Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:24 am Great video by Brian. The main topic is concerning the possible tropical system later next week and I believe a key in getting this system onshore is where the high pressure sets up next week over the Atlantic. If it sets up over Bermuda then I can see this being pulled northward late next week but if that high is further west towards the coast of the USA then the system may end up heading towards southern Texas or northern Mexico. I have no ideal which if either is correct this far out but made a good point how the waters have not been disturbed to much this season and like we see with the current tropical system they can ramp up quite nicely

Depending on which wave gets named first (N ATL wave or the Southern one), next on the list are Gaston and Hermine.

Good morning and a nice heat surge between the hurricane and the nice cold front to the northwest. Paducah expecting 98 today and already 88 at this hour. I believe we hit 90 on Wednesday and today probably 88 is the best we do with a little slower start this morning with the fog. Late Wednesday night early Thursday the front comes through and again a quick bout of rainfall as the front is moving fast and some areas may not see anything at all. Trying to figure out the timing of the next front which should be late Sunday or Monday. Friday and Saturday look dry for the most part and could see a sprinkle on Saturday as winds switch quickly back to the SW but most should be dry but the clouds could keep the temp down a degree or two. Sunday and what time does the rain arrive. Not sure at the moment and this one may have a little more rain because it may move through here somewhat slower because a tropical system will try to ramp up south of here and sometimes we start to get a little road block going.

Most folks around here should be in that 78 to 81 degree range at noon so the mid and U80s I agree looks good for today. Thinking 90-92 for Wed at CVG.

I thought I remembered something about the number of foggy mornings in some month was to predict the number of times it snowed in the winter. It looks like the old wife's tale is for August, based on a quick internet search.

I miss the posts from the member who was a student of the myths and wives' tales.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:56 am I thought I remembered something about the number of foggy mornings in some month was to predict the number of times it snowed in the winter. It looks like the old wife's tale is for August, based on a quick internet search.

I miss the posts from the member who was a student of the myths and wives' tales.

It was the # of foggy mornings in Aug, that is correct. Waiting to see what the wooly bears look like this Fall also.

Good Afternoon and a rather hot day. 86 as of 3pm at CVG,91 in Louisville and 99 at Paducah. One thing I want to mentioned once in head into the fall season is there will be days when we get high clouds and models can miss this and temps can be held down a few degrees. Different season coming up and sometimes I need to remind myself of these minor changes especially since the lowering of the sun angle can make a difference. Can we make it to 89 or 90 this afternoon and very close with bright sunshine out my window. I thought 88 would be the highest but these heat surges and if you remain in all sunshine can outperform temp wise. Wednesday is sort of the opposite as clouds will be heading in from the northwest and will we hit 90 earlier in the day before clouds make it far enough south to stop the warming. Either way 2 last days of summer will no doubt be hot and hopefully that is it for the really hot days. The tropics and again way to early for the system late next week and exactly where it may end up going but many times when these get in the Gulf of Mexico this time of year when can get a little ridging north of the system and temps could see a little uptick for a day or two and would not be surprised if this system were to be in the GOM that a day or two of temps in the lower 80's. Again 10 days out and will worry about that later this week.

Cvg dropped to 84 at 4pm. Just enough clouds at the moment they took the temp. Still all sun here and at 89 degrees so have not hit 90 so far. Those clouds make a big difference this time of year. That is why Saturday may not be quite as warm as models show

Wonder how many times we've had a 90 degree day on the last day of summer. Grandpa Wooly is in a tiz as he has misplaced his records. The Woolys just got back from Key West, FL. Lordy is was hot and humid.

Onto winter, Grandma and Grandpa Wooly are in a conundrum. Being down south we shed our first growth of fuzziness and have to start back our winter predicting fuzziness. The bairns and the kin have a good fuzz going. Not all the way in yet, but it's looking good for snow lovers.

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:10 pm Wonder how many times we've had a 90 degree day on the last day of summer. Grandpa Wooly is in a tiz as he has misplaced his records. The Woolys just got back from Key West, FL. Lordy is was hot and humid.

