Absolute Vorticity

Totals from this hood so far:

0.55" at CVG
Me - 0.47"
Boone Co Mesonet 0.36"

This exceeded my expectations!

1/2 inch here

57 here currently. It will be hard pressed to get above 60. We should be having CAA behind the front and NW flow so temps should actually remain steady if not fall this afternoon.

It will be a while until I have my gauge set up here at the new house as we're still in the transition.

Thankfully the 3rd and final phase of the move will be this Thurs 10/19.

Currently 52 here in G'ville with light rain.

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Looks like I picked up about 0.62 inches with almost all of that from overnight.

Had a few downpours yesterday here in Milford and a little drizzle last night.

Good afternoon and another November day lol. I really do enjoy this type of weather. Hope most folks got some rainfall and this time of year really helps the lawn to green up quickly. One thing this October has been lack of snowfall in the northern regions. Russia has some and somewhat below normal and parts of Alaska has some snow which is above normal for this time of year. Northern Canada though as been mild but starting to get cold but hardly any snow. I still don't believe the amount of snow in the northern regions in October is a good way to make a forecast. Some years yes and some no which really makes this mute imo. Will we get into the second rainy season and its getting to that time of year and hopefully that starts later this week. Looks like one more cooler spell later this week and weekend before we see a period of milder weather. Still way to early getting involved with a winter forecast and like usual conflicting information.

Good Evening and we have another spoke of energy coming off the lakes and headed south/southeast overnight. The rain will not be heavy and most likely rainfall amount will be .1-.2 inches however if you get in that 4a-9a many times a little extra is possible and that looks to be near us or slightly south and east so a few places may get near .3-.4. Monday will be cloudy and cool with rain moving away. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry and a slow rise in temps to the low-mid 60's. Thursday and Friday we have guess what another cold front with some northern energy more rain is likely. How much help from the GOM is still up in the air but its a nice cold front with some lift but again timing with the strongest lift will make a difference just like the last system. At this point another 0.25-.5 is probably the way to go but once we get closer can update the amounts.

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Glad the POPs on Thurs currently is only at 40% and hopefully doesn't get higher for that day as the week goes on since my folks and my 3rd and final phase of our move will be then.

Good Morning and yes most folks received some rainfall but the system dropped so fast to the south amounts were even less than I expected. I got 0.08 and never made it to the low end of my prediction. The heaviest still may be to the south/southeast but even folks in southern Kentucky are getting less because of the speed. Will call this prediction a fail and not because I busted on it raining but the amounts and timing were incorrect. Back later with more thoughts on the upcoming pattern and we are in the second half of October which usually means it becomes busier

Only 0.07" at CVG and about the same here. A couple more showers possible today and cool in the 50s. 60s and dry weather for tomorrow and Wed. Showers return late Thurs, lingering into Fri and perhaps even early Sat next weekend. Highs in the 60s will continue. Pretty avg for October.

Good Morning Les. I agree a rather normal looking mid-Oct forecast. Later this week into the weekend we repeat the current pattern with a chance of showers both Thursday and Friday and then over the weekend as we pinwheel these systems near the lakes. Still no true connection to the GOM so amounts once again should be on the light side. Starting to see changes in Canada and again another sign we are heading towards winter. Expecting northern and finally western Canada getting cold later this week and when this happens we usually get a milder period so next week I expect temps to run near to finally above normal. Usually that brings more chances of rain and we just need to wait and see if the pattern changes are enough to bring moisture up from the GOM. Looking towards November already and so far I see us near to slightly above normal in temps the first half of the month while cold builds to the north and west. Forgot but the period say October 29-Nov 2 we may see one last cold shot before the return of the milder weather.

I agree Tim. I think our current pattern persists for the rest of the month. We should see milder weather come November. Hoping the STJ starts ramping up by then as well. We shall see. What happens over the next month should tell us a lot about how this El Nino is going to behave or not behave.

