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Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:48 am
by cloudy72
A lot warmer here this morning than previous ones. Dipped to 49 after midnight and has been steadily rising since....up to 54 now,
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:07 am
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:54 am
PV update
The strat. vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average
and is forecasted to remain stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean)
27 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the
last forecast step (2021-11-26 00:00:00)
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 33.5 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 10.9 m/s 2009
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 41.7 m/s 2019
u_65N_10hpa.png
This chart makes perfect sense. We talked about how it was not getting that cold in the northern regions of the NH and until we got the polar vortex stronger that was not going to happen. That is happening as we speak and the cold is building up there quickly. I am thrilled with this and my point has been it must get cold up there for us to have some decent cold outbreaks. The models were showing to much cold air to quick down here and yes we had some nice cold shots but short-lived which makes sense if you had way to connect to colder air.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:07 am
by tpweather
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:07 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:54 am
PV update
The strat. vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average
and is forecasted to remain stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean)
27 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the
last forecast step (2021-11-26 00:00:00)
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 33.5 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 10.9 m/s 2009
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 41.7 m/s 2019
u_65N_10hpa.png
This chart makes perfect sense. We talked about how it was not getting that cold in the northern regions of the NH and until we got the polar vortex stronger that was not going to happen. That is happening as we speak and the cold is building up there quickly. I am thrilled with this and my point has been it must get cold up there for us to have some decent cold outbreaks. The models were showing to much cold air to come down here and yes we had some nice cold shots but short-lived which makes sense if you had way to connect to colder air.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:31 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:07 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:07 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:54 am
PV update
The strat. vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average
and is forecasted to remain stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean)
27 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the
last forecast step (2021-11-26 00:00:00)
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 33.5 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 10.9 m/s 2009
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 41.7 m/s 2019
u_65N_10hpa.png
This chart makes perfect sense. We talked about how it was not getting that cold in the northern regions of the NH and until we got the polar vortex stronger that was not going to happen. That is happening as we speak and the cold is building up there quickly. I am thrilled with this and my point has been it must get cold up there for us to have some decent cold outbreaks. The models were showing to much cold air to come down here and yes we had some nice cold shots but short-lived which makes sense if you had way to connect to colder air.
Totally agree that the cold and snow will be building in Canada. Hopefully the look changes for December and we can get a better pattern to deliver it down here to the lower latitudes. I really hope that the Nina is weakening because I think that is going to really help us out. If it comes roaring back then all bets are off. Thank goodness it is only Nov 11th and not Jan 11th. We've got time still on our side.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:38 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:31 am
Well folks... This Week in Weather from DT and the cold that was shown by the extended models isn't going to come. Below normal at times but not full blown winter as was once expected. I expected it. A lot of Pro Mets did too. Here's what went wrong:
Okay I really enjoy DT's videos and believe is a great at long term forecasts but again he missed the most important part and that is the current conditions and how that can give you a much better ideal of future weather. We knew the cold fronts coming into the USA were not digging deep into the central part of the USA and this is a key factor to having long term cold. Sure you get a few days of cold locally but the milder air returns quickly form the central and southern plains. Again its November 11th and the models tend to throw these mets into a frenzy which I never understood. We talked about how the mjo could spend more time in the warmer phases but I am shocked they never saw that. I understand the importance of models but if we need to be able to forecast without them. Models are a tool and sometimes these tools are not the correct tools for the job.Last year we had the late heavy snow in Siberia so late in the fall and mets never paid attention which made no sense because it was so rare and it no doubt had an affect on the winter forecast. This season a late return to cold air in the arctic aka polar vortex getting strong. Way to many things pointing to a colder December folks and don't yet the pro mets change what you see. Again I always see better than I hear.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:50 am
