Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Are you on Facebook? BG also posts the video on his Facebook page. I believe that you can watch them on YouTube as well. Yep, try the below video Joe. YouTube videos play on thru our forum.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:13 pmDoes anyone know how to open these videos up? It want me to open up/create an X account which I don't want to. Thanks Joe
Great Post Les and couple things I will bring up and a few of these Les has covered over the past few days. The upper system off the southeast coast is similar to me getting up and moving in the morning. Slow at best. Like Les has touted this is a slow mover but even slower than me. I thought this would be somewhat faster and this would open the western GOM and provided moisture to head this way. I also saw the gfs overnight almost kill the system for next week and don't believe that is the case and probably just a bad run. Still keeping the temps in the 80-82 range but if that system to the southeast just lumbers along then no doubt will need to keep an eye on the afternoon temps. Going to be big swings in temps over the next few days as we have plenty of dry air but how cool to we get at night can also keep from temps getting out of hand. The Thursday night period is when I need to see if temps level off some but that could also be dependent on the western GOM and how much moisture feed we have. Always a balancing act and again these are minor but also gives us a little brain work for the late fall and winter season.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 1:10 pm 12Z GFS is much slower now like the Euro and does not bring in rain chances until later on Monday into Tues of next week. If this is the case, I would need to raise temps this weekend. I will keep my existing forecast from this morning that I posted but look for potential changes as we get closer to this weekend.
I like your response here Tim! The interaction between the two systems are going to cause the models problems most definitely. I do think slower maybe the way to go which makes sense. The system off the Coast, depending on how strong it gets, will dictate how fast or slow it gets out of the way and then that will impact how long it takes our rain chances to arrive from the West. I will stay with my Sun night into Mon call but in a few more days, don't be surprised if it gets moved to Mon or Tues of next week. This will also impact sky cover and temps as well.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 1:48 pmGreat Post Les and couple things I will bring up and a few of these Les has covered over the past few days. The upper system off the southeast coast is similar to me getting up and moving in the morning. Slow at best. Like Les has touted this is a slow mover but even slower than me. I thought this would be somewhat faster and this would open the western GOM and provided moisture to head this way. I also saw the gfs overnight almost kill the system for next week and don't believe that is the case and probably just a bad run. Still keeping the temps in the 80-82 range but if that system to the southeast just lumbers along then no doubt will need to keep an eye on the afternoon temps. Going to be big swings in temps over the next few days as we have plenty of dry air but how cool to we get at night can also keep from temps getting out of hand. The Thursday night period is when I need to see if temps level off some but that could also be dependent on the western GOM and how much moisture feed we have. Always a balancing act and again these are minor but also gives us a little brain work for the late fall and winter season.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 1:10 pm 12Z GFS is much slower now like the Euro and does not bring in rain chances until later on Monday into Tues of next week. If this is the case, I would need to raise temps this weekend. I will keep my existing forecast from this morning that I posted but look for potential changes as we get closer to this weekend.
Les it is wonderful with no ac on in the house though the allergies can be sort of nasty especially when you wake up lol.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 2:16 pm I have only been mowing about once every 2 weeks ago for the last month and a half due to the dryness. Been saving money on gas this mowing season so that is a plus anyway. A gorgeous afternoon in progress though as Tim mentioned. 74 / 46 at CVG per the 2pm reading.
Thanks Les, I'll get on his FB page!tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:29 pmAre you on Facebook? BG also posts the video on his Facebook page. I believe that you can watch them on YouTube as well. Yep, try the below video Joe. YouTube videos play on thru our forum.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:13 pmDoes anyone know how to open these videos up? It want me to open up/create an X account which I don't want to. Thanks Joe
That would be good news and the gfs is also showing chances of rain next week. The gfs overnight had went goofy showing no rain but back on track and this makes more sense imo. I will say one thing I have noticed on the models and really started last winter that the nighttime run and afternoon run are quite often different and more noticeable in the winter and would stick to their guns for several days. Have no ideal why this is happening and usually they could be somewhat different but after a day or so come back to each other. This was not the case last year and hopefully those problems are put aside.
