Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:30 am CVG got down to 41 this morning. We may see a couple of nights in the 30s esp Mon and Tues mornings of next week. We could see a frost during that time period with a killing freeze gaining some steam the weekend right before Halloween as Tim mentioned earlier this morning.

I do see some blue in the sky but as usual here in the Ohio Valley always tough to get clouds to fade away. We will see this quite often with the models and even with more and more info put into those wonderful models they seldom understand the cloud cover is just tough to get rid of in the valleys. The only time in the late fall and winter that I go with less clouds is with a very strong cold front that has plenty of cold air. When we get the fronts that are not as strong or moving slowly you can expect clouds for at 1-3 days after the passage.

Les that weekend before Halloween does have a shot and one with a decent shot of cold air. Sure timing with clouds and light winds but at this point in time chances have increased for a freeze.

The system that hit Montana yesterday was already influenced by a recurving pac system. If you go back 10 days or so you can follow it getting absorbed into the jet stream

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:38 am The system that hit Montana yesterday was already influenced by a recurving pac system. If you go back 10 days or so you can follow it getting absorbed into the jet stream

Yeah and the bigger storm system due in around Halloween Weekend (give or take) , may also be the a result of the tropics. TS Norma in the East Pac, is forecast to merge with that developing storm system which if it happens, would give us a nice soaking of rain which we certainly need.

https://external.fosu2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/ ... sid=619d8b

The NC mountains have their 1st snow of the season.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:45 am https://external.fosu2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/ ... sid=619d8b

The NC mountains have their 1st snow of the season.

I saw that. They picked up 3" at an elevation of 6,593 feet at LeConte Lodge in the Smokies of TN around 24 hours ago.

Just saw the 12Z GFS and I like the idea of rain showers (light) tomorrow morning with the front then a renewed chance late Thurs night into the day on Fri with the wrap around moisture. The clipper is so far north now, that we could actually remain dry for the entire weekend for the Cincy area. Only the I-70 Crew would have a chance at a shower from this on Sat. Something to watch with regards to POPS esp on Sat. I am very close to going dry for Cincy and only leaving POPS in for the I-70 zone, minus Thurs and Fri of course.

Good Afternoon and mowed the lawn and it looks like mid-May. The cooler temps and some rain has did wonders. Has anything changed with my forecast and not really as we see another front come through on Thursday. I will take the 6 locations and average them out and my guess is somewhere between 0.25-0.50. Those will be CVG,INDY,DAY,COLUMBUS,LEXINGTON AND LOUISVILLE. I believe that is a fair way to get and average. This will be the period Thurs-Sun. Should have 2 bouts of rain on Thursday and one early in the day and another later in the afternoon and evening. Then I expect to see a couple of spokes of precip Friday-Sunday. Those will add little to the rainfall amounts but will keep it rather gloomy. My guess is by late on the day Sunday we start to see some clearing and Monday or Tuesday morning some frost may occur with western areas on Monday and the east on Tuesday.

Then we start to get busy and some bigger system look to be in the cards. Way to early to say heavy rains but I do expect some decent rains plus some really nice cold shots that models are finally showing more and more plus colder and colder. How cold is still up in the air but getting a freeze is more and more likely plus can we see a few flakes and you never know. I do expect another warm up after the cold shots and we need those so folks much further to the north start to get really cold. The good thing for late next week and the following week is some of the cold we should tap will be the arctic air building in Northern Canada and as I mentioned before -20 - -30 temps are more and more common. No we don't get that cold of course but if things time out I would not be surprised to see upper 20's for lows. Looks like my trip to Wisconsin will be wonderful and up there no doubt snow is more likely and I could see temps in the 30's and lows in the teens. I love that.

Wonderful post Tim! The only area where we differ is with the short term. I have POPS for Thurs and Fri then going dry for CVG Land. I will keep POPS in for Sat for the I-70 Crew for Sat then dry Sun. After this weekend, then our agreement on everything else returns.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:18 pm Wonderful post Tim! The only area where we differ is with the short term. I have POPS for Thurs and Fri then going dry for CVG Land. I will keep POPS in for Sat for the I-70 Crew for Sat then dry Sun. After this weekend, then our agreement on everything else returns.