by tron777
A lot of Nina's do favor a cold December. The strong Nina of 1989-1990 was the coldest on record for CVG. By Jan, the pattern collapsed and it was wet and mild after that with a raging SE ridge. That is typical for a Nina anyway. 2010-2011 was a mod Nina and Dec 2010 was the snowiest on record for CVG. Not all Nina's behave this way but there are plenty of cold and snowy December's with La Nina. If it is weakening, then it should bode well for Jan and Feb in my opinion.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:56 am
by tpweather
The uptick in colder waters in the pacific about a week ago made sense especially in Australia where they had heavy rainfall in the central and eastern part of the country. Again spring time so expected but was enhanced big time by the La Nina. The latest info showed those waters not as cold and does this mean the La Nina peaked and can't say for sure because we need a longer pattern to say that is true. Getting these upticks in colder water or vise versa usually promote stormier weather. I still believe weak La Nina is the way to go and you must wonder with the short period where waters cooled that the models freaked out like they do and thought moderate La Nina was a given. If we happen to get a moderate La Nina we know from the past that this usually brings milder weather to us and that is what the models seem to have locked in on their latest runs. Love to see the runs of the models this time next week and lets see if things change and I expect they will.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:03 am
by tron777
Great post Tim! Your insight is top notch and you see things that I sometimes miss so I'm always glad that you have time to post and provide your insights which I always pay attention too. Granted, we don't always agree but we usually are on the same page most if the time. We have been in recent weeks and still are.
Hopefully, we can get that EPO negative down the road. That is probably one of the most important teleconnectors out there for our area. The Pacific pattern is way more important then the Atlantic side.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:07 am
by tron777
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:04 am
by dce
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/nov_11_1911_cold_front
Quite an amazing day and weather event 110 years ago today. Climate change activists would have a field day with this if it happened today.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:55 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:03 am
Great post Tim! Your insight is top notch and you see things that I sometimes miss so I'm always glad that you have time to post and provide your insights which I always pay attention too. Granted, we don't always agree but we usually are on the same page most if the time. We have been in recent weeks and still are.
Hopefully, we can get that EPO negative down the road. That is probably one of the most important teleconnectors out there for our area. The Pacific pattern is way more important then the Atlantic side.
Les your knowledge of the models are perfect. I struggle with them and having your expertise helps me greatly. Yes we do disagree sometimes but that is fine because we go back and forth and try to figure out the best forecast between us. Great to have several sets of eyes and folks on here have different expertise which imo is what you want with a weather blog. I have learned so much on this forum and lucky to have such wonderful folks on here.
BTW it's raining down here again lol.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:05 am
by cloudy72
12z 3km NAM has some snow showers Friday night mainly in central Ohio. First snow of season for some?
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:09 am
by tpweather
Another great video by Brian. He never leans to hard one way no matter what the models show. He talks about the week of Thanksgiving and how it looks stormy across the central and eastern USA. This happens quite often and its such a big time of year for air travel and it seems sometime during the last 10 days of November their is a big storm somewhere in the USA. Concerning snow and no way this far out to see if we get any snow.
Concerning Sunday night will we have enough snow at CVG for the contest. Still possible because of the timing imo which means we could get the atmosphere cold enough to form snow flakes and can we get a heavier burst and I still believe this can happen though if it does accumulate it would be mainly on roofs and maybe grassy surfaces but it could look impressive for 15 minutes or so.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:37 am
by tron777
Wow! Now that's one hell of a cold front!
From 70s to teens... that is an awesome weather event right there.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:37 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:55 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:03 am
Great post Tim! Your insight is top notch and you see things that I sometimes miss so I'm always glad that you have time to post and provide your insights which I always pay attention too. Granted, we don't always agree but we usually are on the same page most if the time. We have been in recent weeks and still are.
Hopefully, we can get that EPO negative down the road. That is probably one of the most important teleconnectors out there for our area. The Pacific pattern is way more important then the Atlantic side.
Les your knowledge of the models are perfect. I struggle with them and having your expertise helps me greatly. Yes we do disagree sometimes but that is fine because we go back and forth and try to figure out the best forecast between us. Great to have several sets of eyes and folks on here have different expertise which imo is what you want with a weather blog. I have learned so much on this forum and lucky to have such wonderful folks on here.
