Absolute Vorticity

21Z RAP and HRRR also track the low thru our SE IN counties.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:23 pm I don’t understand…. What is the NWS seeing!?!?

I posted their AFD earlier and it was a great read. Their forecast didn't change too much though. I'm perplexed as well.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:25 pm John Gumm

Gummers map is a good forecast. That is reasonable.

I think the concern is a quick hit of heavy snow before daybreak, even if it quickly changes over to rain, and a giant mess. Not too sure I blame anyone, this is a nail biter all the way.

Can't believe CPS is closed all ready

900s temps above freezing are what we need to keep at bay as long as possible overnight

Kevin Robinson

Basically the same. Said my hood would see ZIP lol

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:36 pm 900s temps above freezing are what we need to keep at bay as long as possible overnight



925mb.gif

Bingo. Good post.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:45 pm Kevin Robinson

Basically the same. Said my hood would see ZIP lol

That map looks familiar

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:45 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:36 pm 900s temps above freezing are what we need to keep at bay as long as possible overnight



925mb.gif

Bingo. Good post.

Agreed! I would like for the low to track near Cincy instead of West thru SE IN. But oh well. At least we can add a bit more to our seasonal total so I'm thankful for that.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:11 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:45 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:36 pm 900s temps above freezing are what we need to keep at bay as long as possible overnight



925mb.gif

Bingo. Good post.

Agreed! I would like for the low to track near Cincy instead of West thru SE IN. But oh well. At least we can add a bit more to our seasonal total so I'm thankful for that.

EU did another great job with the low track in general from at least 6 days ago and didn't waiver much at all

Here you go. Who will it be.

Make sure you guys are checking https://mping.ou.edu/display/ and https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

If the models show different conditions than what is on the ground, then they will probably be wrong about what will happen here. We need to check downstream to make a nowcast for us.

This is why so many were wrong about the effects of the snow and driving conditions Sunday morning. People don't care about how many inches that definitely helps them decide what to do but they need to know how it will affect them.

Annnnddd its gone!

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:23 pm Here you go. Who will it be.


always misses us.jpg

Accurate. Well I can say in Batavia, the snow DOES usually miss us.

This past Sunday was amazing.

C'mon wet "cement"!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:47 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:35 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:47 pm Quick question for the folks well above my pay level? When I saw the big pressure drop near Houston a thunderstorm with a possible tornado was nearby. Does this cause a bigger pressure change for a brief period and then it returns to what the output was showing before. I have no clue on this because the pressures are starting to go down further northeast but seem to be falling back into that 1000- 1004 area.

Interesting question! But that’s far too mesoscale to affect the modeling output. But I like your line of thinking there!

Or maybe it sounds like you weren’t referring to it affecting modeling. Apologies if I misread.

I'll chime in on this too... Tim, are you referring to the SPC Meso Page on this?

Thanks for the reply. I was just wondering if a big storm like that can affect the pressure for a period of time. This was around Houston and it drop very quickly for a couple of hours and once the storm was pass them it started to rise. During that same time though other areas nearby just had the normal slight rise or slight decrease in pressures.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:21 pm EU did another great job with the low track in general from at least 6 days ago and didn't waiver much at all

Most definitely! Once it saw that we would see a phase with the northern stream so the low would get cranked up earlier, that was all she wrote.

briceg09 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:32 pm Make sure you guys are checking https://mping.ou.edu/display/ and https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

If the models show different conditions than what is on the ground, then they will probably be wrong about what will happen here. We need to check downstream to make a nowcast for us.

This is why so many were wrong about the effects of the snow and driving conditions Sunday morning. People don't care about how many inches that definitely helps them decide what to do but they need to know how it will affect them.

Hey Brice! How's it going? Haven't seen you around in a long time. Hope all is well!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:47 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:35 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:47 pm Quick question for the folks well above my pay level? When I saw the big pressure drop near Houston a thunderstorm with a possible tornado was nearby. Does this cause a bigger pressure change for a brief period and then it returns to what the output was showing before. I have no clue on this because the pressures are starting to go down further northeast but seem to be falling back into that 1000- 1004 area.