You know Les when we disagree it usually ends up somewhere in the middle. I like it when we are on the same page especially in the winter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:18 pm Wonderful post Tim! The only area where we differ is with the short term. I have POPS for Thurs and Fri then going dry for CVG Land. I will keep POPS in for Sat for the I-70 Crew for Sat then dry Sun. After this weekend, then our agreement on everything else returns.

You know Les when we disagree it usually ends up somewhere in the middle. I like it when we are on the same page especially in the winter.

Same here Tim! Hopefully we will get our first wintry test next month.

We are in the 60s now this afternoon and a nice afternoon in progress! The sunlight looks really nice with a back drop of colorful leaves. I am thinking that we are still a week or two away from peak leaf color which I think will be right around Halloween this year. I am speaking specifically for Cincinnati. North of I-70 the peak should occur within the next 5-7 days.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 7:39 am
Agreed Tim! We should all get our first frost of the season soon and maybe some decent rains also if we can get a big enough storm system to form with some phasing. We haven't seen that yet so our amounts have been light. As we approach the end of the month, let's watch the guidance to see if that comes to fruition.

Actually had a touch of frost here this morning as it dipped to 35!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 7:39 am
Agreed Tim! We should all get our first frost of the season soon and maybe some decent rains also if we can get a big enough storm system to form with some phasing. We haven't seen that yet so our amounts have been light. As we approach the end of the month, let's watch the guidance to see if that comes to fruition.

Actually had a touch of frost here this morning as it dipped to 35!

Awesome Mike! Down here, the only frost I have seen so far is on roof tops. Nothing on the cars or ground yet. That may change by Mon morning of next week should we get the clear skies and light wind that is currently being advertised. Otherwise, we'll have to wait until we get towards the end of the month.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:42 pm We are in the 60s now this afternoon and a nice afternoon in progress! The sunlight looks really nice with a back drop of colorful leaves. I am thinking that we are still a week or two away from peak leaf color which I think will be right around Halloween this year. I am speaking specifically for Cincinnati. North of I-70 the peak should occur within the next 5-7 days.

Hey Les and peak is already here for me and I know driving out to independence peak was even a little earlier. Again overall in the local area I am sure peak is still a week or so away but localized areas like here in my yard peak is here and most of my trees in the back yard have lost or almost lost their leaves. Yes some because of the dryness but it turned out to be one of the most beautiful fall colors in years around my house.

12Z Euro is telling me to keep small POPS in there for Sat as it drags the cold front from the clipper thru here. The other models keep Cincy dry (minus I-70 Crew). We'll see what happens with the guidance tomorrow to see if I need to adjust Sat's POPS. My dry Sunday idea still looks good for everyone.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 3:26 pm 12Z Euro is telling me to keep small POPS in there for Sat as it drags the cold front from the clipper thru here. The other models keep Cincy dry (minus I-70 Crew). We'll see what happens with the guidance tomorrow to see if I need to adjust Sat's POPS. My dry Sunday idea still looks good for everyone.

Funny Les because on Tuesday it was the GFS that showed the clipper and today the Euro. Maybe the CMC will show showers with its Thursday output and the other two show nothing. That would give us the trifecta.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 3:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 3:26 pm 12Z Euro is telling me to keep small POPS in there for Sat as it drags the cold front from the clipper thru here. The other models keep Cincy dry (minus I-70 Crew). We'll see what happens with the guidance tomorrow to see if I need to adjust Sat's POPS. My dry Sunday idea still looks good for everyone.

Funny Les because on Tuesday it was the GFS that showed the clipper and today the Euro. Maybe the CMC will show showers with its Thursday output and the other two show nothing. That would give us the trifecta.

