September 2022 WX discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Jonathan Winters' character name on "Mork and Mindy" should have been Merbok.

Currently 81 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

...SUMMARY...
A few intense supercells, capable of very large to giant hail, along
with tornadoes, one or two of which may be strong, may evolve into
an MCS producing scattered severe wind gusts. This appears most
likely across portions of south-central to southeast Iowa, northeast
Missouri, and west-central Illinois, beginning after 5 PM CDT and
continuing through tonight.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[cloudy72]

Looks like the good ole Dayton split strikes again!

[tron777]

I'm back!!!! Whose ready to talk weather?

Sam.gif

I picked up some light rain earlier this morning. Just a few hundredths.

[tron777]

So it looks like we'll see the mid 80s today, U80s Tues and near 90 on Wed. Chance of rain today but most of it is NE of us over in JP Land as well as S IN so not much going on for the rest of us attm. I cannot rule out a storm Wed with the cold front but otherwise, fall is coming! U60s thru the mid 70s looks good for a range around here with lows in the U40s thru the mid 50s. This airmass looks to stick around too with another trough coming in late in the weekend or next week.

Future rain chances, as I said, a small chance Wed with the front. Probably Wed night as far as the timing goes. Then Sunday into Monday of next week with the second trough I spoke of.

[MVWxObserver]

I don't know if any rain fell here at all in Greenville as I never heard any thunder i.e. or any steady shower.

Currently 70 here and progged to top at around 80.

[tron777]

A little sunshine breaking out now. Clouds are rapidly thinning here.

[tron777]

Clear skies here and loads up sunshine! A bit sticky out there but not awful. Temps rising quickly now thru the 70s on our way to the lower and middle 80s in spots this afternoon. Then we see if we get a contest day Tues or Wed?

[tron777]

Long term forecasting is going to be a headache. The tropics are not done yet., After Fiona, another wave may form into something in the Caribbean Sea then work into the Gulf and blow up into a major hurricane. Too early to talk what area of the CONUS would be at risk, if any. The time period is later Sept into early October, Troughs / cold fronts continue to dive into the NW. When does the trough interact with the hurricane? That in turns will tell us when it comes northward. A miss means the cane stalls or continues to move West into Texas or Mexico. Early odds point at FL and the East Coast as risk areas but all Gulf interests in the next 2 weeks should keep an eye open on that situation. We also do not know if the OV will be impacted with any significant weather or temps?

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and welcome back Les. Both my wife and I have covid and a different version from earlier this year as it feels like a bad head cold plus unable to sleep. Seems to last about 7-10 days so very similar to a normal common cold plus a sore throat on and off. Back to the weather and still not many changes for the upcoming forecast. Warm to hot the next two days and maybe we get 90 one of those days. A beautiful cold front here on Thursday which brings down the temps almost 20 degrees for highs and yes we will start to see some 40's for lows Friday and Saturday morning. I believe the weekend is dry for the most part but a system looks to get in here late Sunday and Monday and will need to watch the timing to see if the rain gets in a little earlier. Next week looks like a normal to slightly below normal with temps so I believe after Wednesday we can kiss the 90's good bye until next May or so. No changes on the tropics as the gfs has done well and though we still have until Nov 30th when the season ends we are going to fall well short of most predictions in terms of the number of storms. I watched Brian's video and the main item I got from the video is concerning the earlier change in leaf color. I agree and when I see an earlier change does this mean an earlier start to fall and winter. Mother Nature always gives us signs and maybe she is hinting at an earlier winter. We will see but seems to have a nice handle on the weather

[tron777]

OMG Tim... I sure hope you and your wife get better quickly!

[tpweather]

Thanks Les and the virus started with the kids in SC and work its way through the whole family. Just like any corona virus it has different versions and strengths. This one seems to be more with the nose and throat area and nothing with the lungs. Starts out with a sore throat and then the throat and nose area. Seems the kids are finished after a few days but with adults it seems so far a 7-10 day period. Just like the common cold every year and some versions are strong and some weak. The worse part is you don't sleep much at first but my wife is towards the end and she sleeping a lot more and I am on day 5 so I am getting close to the lovely sleep part.

[tron777]

I had 83 today. Can we get 89'ed tomorrow or fall short? Then can a 90 shake up the contest on Wed for potentially the last chance to make some heat miser noise of the season!

[tron777]

Good morning all! Dense fog advisory until 9am. Still pretty foggy imby with a temp of 60 degrees this morning. No major changes to the current calls. Warm today, hot tomorrow then Fall. Marginal risk for severe wx on Wed (Wed night IMO) with the front. Showers end early Thurs morning.

[tron777]

Looking ahead... we get another trough Sunday into Monday of next week with rain chances along with another shot of early Fall like temps. Right on cue since Fall begins this Thurs with trough #1. Anyway... Then a high sets up over the Lakes and NE with a Gulf hurricane to watch. A third trough drops in. Timing will say where it goes and who if anyone gets whacked with wind and rain (associated with the leftovers). Could be us? East Coast? So we are about to get more busy here on our forum as Fall arrives and summer ends this week.