Onto winter, Grandma and Grandpa Wooly are in a conundrum. Being down south we shed our first growth of fuzziness and have to start back our winter predicting fuzziness. The bairns and the kin have a good fuzz going. Not all the way in yet, but it's looking good for snow lovers.

This is really great news Grandpa Wooly!!!

Good evening all! We will cover the temp at CVG hour by hour tomorrow from around 7 or 8am thru about 5pm... we should crown a winner in that time. Stay tuned to the CVG 90 degree contest thread for LIVE coverage of this event!

Mike does NOT want a 90. Tim wins if we get a 90 at CVG.

Contest thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=139&start=75

Tim, so sorry to hear that you and your wife got bit by it. Prayers and thoughts for a speedy recovery bro.

A friend from my SS class a couple or so weeks ago came down with it and some signs of hers was also a sore throat but also swollen glands.

Both ILN and Dayton's WDTN has my area of Greenville at 92 for Wed.

Nothing matches the excitement of a down to the wire 90 degree day contest, good luck to all!

What in the world was that that moved through the C-bus area, some nice unexpected scattered bonus showers for sure. As a whole , the region is smack in the middle of if we get any widespread beneficial rains it would be from a tropical influence. Have to wait and see if that can unfold over the next few weeks.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:06 am Nothing matches the excitement of a down to the wire 90 degree day contest, good luck to all!

What in the world was that that moved through the C-bus area, some nice unexpected scattered bonus showers for sure. As a whole , the region is smack in the middle of if we get any widespread beneficial rains it would be from a tropical influence. Have to wait and see if that can unfold over the next few weeks.

Looks like that complex that went thru CMH was associated with the warm front.

So after the contest drama of today, we have a 50 / 50 shot this evening into tonight (timing for CVG) with the frontal system that ushers in Fall tomorrow. I-70 Crew, will be earlier this afternoon. A marginal risk is out for severe wx for most folks. Higher chances will be for the I-70 Crew as far as severe goes.

Front #2 comes in Sun afternoon and evening. Nice pattern we've got coming up for pleasant weather lovers!

Good Morning and going to be a nice hot day for the last full day of summer. Do we get any showers and thundershowers and possible but will not be widespread and most likely a very quick burst late tonight into early Thursday. Then fall arrives right on cue and I am so ready for the cooler temps. Another front in here late Sunday and Monday but the closer we get to the event the less in the way of rain and that happens quite often with early fall systems. Then we just wait for the tropical system that is trying to make it into the GOM and if so what direction will it take.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:10 am Good Morning and going to be a nice hot day for the last full day of summer. Do we get any showers and thundershowers and possible but will not be widespread and most likely a very quick burst late tonight into early Thursday. Then fall arrives right on cue and I am so ready for the cooler temps. Another front in here late Sunday and Monday but the closer we get to the event the less in the way of rain and that happens quite often with early fall systems. Then we just wait for the tropical system that is trying to make it into the GOM and if so what direction will it take.

As you have correctly stated in the past Tim, we need a tropical system typically this time of year for significant rainfall and we'll see if the "H" storm can deliver or not. I am confident in a US hit somewhere but to what degree and location too, are TBD. We maybe on the outside looking in or we may see some rain and wind out of it. We'll see over the next 7-10 days how that system pans out so we have lots to track around the globe even if our weather is pleasant.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:15 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:10 am Good Morning and going to be a nice hot day for the last full day of summer. Do we get any showers and thundershowers and possible but will not be widespread and most likely a very quick burst late tonight into early Thursday. Then fall arrives right on cue and I am so ready for the cooler temps. Another front in here late Sunday and Monday but the closer we get to the event the less in the way of rain and that happens quite often with early fall systems. Then we just wait for the tropical system that is trying to make it into the GOM and if so what direction will it take.

As you have correctly stated in the past Tim, we need a tropical system typically this time of year for significant rainfall and we'll see if the "H" storm can deliver or not. I am confident in a US hit somewhere but to what degree and location too, are TBD. We maybe on the outside looking in or we may see some rain and wind out of it. We'll see over the next 7-10 days how that system pans out so we have lots to track around the globe even if our weather is pleasant.