Interesting question! But that’s far too mesoscale to affect the modeling output. But I like your line of thinking there!

Or maybe it sounds like you weren’t referring to it affecting modeling. Apologies if I misread.

I'll chime in on this too... Tim, are you referring to the SPC Meso Page on this?

Thanks for the reply. I was just wondering if a big storm like that can affect the pressure for a period of time. This was around Houston and it drop very quickly for a couple of hours and once the storm was pass them it started to rise. During that same time though other areas nearby just had the normal slight rise or slight decrease in pressures.

I get what you're saying now Tim. Thanks for clarifying! I believe so yes. I think the pressure can drop suddenly right before a tornado. People have sometimes reported that their ears pop. You've probably had that happen when driving thru the mountains. I think it's kind of the same concept here. The change in pressure impacts our inner ears.

MD came out a little while ago for heavy snow over S MO, AR and Eastern OK.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0098.html

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:47 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:35 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:47 pm Quick question for the folks well above my pay level? When I saw the big pressure drop near Houston a thunderstorm with a possible tornado was nearby. Does this cause a bigger pressure change for a brief period and then it returns to what the output was showing before. I have no clue on this because the pressures are starting to go down further northeast but seem to be falling back into that 1000- 1004 area.

Interesting question! But that’s far too mesoscale to affect the modeling output. But I like your line of thinking there!

Or maybe it sounds like you weren’t referring to it affecting modeling. Apologies if I misread.

I'll chime in on this too... Tim, are you referring to the SPC Meso Page on this?

Thanks for the reply. I was just wondering if a big storm like that can affect the pressure for a period of time. This was around Houston and it drop very quickly for a couple of hours and once the storm was pass them it started to rise. During that same time though other areas nearby just had the normal slight rise or slight decrease in pressures.

I get what you're saying now Tim. Thanks for clarifying! I believe so yes. I think the pressure can drop suddenly right before a tornado. People have sometimes reported that their ears pop. You've probably had that happen when driving thru the mountains. I think it's kind of the same concept here. The change in pressure impacts our inner ears.

Thanks Les and they did report a tornado at that time. So I am not going crazy after all

You've got a tornado watch in LA in the vicinity of the surface low. Per SPC meso page it is at 1004 MB over LA getting ready here soon to cross over into Western MS. So far not really seeing anything out of the ordinary. The dry slot is already well pronounced and you can clearly set it on radar over Eastern Texas, Western LA and starting to push into extreme SW AR as well. No doubt in my mind that the low is going to track a touch West of us in my honest opinion and that dry slot is going to be heading in our direction after the WAA precip is over with tomorrow morning. The precip shield is moving right along too with rain already into Paducah. It started raining there 20 mins ago.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:09 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:47 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:35 pm

Interesting question! But that’s far too mesoscale to affect the modeling output. But I like your line of thinking there!

Or maybe it sounds like you weren’t referring to it affecting modeling. Apologies if I misread.

I'll chime in on this too... Tim, are you referring to the SPC Meso Page on this?

Thanks for the reply. I was just wondering if a big storm like that can affect the pressure for a period of time. This was around Houston and it drop very quickly for a couple of hours and once the storm was pass them it started to rise. During that same time though other areas nearby just had the normal slight rise or slight decrease in pressures.

I get what you're saying now Tim. Thanks for clarifying! I believe so yes. I think the pressure can drop suddenly right before a tornado. People have sometimes reported that their ears pop. You've probably had that happen when driving thru the mountains. I think it's kind of the same concept here. The change in pressure impacts our inner ears.

Thanks Les and they did report a tornado at that time. So I am not going crazy after all

Not at all! At least not yet anyway. A few more of these nail biters and we may all go crazy!

Les I just saw reports from a city named Pasadena,Tx which is 15 miles southeast of Houston. The local police chief mentioned it was the worse damage he had ever seen there and that is 25 years. He called the damage catastrophic with many folks stranded on the highways and several vehicles overturned.