BTW it's raining down here again lol.
Thanks Tim!
Rain is on the way for us locally here too. Winds already gusting 35 to 40 mph.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:38 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:09 am
Another great video by Brian. He never leans to hard one way no matter what the models show. He talks about the week of Thanksgiving and how it looks stormy across the central and eastern USA. This happens quite often and its such a big time of year for air travel and it seems sometime during the last 10 days of November their is a big storm somewhere in the USA. Concerning snow and no way this far out to see if we get any snow.
Concerning Sunday night will we have enough snow at CVG for the contest. Still possible because of the timing imo which means we could get the atmosphere cold enough to form snow flakes and can we get a heavier burst and I still believe this can happen though if it does accumulate it would be mainly on roofs and maybe grassy surfaces but it could look impressive for 15 minutes or so.
All that is needed at CVG is 0.10" of snowfall accumulation and it'll count for our contest. We'll see!
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:23 pm
by tron777
Rain is approaching the Metro now from the West. IN is already getting wet and the rest of us will be also before too long. Per radar, after that band moves thru, you get a short break then a line of showers and possible t-storms which is the actual cold front. A wet afternoon ahead and with the wind and falling leaves, watch the roads, esp in rural areas.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:37 pm
by cloudy72
Wind gust to 44 mph at Dayton Intl
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:00 pm
by cloudy72
Check out the waaaay below normal temps down in Aussie.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:11 pm
by tpweather
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:00 pm
Check out the waaaay below normal temps down in Aussie.
Yes tons of rainfall down there and something we have seen in recent years and that is wet and cool springs.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:13 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:11 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:00 pm
Check out the waaaay below normal temps down in Aussie.
Yes tons of rainfall down there and something we have seen in recent years and that is wet and cool springs.
Holy cow is that cold! And it's Spring approaching summer for them. I'd take that look in July and Aug personally. And in winter too of course.
For now... raining, windy, with falling leaves here. Looking more like November for a change anyway.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:15 pm
by tron777
Max gust so far at CVG has been 37 mph.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:26 pm
by Bgoney
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:11 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:00 pm
Check out the waaaay below normal temps down in Aussie.
Yes tons of rainfall down there and something we have seen in recent years and that is wet and cool springs.
Wonder if Greta knows what a LaNina base state is . These are perfect examples of the different patterns ENSO has on the climate
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:29 pm
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:26 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:11 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:00 pm
Check out the waaaay below normal temps down in Aussie.
Yes tons of rainfall down there and something we have seen in recent years and that is wet and cool springs.
Wonder if Greta knows what a LaNina base state is . These are perfect examples of the different patterns ENSO has on the climate
Greta needs to fine Hansel and get back to what they know best.
Re: November 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:34 pm
by Bgoney
Tim has been mentioning china's arctic blast , a bit of news on that::
Record snowstorms have affected 58 000 agricultural facilities in northeast China's Liaoning Province over the past few days. Local authorities said they are rushing to ensure power and food supply while repairing damages in a region heavily affected by rolling power outages in September 2021.
The province has witnessed extremely heavy snowstorms, rainfall, cold wave and strong winds from Sunday, November 7 to Tuesday, November 9, 2021.
The storms damaged more than 37 000 ha (91 500 acres) of cropland in 58 000 facilities and affected a total of 4 836 livestock farms.
Amid public concerns over power shortages posed by the blizzard, local governments in north China have made all-out efforts to keep homes warm, Xinhua reports.2
The average coal storage rate at Liaoning's heating enterprises is currently over 60%. The provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang are also working to increase their energy production capacities and increase coal imports.
To avoid vegetable price hikes influenced by the extreme weather, Shenyang has urged markets and grocery stores in the city to set the prices of several vegetables lower than the overall average and increase their supplies of vegetables.