Les I can really use the rain in my backyard. Probably the driest I have seen in several years as I missed out so much in August. Overall the local area is doing well but those isolated spots like mine have been missed. I know the later we get into September and especially October it becomes harder for tropical systems to get their moisture in our area. Seems most of the time when we get one later in the season the mountains to our east or the east coast is where the moisture funnels that far north. Of course down in SC much better shot of getting some decent rains with tropical system this time of year

Here's what the boys have to say for today and tonight:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ongoing convection along and north of I-70 causing heavy
downpours, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts is not well
represented on models. This has necessitated numerous updates
based on radar trends. It appears this cluster of thunderstorms
will travel southeast and weaken by mid morning.

For this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
along a cold front approaching from the northwest. Organized by
potent winds aloft, some storms could produce damaging wind
gusts. It will be breezy outside of thunderstorms, with gusts to
25 mph.

Temperatures may rise to the low and mid 90s in warm advection
and compressional heating ahead of the front. There is greater
than average uncertainty regarding the high temperatures due to
potential cooling from clouds and precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Showers linger this evening into tonight as the cold front
departs southeast. High pressure advancing from the northwest
will provide dry weather late tonight through Thursday.

A sharp reduction in temperatures will be observed, with highs
reaching the mid 60s to low 70s.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:06 am Nothing matches the excitement of a down to the wire 90 degree day contest, good luck to all!

What in the world was that that moved through the C-bus area, some nice unexpected scattered bonus showers for sure. As a whole , the region is smack in the middle of if we get any widespread beneficial rains it would be from a tropical influence. Have to wait and see if that can unfold over the next few weeks.

Definitely going to be a nowcasting type day. Models have been horrible in placement (or lack thereof) so best bet is to expect scattered storms almost anywhere today into tonight. Some may get hit, others missed.

12Z NAM keeps CVG dry with the front coming in tonight. HRRR also does the same. It blows up a line for the I-70 Crew but weakens the line as it drops SE tonight. Cannot rule this out due to unfavorable timing of the cold front. At the same time, models might be weakening the rain too quickly since this is a pretty strong front. I like the 50 / 50 call for POPS as a result of the uncertainty.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:57 am 12Z NAM keeps CVG dry with the front coming in tonight. HRRR also does the same. It blows up a line for the I-70 Crew but weakens the line as it drops SE tonight. Cannot rule this out due to unfavorable timing of the cold front. At the same time, models might be weakening the rain too quickly since this is a pretty strong front. I like the 50 / 50 call for POPS as a result of the uncertainty.

I believe time it gets here probably more of a broken line which is very common.

----

Update from the boys...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Remaining convection over northern Indiana is likely to weaken
as it shifts southeast into relatively stable air over county
warning area during the midday hours. Have added chance PoPs to
account for residual shower active north of Interstate 70.

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected through mid-
afternoon as the main convective line develops and heads into
northwestern counties late this afternoon. Convective-allowing
models still do not agree on coverage of the storms... with the
12Z HRRR holding off on storm development until after 00Z along
the front itself.

If storms do develop late this afternoon into the early evening,
they will have access to 2000-2500J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPEs of near
1200J/kg. Therefore, damaging wind continues to be the primary
threat. LCLs are still a bit high... but with bulk shear around
25 knots and some curving hodographs, there is a non-zero
chance of a rotating storm or two, particularly over central
Ohio nearest the mid-level support.

For storms developing along the front around 00Z and after,
instability will be less, so severe risk will be lower.

88 as of 12pm at CVG. 90 IMBY!!! CVG should have no problem cracking 90 now. Convection to the north has weakened and little in the way of debris clouds are expected this far to the south. I can only see some high cirrus to my NE. Mostly sunny with a southerly breeze here. Dews around 70 so quite sticky today for the last day of summer.

12Z GFS is one step away from phasing the leftovers of Hermine with the next trough and hammering us with heavy rain and strong winds in early October! A low chance of verification this far out but not zero. Anyone from the OV to the East Coast is at risk in my opinion.