Another great post by Brian. I love when he shows some of the models and how he believes the pattern will play out. I am not a model person so I rely more on patterns and also how the weather is developing to the north especially once we get into fall and winter. Nice to see the models and the pattern I see are matching up well. Many times the models and the pattern I see differ and that is when making a forecast you feel confident in is lower.

Only 51 at CVG right now with a mix of clouds and sun. Mid 50s maybe it for today. Not sure if wee can hit the 30s by morning due to clouds and wind coverage but low 40s should work as a result. More sunshine Tues and Wed before clouds increase again for Thurs along with rain showers late in the day continuing into Friday.

Good Afternoon and another great November day. Even though we have had several systems over the past couple of weeks really has not that busy locally. The northeast and parts of the upper mid-west have been busy. Looks like next week we starting seeing a shift in the pattern to let in milder and hopefully more precip. The trees look beautiful locally and though we have been dry and lost quite a few leaves early on the cooler nights in September and some recent rains have made it quite beautiful. Looks like I have two more pickup of leaves in the backyard and then wait for the pear trees up front which always are the last to change.

53 so far at CVG today. Maybe another degree or two but that ought to do it. 0.02" of new precip today with the drizzle and light rain that we saw earlier. Total precip for the event is now at 0.08" so more rain is absolutely needed. I still don't see a lot in our future with the STJ not phasing with the polar jet until storms are well east of here. That has been the pattern and will continue to be the pattern even with our next storm system later this week. We shall see if we can get a bigger storm system in here as we approach Halloween or if it comes in early November with a good shot of chilly air associated with it. But as far as seeing a widespread soaking rain, we will continue to be waiting.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 3:23 pm 53 so far at CVG today. Maybe another degree or two but that ought to do it. 0.02" of new precip today with the drizzle and light rain that we saw earlier. Total precip for the event is now at 0.08" so more rain is absolutely needed. I still don't see a lot in our future with the STJ not phasing with the polar jet until storms are well east of here. That has been the pattern and will continue to be the pattern even with our next storm system later this week. We shall see if we can get a bigger storm system in here as we approach Halloween or if it comes in early November with a good shot of chilly air associated with it. But as far as seeing a widespread soaking rain, we will continue to be waiting.

I agree Les but once we tap the GOM it is loaded and ready to unleash. Probably going from below normal rainfall to above normal in a short period of time. We know Mother Nature loves to balance things out but sometimes to quickly

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 3:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 3:23 pm 53 so far at CVG today. Maybe another degree or two but that ought to do it. 0.02" of new precip today with the drizzle and light rain that we saw earlier. Total precip for the event is now at 0.08" so more rain is absolutely needed. I still don't see a lot in our future with the STJ not phasing with the polar jet until storms are well east of here. That has been the pattern and will continue to be the pattern even with our next storm system later this week. We shall see if we can get a bigger storm system in here as we approach Halloween or if it comes in early November with a good shot of chilly air associated with it. But as far as seeing a widespread soaking rain, we will continue to be waiting.

I agree Les but once we tap the GOM it is loaded and ready to unleash. Probably going from below normal rainfall to above normal in a short period of time. We know Mother Nature loves to balance things out but sometimes to quickly

I agree Tim but I don't yet have any idea as to the when. That is what is making this El Nino very interesting and difficult to predict.

53 was it at CVG today. I managed to hit 54.

CVG reached 53, DAY 55 and CMH 57 today.

Good Morning and November continues. The system or systems from Thursday through Sunday looks very similar to the most recent event. My guess from Thursday-Sunday totals will once again be in the 0.25-.0.50. Then a cold shot before we start to warm up some and hopefully the pattern will increase rainfall with upcoming systems. Looks like a trough in the west and ridging in the east in the extended. Another weekend for leaf watching and really this has been one of the best years in sometime for color. The short term drought dried up some leaves early but the clear and cool nights of September and the recent rains have made this fall very colorful. Heading to Wisconsin on the 26th of Oct and maybe just maybe if timing is correct I will see the first snowflakes of the season.