Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:06 pm

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:02 pm I just pulled the white flag out of the drawer. Should I let it sail or not!?!?!

Not sure and all I have is a red flag when I want to challenge my wife on something. I usually lose those challenges and only get 2 a week

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:01 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:59 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:56 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:55 pm 43 beautiful degrees here

Ditto that for my hood.

42 here and the snow is melting on the south side of the house very quickly

Yes Sir! Hopefully we can whiten the ground up again on Thursday.

Les as we know from Saturday temperature before a storm makes a difference especially on the roads. We talked about this Saturday as temps drop quickly in the evening and then got a little milder overnight before the dynamic cooling. Today a different story with sun the temps are rising and will not drop much this evening. So even if we get the dynamic cooling the roads themselves may fare better this time around.

Thinking the same thing Tim. The rate that the snow falls can overcome warm ground / road temps 100%. We saw that on Sunday, but with this system, I just think it's getting cranked up too quickly so the low tracks a bit NW of Cincinnati and you know the rest of the story.

I agree Les and we talked about this over the weekend and when the system got stronger would make a big difference on what type of precip we would encounter. Like I mentioned this morning if we did not have the dynamic cooling going on this would be all rain with snow showers at the end.

Something else to consider too that we have not yet talked about... severe t-storms across the southern US may also rob some of the moisture transport from the Gulf. So some of these higher QPF runs maybe a bit suspect. You can kind of see this happening on the 18Z HRRR that is coming in. At CVG 2 maybe 3 hours of snow and that'll be it. I am probably being generous on the 3 hours. Low is already at 998 MB near Memphis. 996 MB as it crosses into Western KY. Esshh... even IND is going to have precip type problems at this rate.

18z HRRR Snow:
18z Forecast GIF Run 00-18hrs:

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:17 pm Something else to consider too that we have not yet talked about... severe t-storms across the southern US may also rob some of the moisture transport from the Gulf. So some of these higher QPF runs maybe a bit suspect. You can kind of see this happening on the 18Z HRRR that is coming in. At CVG 2 maybe 3 hours of snow and that'll be it. I am probably being generous on the 3 hours. Low is already at 998 MB near Memphis. 996 MB as it crosses into Western KY. Esshh... even IND is going to have precip type problems at this rate.

Great Post Les and no doubt that can rob the system of the moisture transport especially if you get a wall of thundestorms in the gulf states. This can sometimes block heavy moisture from getting into our area. Probably the speed of the system helps out some as moisture transport can make it here but if this was slow moving low pressure then my guess we would have problems.

No doubt the lower end for snow totals is looking more likely. I am staying with the 1-3 because I still believe and outside shot of the higher totals but as the day goes on leaning much more to 1 inch than 3 inches.

Forecast minimums for a good chunk of region are still in play . Almost always will be disappointed if the focus is on the best case scenario of the forecast range

When the low finally gets here, even the HRRR tracks it West of us! About Ripley County by this frame.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:26 pm Forecast minimums for a good chunk of region are still in play . Almost always will be disappointed if the focus is on the best case scenario of the forecast range

I agree and last night when they extended the winter storm watch to the northern ky counties I thought what are they seeing that I am missing. They did change overnight to a winter weather advisory which in this situation made more sense. Did they pull the plug too soon after the Sunday system.

Temp still at 42 and my guess maybe another degree but without snow cover we could have got in the upper 40's but no doubt the melting kept us in the lower 40's.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:29 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:26 pm Forecast minimums for a good chunk of region are still in play . Almost always will be disappointed if the focus is on the best case scenario of the forecast range

I agree and last night when they extended the winter storm watch to the northern ky counties I thought what are they seeing that I am missing. They did change overnight to a winter weather advisory which in this situation made more sense. Did they pull the plug too soon after the Sunday system.

This is exactly why I kept each zone with a lower minimum, even the northern zone closer to I70

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:34 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:29 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:26 pm Forecast minimums for a good chunk of region are still in play . Almost always will be disappointed if the focus is on the best case scenario of the forecast range

I agree and last night when they extended the winter storm watch to the northern ky counties I thought what are they seeing that I am missing. They did change overnight to a winter weather advisory which in this situation made more sense. Did they pull the plug too soon after the Sunday system.

This is exactly why I kept each zone with a lower minimum, even the northern zone closer to I70

Great call! I had to adjust down a tad for sure. Also, I was perplexed when they extended the watch to Boone Kenton, Campbell last night. To me that never made any sense. An advisory is going to be sufficient for many of us. It will be interesting to see how they handle this once they update their afternoon forecast package.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:28 pm When the low finally gets here, even the HRRR tracks it West of us! About Ripley County by this frame.

