Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
I believe there was a tornado emergency issued there earlier which hopefully saved lives.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:44 pm Les I just saw reports from a city named Pasadena,Tx which is 15 miles southeast of Houston. The local police chief mentioned it was the worse damage he had ever seen there and that is 25 years. He called the damage catastrophic with many folks stranded on the highways and several vehicles overturned.
Yeah, not good at all. LSR from NWS in Houston:tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:44 pm Les I just saw reports from a city named Pasadena,Tx which is 15 miles southeast of Houston. The local police chief mentioned it was the worse damage he had ever seen there and that is 25 years. He called the damage catastrophic with many folks stranded on the highways and several vehicles overturned.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0219 PM TORNADO 3 SSE SOUTH HOUSTON 29.62N 95.20W
01/24/2023 HARRIS TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
TORNADO MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY.
RADAR CONFIRMED NEAR I-45 AND BELTWAY 8
(SOUTH). TORNADO CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH PASADENA, DEER PARK AND THE HOUSTON
SHIP CHANNEL. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED.
UNKNOWN INTENSITY. UNKNOWN INJURIES AND/OR
DEATHS. STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
Moving in a little faster I believe. We got that nice east wind so temps are not rising like you sometimes with a system like this. My current temp is 36
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:25 pmHey Brice! How's it going? Haven't seen you around in a long time. Hope all is well!briceg09 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:32 pm Make sure you guys are checking https://mping.ou.edu/display/ and https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
If the models show different conditions than what is on the ground, then they will probably be wrong about what will happen here. We need to check downstream to make a nowcast for us.
This is why so many were wrong about the effects of the snow and driving conditions Sunday morning. People don't care about how many inches that definitely helps them decide what to do but they need to know how it will affect them.
not sure what to think of this storm anymoreinteresting developments. Also just saw a Tornado Warning near New Orleans. What a storm.wxnut wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:14 pm A really good update out of IND. Two highlights which may help us: p-type is snow/ice pellet in places expecting rain, changeover to snow quicker than expected in some places. Leads them to think may need to update totals in southern counties. However, cannot forget they are further west than us.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 250349
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1049 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023
.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1049 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023
The forecasted winter storm is on our doorstep as precipitation is
expected to begin from southwest to northeast within the next few
hours. This mesoscale update is going to focus on the
development/progression of the system currently in Arkansas,
Louisiana, and Tennessee and how models are handling the scenario
compared to observations.
As of 02z, the lowest pressure of 1004.3 mb was found in surface obs
was located just NE of Alexandria, LA. As of the writing of this
discussion, the surface low is still broad, but should tighten and
deepen over the next few hours. The broad surface low as of 10PM is
likely located in NE Louisiana near Winnsboro with a min pressure of
1004/1005mb. Comparing observations with 00z runs of short term hi-
res models shows that the low is right on track, possibly a county
or two further west. However, models struggle with developing lows
so this is not unexpected so early in the cyclogenesis stages. The
center of the low may also wobble around over the next few hours as
it gets more organized. Will have to watch the low later tonight as
it develops and follow its track as it compares to models. A storm
track deviation as small as 20 miles south or north could move the
axis of heavier snow in either direction resulting in significant
changes in the forecast for a few counties along the I-70 corridor
on the edge of the heaviest snowfall.
Looking at the radar, the dry slot associated with the expansive
precipitation shield northwest of the low has reached into northern
Arkansas. Both the NAM3K and the RAP have shown the dry slot getting
just up to Fort Smith, then the deformation band moves in and pivots
over that area. Radar observations show this happening very nicely,
increasing confidence that the models are initializing well and have
a good handle on precipitation. Further back towards Dallas, which
is getting the back edge of the deformation band, reports show
mostly snow with some pockets of rain mixed in. This matches well
with short term models, however looks like models may not be cold
enough on the backside of the low as observations show more snow in
areas where models suggest rain. Confidence is rising that P-type
tomorrow morning and early afternoon will be mainly snow on the
backside of the system, even for portions of Southern and South
Central Indiana. Strong forcing and high precipitation rates could
keep the column cooler resulting in mainly snow, rather than a mix.
However, still will have to watch surface temperatures as heavier
snow falling at 33-34 degrees will have to overcome melting
occurring in order to accumulate.
Ahead of the low in Tennessee this evening, ground observations show
surface temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40, but with mixed
precipitation falling. This area is associated with the first "wave"
of precipitation that will move northward into Indiana later
tonight. Short term models seem to be too warm ahead of the low as
they show mainly rain as a P-type while mixed rain and ice pellets
are reported throughout Western Tennessee and NE Arkansas. While we
fully expect precipitation to start as rain as it enters Indiana, we
do expect a transition within 1-2 hours of the onset of
precipitation. Paducah, KY transitioned to snow about an hour or two
ahead of what the RAP and NAM show, which is something to take into
account as that could potentially add another inch or two to final
snowfall totals.
ACARS soundings from across the south and Tennessee Valley line up
well with what short term models show, with a warm nose around 700mb
ahead of the system with a pronounced area of below freezing
temperatures below the warm nose supporting a brief period of sleet.
Due to heavier rates, think that evaporative cooling processes have
cooled down the column enough to support more wintry precip rather
than plain rain. Will have to watch P-type with the initial wave as
a brief period of sleet mixing in with rain and snow is possible
before a full transition to snow as observations show.
Overall, forecast is largely on track. Trending snowfall totals up
just slightly across Southern Indiana to account for more wintry
precipitation in downstream observations than what models depict.
Still a little early to determine if the low track will be a little
further north or south of what is currently forecasted. As the low
center becomes better defined, we may be able to tweak the forecast
a bit to account for where the deformation band will set up and
pivot. Confidence remains high for this winter storm event across
Indiana. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the night.
&&
2019 3 SSE SOUTH HOUSTON HARRIS TX 2962 9520 TORNADO MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY. RADAR CONFIRMED NEAR I-45 AND BELTWAY 8 (SOUTH). TORNADO CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH PASADENA ... DEER PARK AND THE HOU (HGX)tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:44 pm Les I just saw reports from a city named Pasadena,Tx which is 15 miles southeast of Houston. The local police chief mentioned it was the worse damage he had ever seen there and that is 25 years. He called the damage catastrophic with many folks stranded on the highways and several vehicles overturned.