LOL! All models have shown the clipper with various tracks and intensities and that is still changing just a bit as we speak. One thing that I am certain of is a dry Sunday. I am also confident with rain chances tomorrow and Fri as we've discussed. I thought I was confident on Sat but we shall see. My forecast is in good shape if the northern track of the clipper holds and it misses us to the north (minus I-70 Crew of course). That is the only part of the forecast that I am a little bit uncertain about.

Les I can't take it out of the forecast. I have seen these lows just get stuck over southeast Canada and the northeast USA and many times they move slower than me. Sometimes they will just rotate in a certain area and we could be on the western edge of a few sprinkles. I believe Sunday will start out cloudy and yes some sprinkles before late in the day the sun comes out as some ridging works its way in. Depending on how fast the clearing is Sunday then some folks especially further south and west could see some frost and then Tuesday morning folks further east.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:39 pm Les I can't take it out of the forecast. I have seen these lows just get stuck over southeast Canada and the northeast USA and many times they move slower than me. Sometimes they will just rotate in a certain area and we could be on the western edge of a few sprinkles. I believe Sunday will start out cloudy and yes some sprinkles before late in the day the sun comes out as some ridging works its way in. Depending on how fast the clearing is Sunday then some folks especially further south and west could see some frost and then Tuesday morning folks further east.

It would not surprise me one bit if we started off Sunday cloudy and see clearing during the day which would set us up for frost come Monday morning of next week. This is how my current thinking is going. I agree with the slower exit, but not that slow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:45 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:39 pm Les I can't take it out of the forecast. I have seen these lows just get stuck over southeast Canada and the northeast USA and many times they move slower than me. Sometimes they will just rotate in a certain area and we could be on the western edge of a few sprinkles. I believe Sunday will start out cloudy and yes some sprinkles before late in the day the sun comes out as some ridging works its way in. Depending on how fast the clearing is Sunday then some folks especially further south and west could see some frost and then Tuesday morning folks further east.

It would not surprise me one bit if we started off Sunday cloudy and see clearing during the day which would set us up for frost come Monday morning of next week. This is how my current thinking is going. I agree with the slower exit, but not that slow.

Les always good for us to get those forecasting skills somewhat in order before winter lol. Again the forecast we show this weekend is minor in differences but always fun to have a little competition.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:45 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:39 pm Les I can't take it out of the forecast. I have seen these lows just get stuck over southeast Canada and the northeast USA and many times they move slower than me. Sometimes they will just rotate in a certain area and we could be on the western edge of a few sprinkles. I believe Sunday will start out cloudy and yes some sprinkles before late in the day the sun comes out as some ridging works its way in. Depending on how fast the clearing is Sunday then some folks especially further south and west could see some frost and then Tuesday morning folks further east.

It would not surprise me one bit if we started off Sunday cloudy and see clearing during the day which would set us up for frost come Monday morning of next week. This is how my current thinking is going. I agree with the slower exit, but not that slow.

Les always good for us to get those forecasting skills somewhat in order before winter lol. Again the forecast we show this weekend is minor in differences but always fun to have a little competition.

It is. We both have our strengths and weaknesses and we both win some and lose some. It's just the way it goes with the weather. I really like the line you always use in that "Mother Nature always has the final say" and that couldn't be more true.

64 at CVG today, I had the same.

First time in the 33 years I’ve lived on the East Fork creek behind me that the water has stopped flowing, actually for about a week now. Even last years fall drought kept a trickle going

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 7:09 pm First time in the 33 years I’ve lived on the East Fork creek behind me that the water has stopped flowing, actually for about a week now. Even last years fall drought kept a trickle going

That is wild and again you have had the worse concerning lack of rainfall. My lawn is healthy like its mid-May and the ground has mud and not dirt several inches down. I know last fall was really bad in my neck of the woods and lost quite a bit of new grass that I had started earlier in the year. I got unlucky because last August while most folks got some rain I ended up bone day and lasted much of the fall season. What a difference a year makes especially in localized areas.