D4617BFB-E3CD-427F-BA6C-9B0BC7374D44.jpeg

992 MB!

Les the way this system exploded in southeast Texas it does not surprise me. Notice the SREF and the mean snow for CVG is down to 2.07 and Louisville is down to 0.44 though Indy is still at 6.52. Another problem is if we don't get those heavier rates I am not so sure how much sleet will occur. Not taking it off the board yet but will see this evening if that is taken out of my forecast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:34 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:29 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:26 pm Forecast minimums for a good chunk of region are still in play . Almost always will be disappointed if the focus is on the best case scenario of the forecast range

I agree and last night when they extended the winter storm watch to the northern ky counties I thought what are they seeing that I am missing. They did change overnight to a winter weather advisory which in this situation made more sense. Did they pull the plug too soon after the Sunday system.

This is exactly why I kept each zone with a lower minimum, even the northern zone closer to I70

Great call! I had to adjust down a tad for sure. Also, I was perplexed when they extended the watch to Boone Kenton, Campbell last night. To me that never made any sense. An advisory is going to be sufficient for many of us. It will be interesting to see how they handle this once they update their afternoon forecast package.

The bleeding needs to stop now , thankyou

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:42 pm Les the way this system exploded in southeast Texas it does not surprise me. Notice the SREF and the mean snow for CVG is down to 2.07 and Louisville is down to 0.44 though Indy is still at 6.52. Another problem is if we don't get those heavier rates I am not so sure how much sleet will occur. Not taking it off the board yet but will see this evening if that is taken out of my forecast.

Click the Precip Type POP button and that tells the sad story.

I'm wondering if some of us will see more snow on Thurs then with the main system itself. That is a distinct possibility.

Somewhat related thought: Anyone else ever wonder why NWS puts out a warning 24hrs in advance of something they forecast is going to happen? Maybe I'm just grumpy because my weather radio was my morning alarm today.

Seems like a warning would be something imminent with high confidence? A summer storm barreling down on you or a tornado on your doorstep has some immediate action required. But why the warning (and in an early morning package) raising alarms in advance, when there isn't 100% confidence?

I'm thinking there is some overcompensation happening after Sunday's surprise.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:34 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:29 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:26 pm Forecast minimums for a good chunk of region are still in play . Almost always will be disappointed if the focus is on the best case scenario of the forecast range

I agree and last night when they extended the winter storm watch to the northern ky counties I thought what are they seeing that I am missing. They did change overnight to a winter weather advisory which in this situation made more sense. Did they pull the plug too soon after the Sunday system.

This is exactly why I kept each zone with a lower minimum, even the northern zone closer to I70

Great call! I had to adjust down a tad for sure. Also, I was perplexed when they extended the watch to Boone Kenton, Campbell last night. To me that never made any sense. An advisory is going to be sufficient for many of us. It will be interesting to see how they handle this once they update their afternoon forecast package.

The bleeding needs to stop now , thankyou

That may help a little. Lol

NAM still wanting to give 4-6 at 10-1. You think this will be less?

Ryan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:53 pm Somewhat related thought: Anyone else ever wonder why NWS puts out a warning 24hrs in advance of something they forecast is going to happen? Maybe I'm just grumpy because my weather radio was my morning alarm today.

Seems like a warning would be something imminent with high confidence? A summer storm barreling down on you or a tornado on your doorstep has some immediate action required. But why the warning (and in an early morning package) raising alarms in advance, when there isn't 100% confidence?

I'm thinking there is some overcompensation happening after Sunday's surprise.

An interesting point Ryan. Wish I had a contact at NWS to know how their processes are. One thing I do know is that a lot of NWS offices issue these things on more of an impact basis nowadays versus criteria being met. Since this was supposed to impact Wed morning rush hour, maybe that factored into their decision? I'm not sure, like you, I can only speculate.

The HRRR isnt to shabby, Man this is going to be a tricky one.

Quick question for the folks well above my pay level? When I saw the big pressure drop near Houston a thunderstorm with a possible tornado was nearby. Does this cause a bigger pressure change for a brief period and then it returns to what the output was showing before. I have no clue on this because the pressures are starting to go down further northeast but seem to be falling back into that 1000- 1004 area.

I'm down here in Arkansas duck hunting on the SE side of the storm. Little bit of rain. Our wind right now E NE. it has not started to gust like they said it was. I'm in Cass County.