and TGIF!!! We are starting off in the low 60s this morning so the mid 80s should be achievable today with more sun and less clouds. Then, we begin to cool down over the weekend with lower dews as well on the backside of the tropical system off the SE Coast. We need the rain of course, but for weekend outdoor plans, the weather is exceptional!

My updated call for rain chances next week will be to go with 30-40% coverage Wed and Thurs. At this time, this time period looks to be our best chance. Some folks of course will get very little, others may get up to a half inch. This is still a ways out there in model land so look for potential forecast changes down the road. It's the best I can do guys for rain chances unfortunately.

The tropical system is just what the doctor ordered for much of the mid Atlantic region, a good chunk has been in drought this summer also

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2023 7:55 am The tropical system is just what the doctor ordered for much of the mid Atlantic region, a good chunk has been in drought this summer also

The West and the Rockies are getting some much needed moisture also from the trough being out that way. Hopefully we can turn our drought around in October here in the OV.

EDIT: I got a shot out from Brian! LesLoveSnow is my Youtube username.

Good afternoon all! Much warmer out there today as expected with CVG checking in with 81 degrees as of 1pm. Let's see how close we can get to my 85 degree target for today. 12Z GFS now has small shower chances Tues then mainly dry thereafter. Model solutions for next week keep changing due to the speed of the tropical systems exit to our East which dictates the speed at which the next system will move in from the West. Also, the track of our system for next week also varies on the guidance. Bottom line... the forecast for next week is a bit uncertain as to the best days for rain. What I think that is more certain are the amounts. It is looking to be on the light side so really no relief to the drought is coming anytime soon. I don't see a lot of precip at all in the next week to 10 days. We'll see if anything changes going forward but for now, I expect the drought to worsen over the next couple of weeks. Don't be surprised if a portion of AV Country gets into the D1 or moderate drought category in future drought updates.

EDIT: Even the 12Z Canadian model, which was the wettest model, is also backing down for amounts next week from what it once showed. 12Z GEFS Mean has between 0.15 to 0.40" of rain (Less West more East) for the region from now thru the end of the month.

It’s not a pretty 500mb pattern for cvgland if you want drought relief, But the endless gorgeous days will continue. You know it’s bad when the pattern won’t let anything develop in the GOM during peak tropical season with water temp there 86-90 degrees all season.