I know one thing... during transition seasons (spring and fall) you do tend to get some pretty wild swings on the modeling so I don't know if that is part of it or maybe some bad data got fed into the overnight GFS? I'm not an expert on this but I do agree with you're saying. It's been tough from a modeling standpoint. Models have done pretty poorly on temps this summer, the GFS probably being the worst. Precip wise, a lot of the time, when we were getting rain that is, models tended to overdo precip amounts. It is hard to say what biases we will see come winter but I am sure we will be noticing something. We usually do.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 4:01 pmThat would be good news and the gfs is also showing chances of rain next week. The gfs overnight had went goofy showing no rain but back on track and this makes more sense imo. I will say one thing I have noticed on the models and really started last winter that the nighttime run and afternoon run are quite often different and more noticeable in the winter and would stick to their guns for several days. Have no ideal why this is happening and usually they could be somewhat different but after a day or so come back to each other. This was not the case last year and hopefully those problems are put aside.
Either way, fall is still in the air so to speak and the signs are still there regardless of the temps. Leaves continue to drop IMBY thanks to the dryness and hopefully, we will see some rain soon to help with the fall colors. The dry airmasses we have been seeing with cool nights and warm afternoons are good for fall color promotion but the lack of rainfall isn't.Agreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:24 am Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland
As hard as it is to believe, we’re actually in a worse spot than what ended up as a moderate to severe fall drought than last year. We had decent rains regionally in August and beginning of September last year, it’s been much different regionally this year. Last fall’s drought was devastating to many evergreens in combination with lack of root zone moisture and the severe temperature drop in December, nearly wiped out or severely damaged many. Cherry laurel were goners, American boxwood species severely damaged or goners. Norway spruce suffered severe needle drop and will take years to recover if they do. I harped on this last year, so you no I wasn’t kidding , please start watering any valued evergreens so they have deep moisture going into wintertron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:30 amAgreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:24 am Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland
Great Post except last year I got missed with every rain event from mid-August on while the region had some decent rains my house got missed. I agree about the evergreens but the ones in my neighborhood are looking wonderful. This August and September I have done better with the rains so we know rainfall can be regional but also localized. One thing I have notice is the boxwood species have really had problems this year and that started in the spring. We have 2 that are completely gone to brown and this is very common in the neighborhood. My soil moisture is still in really good shape but getting some rain and then have low humidity and nice temps makes a big difference.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:06 amAs hard as it is to believe, we’re actually in a worse spot than what ended up as a moderate to severe fall drought than last year. We had decent rains regionally in August and beginning of September last year, it’s been much different regionally this year. Last fall’s drought was devastating to many evergreens in combination with lack of root zone moisture and the severe temperature drop in December, nearly wiped out or severely damaged many. Cherry laurel were goners, American boxwood species severely damaged or goners. Norway spruce suffered severe needle drop and will take years to recover if they do. I harped on this last year, so you no I wasn’t kidding , please start watering any valued evergreens so they have deep moisture going into wintertron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:30 amAgreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:24 am Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland
If you have moisture at depth , you’re one of the few lucky ones. Most evergreens looked “ good” at this time last year also, unfortunately most drought effects don’t show up until much later , after the damage has been done. . Moisture in the root zone ,down to 18” is crucial going into wintertpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:13 amGreat Post except last year I got missed with every rain event from mid-August on while the region had some decent rains my house got missed. I agree about the evergreens but the ones in my neighborhood are looking wonderful. This August and September I have done better with the rains so we know rainfall can be regional but also localized. One thing I have notice is the boxwood species have really had problems this year and that started in the spring. We have 2 that are completely gone to brown and this is very common in the neighborhood. My soil moisture is still in really good shape but getting some rain and then have low humidity and nice temps makes a big difference.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:06 amAs hard as it is to believe, we’re actually in a worse spot than what ended up as a moderate to severe fall drought than last year. We had decent rains regionally in August and beginning of September last year, it’s been much different regionally this year. Last fall’s drought was devastating to many evergreens in combination with lack of root zone moisture and the severe temperature drop in December, nearly wiped out or severely damaged many. Cherry laurel were goners, American boxwood species severely damaged or goners. Norway spruce suffered severe needle drop and will take years to recover if they do. I harped on this last year, so you no I wasn’t kidding , please start watering any valued evergreens so they have deep moisture going into wintertron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:30 amAgreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:24 am Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland
