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Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:25 pm
by tron777
This is interesting..... actually seeing some weak SB CAPE folks over ILL and Western IN. Values of 100-250 J/kg shown. If this translates into our area, thunder and lighting would be supported with any heavier cells we see develop this afternoon. The more convective looking clouds per satellite is over ILL and Western IN so we have to wait another hour or two before things pop. Lapse Rates are extremely impressive! 8.5 C here to 9.5C over ILL! Should be interesting this afternoon should any bigger cell come over your location. 500 MB temps are like -26 to -30C across the region so graupel is going to be a player. Even some snow possible also with 700, 850, and 925 temps all remaining below zero at this time.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:31 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:25 pm
This is interesting..... actually seeing some weak SB CAPE folks over ILL and Western IN. Values of 100-250 J/kg shown. If this translates into our area, thunder and lighting would be supported with any heavier cells we see develop this afternoon. The more convective looking clouds per satellite is over ILL and Western IN so we have to wait another hour or two before things pop. Lapse Rates are extremely impressive! 8.5 C here to 9.5C over ILL! Should be interesting this afternoon should any bigger cell come over your location. 500 MB temps are like -26 to -30C across the region so graupel is going to be a player. Even some snow possible also with 700, 850, and 925 temps all remaining below zero at this time.
I was looking at that earlier Les and thunder is very possible and yes maybe snow hail or maybe snow as well. What a wild set up. Very windy down here with a red flag warning as it has dried out and though above normal in terms of rainfall it has been drier lately. After 2 very wet years down here maybe this will be more towards normal. Looks like at home near normal and hopefully the next 2 months we can get at least the normal amount of rain we usually get if not a tad over normal.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:03 pm
by tron777
CVG so far only 42 for the high. 37 from 1901 is the record cold high for today so it's safe. Record low for tonight is 30 from 1981. It'll be close!
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:28 pm
by tron777
Radar showing more rain and snow shower activity. Getting close to my hood now.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:40 pm
by tron777
We'll have to see how much we can clear out / winds die down for frost. Freeze warning in effect for tonight. For tomorrow night, I think we might avoid frost for the Western half of the area if the clouds can increase quick enough as we head into Friday. Eastern areas have the best chance to remain clearer longer. Models coming in with a good 1/2" of rain on Saturday.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:58 pm
by tron777
Latest measurable snowfalls from the boys as well as where today's snowfall ranks:
TheBoys.png
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:13 pm
by MVWxObserver
Some more flakes have been flying here in Greenville, too. Hard to believe this is April 21st lol.
Currently 34 here
A week from today progged for upper 70s!
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:38 pm
by tron777
Big flakes coming down here! Wow!
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:46 pm
by tron777
Temp went from 45 to 36 LOL Wow... pretty impressive for April 21st. Still snowing too btw.
EDIT: It's actually sticking to the car tops / grassy areas because it's coming down so hard.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:18 pm
by fyrfyter
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:46 pm
Temp went from 45 to 36 LOL Wow... pretty impressive for April 21st. Still snowing too btw.
EDIT: It's actually sticking to the car tops / grassy areas because it's coming down so hard.
47-35 was the drop I got here. Low visibilities and huge flakes during the height of it. Looks like more squalls are incoming from the NW.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:35 pm
by tron777
Sun came back out about 10-15 mins after posting... I am back up to 41 now., Probably about it since the sun will be setting in an hour and a half or so.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:40 pm
by tron777
Current weather hazards and quick info:
Frost threat tonight and Thurs night
Rain on Saturday
Wonderful weather Sunday - Wednesday!
60s to near 80 by Tuesday.
Storm chances now holding off until Thursday of next week
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:20 pm
by Bgoney
34 here currently
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:33 pm
by fyrfyter
This SPS is epic!!
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=iln
At 816 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm of snow over
Darrtown, moving southeast at 25 mph.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 35 mph...
Pea size hail...
Quickly changing visibility...
Up to three quarters of an inch of snow accumulation...
I can safely say, I don’t ever remember this happening before…
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:51 pm
by Drottlawn
Just came through Hamilton. That was impressive. It was more like graupel than snow though!
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:22 pm
by cloudy72
Mega snow band just blew through here about half hour ago - was driving home and it was difficult to see the road.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:52 am
by Bgoney
Wow, big fat flakes atm , just another day in global warming paradise. Back to back late April days of accumulating snows as I have another half inch from overnight and what is currently falling. Records continue to fall throughout the eastern half of US. We of course warm up next week but a new rou d of cold will be lurking in the first week of May . GFS with what would be an impressive snowfall forecast for the heart of winter, over the next 2 weeks
gfs_asnow_us_fh0-384-into-may.gif
First week in May cold front
gfs_T2ma_us_48.png
records.daily.usa.large.png
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:34 am
by tron777
May was very cold last year too...wonder if May this year will be a repeat or more normal? We shall see! For now... Cold this morning and tomorrow morning, wet on Saturday then we warm up.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:35 am
by cloudy72
Clouds kept temps up here - only dropped to 32.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:11 am
by tron777
Same at CVG… 32 as of 3am and that was it, thanks to clouds and flurries. No frost either as a result.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:17 am
by cloudy72
Also had another coating of snow last night lol
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:59 am
by cloudy72
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:52 am
We of course warm up next week but a new rou d of cold will be lurking in the first week of May . GFS with what would be an impressive snowfall forecast for the heart of winter, over the next 2 weeks
Yeah the tellies support this idea as well with the MJO drifting into Phase 1 in the first week of May and hints of the EPO turning negative again.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am
by tron777
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:59 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:52 am
We of course warm up next week but a new rou d of cold will be lurking in the first week of May . GFS with what would be an impressive snowfall forecast for the heart of winter, over the next 2 weeks
Yeah the tellies support this idea as well with the MJO drifting into Phase 1 in the first week of May and hints of the EPO turning negative again.
Why can't we see this Nov - Mar?
That would be perfect then let it do whatever the remaining months of the year.
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:11 am
by cloudy72
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:02 am
Why can't we see this Nov - Mar?
That would be perfect then let it do whatever the remaining months of the year.
I was about to say the same, Les!
Once we get to May, I am in severe storm and warm weather mode! Enough with this cold air!
Re: April 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:14 am
by cloudy72
Sometimes you just have to laugh.......has TWC ever had a monthly temp forecast of below normal for the country in the PC/climate alarmist era?
wsi_may_0410.jpg