[tpweather]

Looking ahead... we get another trough Sunday into Monday of next week with rain chances along with another shot of early Fall like temps. Right on cue since Fall begins this Thurs with trough #1. Anyway... Then a high sets up over the Lakes and NE with a Gulf hurricane to watch. A third trough drops in. Timing will say where it goes and who if anyone gets whacked with wind and rain (associated with the leftovers). Could be us? East Coast? So we are about to get more busy here on our forum as Fall arrives and summer ends this week.

Hey Les and not sure how busy we get. We get the first cold front in here late in the week and the brand of air is wonderful but once it gets near the GOM it of course stalls and models are probably seeing a chance for a tropical storm to enter that area. If one does head into the northern gom then yes we could see the storm attach to a cold front and like you mentioned bring some busy weather for the eastern 1/2 of the country. At this point I am not sold on the tropical system making it to the shores of the USA but not impossible by any means. What I believe is a bigger story is the monsoon rains that continue to fall in the four corners area of the southwest USA. This has been a rather rainy season for them and usually by this time of year the monsoon season is over and done. This is also directing some of the cold fronts working into the pacific northwest to be shoved further east and that is why we are seeing at least 2 cold fronts over the next week and there may be more behind that as well.

[tron777]

Looking ahead... we get another trough Sunday into Monday of next week with rain chances along with another shot of early Fall like temps. Right on cue since Fall begins this Thurs with trough #1. Anyway... Then a high sets up over the Lakes and NE with a Gulf hurricane to watch. A third trough drops in. Timing will say where it goes and who if anyone gets whacked with wind and rain (associated with the leftovers). Could be us? East Coast? So we are about to get more busy here on our forum as Fall arrives and summer ends this week.

Hey Les and not sure how busy we get. We get the first cold front in here late in the week and the brand of air is wonderful but once it gets near the GOM it of course stalls and models are probably seeing a chance for a tropical storm to enter that area. If one does head into the northern gom then yes we could see the storm attach to a cold front and like you mentioned bring some busy weather for the eastern 1/2 of the country. At this point I am not sold on the tropical system making it to the shores of the USA but not impossible by any means. What I believe is a bigger story is the monsoon rains that continue to fall in the four corners area of the southwest USA. This has been a rather rainy season for them and usually by this time of year the monsoon season is over and done. This is also directing some of the cold fronts working into the pacific northwest to be shoved further east and that is why we are seeing at least 2 cold fronts over the next week and there may be more behind that as well.

I think hints of La Nina are starting to show up. You usually get an active Pacific NW with mountain snows and valley rains then colder N. Tier and warmer S Tier. A nice temp gradient ensues. This gets you a lot of storminess. Now, we're not to that point yet. But the busy Pacific NW is the start of such a set up. The tropics have to calm down for fronts and bigger fall storms to impact us for sure. Our rain chances are lighter and more scattered until then. But the heat after Wed should be done for the season (I hope LOL) so we'll have pleasant early fall weather with some dampness from time to time. Love these foggy mornings and we've seen a lot of them. It always makes me think of a nice winter incoming...

Anyway, we do need to leave the door open for a US landfall in early October but a swing and a miss, say into Mexico is indeed an option. A fish storm, or recurve off the East Coast is much less likely with this one since it's further south in latitude to begin with. Polar Westerlies aren't going to draw it northward so early in it's journey across the Atlantic.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and I agree about the heat. Sure we can see a day or two in the low 80's especially ahead of a cold front but not seeing anything much higher and not any long term heat. We know getting into Oct tropical systems are further south for the most part and many will just be to far south to hit the mainland USA. I agree with you about the fog and I have no evidence that a foggier September means a colder winter but at least in my aging memory some of the better winters in terms of cold and snow was when we had a foggier August and September. I do expect a changeover in the trees a little earlier this season and of course last year the turnover was much later than normal.

[tron777]

Great Post Les and I agree about the heat. Sure we can see a day or two in the low 80's especially ahead of a cold front but not seeing anything much higher and not any long term heat. We know getting into Oct tropical systems are further south for the most part and many will just be to far south to hit the mainland USA. I agree with you about the fog and I have no evidence that a foggier September means a colder winter but at least in my aging memory some of the better winters in terms of cold and snow was when we had a foggier August and September. I do expect a changeover in the trees a little earlier this season and of course last year the turnover was much later than normal.

Thanks Tim! When I was up in MN this past week, the leaves were just starting to change and it's later then last year when we were there. Color was vibrant and about a week away from peaking when we left. This year, the show was just in its early stages. That doesn't mean anything for our area though. They have been drier and we've been much wetter this season. We need the weather pattern we have coming up. Lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s with clear skies and sunshine. That will help the process along.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Great video by Brian. The main topic is concerning the possible tropical system later next week and I believe a key in getting this system onshore is where the high pressure sets up next week over the Atlantic. If it sets up over Bermuda then I can see this being pulled northward late next week but if that high is further west towards the coast of the USA then the system may end up heading towards southern Texas or northern Mexico. I have no ideal which if either is correct this far out but made a good point how the waters have not been disturbed to much this season and like we see with the current tropical system they can ramp up quite nicely