Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:25 am The weekend Pac west storm as expected really did a number on cooling of the Npac waters and now all along the west coast. More troughyness to come later next week and beyond for that area. Effectively pushing "the Blob" , or whats left of the Blob ,to a more west location in the pac, at least for the time being. Is it temporary? How will this effect our late fall pattern? Our winter pattern?
A pattern on the move!!

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Great Post and so much to unravel. This will be a key in the next few weeks to see how the pattern evolves.

Agreed fellas... It's going to take some time to figure out exactly what's going to happen. Originally I thought Wed would be our first chance for rain in Nov, but now (as Tim mentioned) that system has already sped up to Tuesday. So if models are having issues in the medium range, you know in the long range they will also. Not sold yet on any snow or mixed precip for later on next week but the possibility is at least there. Otherwise, you guys have the longer term already covered very well so not much for me to add at this point until we see how things look once we get closer.

On today's GFS run, the event for later next week is all rain since the cold and the moisture don't quite get together in time. It is close though. I could see some ice pellets or sleet mixing in with that particular system to be quite honest.

Euro mainly rain as well with mixed precip possible in higher elevations of Eastern KY. I'd like to see the upper low get more involved, then we'd have a better chance at seeing frozen precip ourselves.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:46 pm Euro mainly rain as well with mixed precip possible in higher elevations of Eastern KY. I'd like to see the upper low get more involved, then we'd have a better chance at seeing frozen precip ourselves.

Today's runs keep the low pressure further south and we don't see the merger of cold and storminess come together. Again this is today's run so something still to keep in the back of our mind. Again like Les mentioned need to get the upper low more involved as we still do not have the surge of true arctic air into this system. We are not expecting much from this system but early November always good to see how storms may play out later into the main winter season.

Exactly Tim... we should expect rain, but be pleasantly surprised should a little sleet or a few flakes mix in. That's it.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 6:45 am Big snowstorm anniversary coming up for much of the country including us. 1966, I remember seeing some old black and white photos that my mom and dad have , with me and siblings in the snow with the abbreviation NOV in one of the corners
What a track, FL panhandle, North along the western apps

November 2-3, 1966- This could be called the "Midwest/Ohio Valley Blizzard of 1966". 9.6" Toledo, 9.5" at Detroit Willow Run, 6 " at Detroit, 8.8 " at Findlay, 9 to 12" in western Ohio, 12.1" Alpena 11.3" Saginaw, 10.5" Ann Arbor, 10.1" Traverse City, 9.0" Lansing, 8.6" Flint, 7.7" Grand Rapids, 6.0" Detroit, 13.1" Louisville, 7.6" Lexington KY, 8.3" Indianapolis, 6.8" Fort Wayne, 5.8" South Bend, 2.4" Evansville, 14.0" Lima, 8.0" Cincinnati, 5.7" Columbus.

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Hi Bgoney,

How old were you during that blizzard, bro? I was 3 and my folks, sister, and I were living in North College Hill (Cincy) not far from Galbraith Rd.

****************

Never mind, bro, re childhood sentimentality.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 6:45 am Big snowstorm anniversary coming up for much of the country including us. 1966, I remember seeing some old black and white photos that my mom and dad have , with me and siblings in the snow with the abbreviation NOV in one of the corners
What a track, FL panhandle, North along the western apps

November 2-3, 1966- This could be called the "Midwest/Ohio Valley Blizzard of 1966". 9.6" Toledo, 9.5" at Detroit Willow Run, 6 " at Detroit, 8.8 " at Findlay, 9 to 12" in western Ohio, 12.1" Alpena 11.3" Saginaw, 10.5" Ann Arbor, 10.1" Traverse City, 9.0" Lansing, 8.6" Flint, 7.7" Grand Rapids, 6.0" Detroit, 13.1" Louisville, 7.6" Lexington KY, 8.3" Indianapolis, 6.8" Fort Wayne, 5.8" South Bend, 2.4" Evansville, 14.0" Lima, 8.0" Cincinnati, 5.7" Columbus.

1886021928_Nov1966Snowstormtotals.png.4b3be4ab99c31c1362934f159ed31c8f.png

Thanks for posting this. I had read about this before but had forgotten about it. Truly remarkable for November. Pretty remarkable for any month of the year.

So is everyone loving the transition to finally seasonal temps ? Fall colors are finally ramping up which is good, thst means winter is not far away !

theextremeone wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:50 pm So is everyone loving the transition to finally seasonal temps ? Fall colors are finally ramping up which is good, thst means winter is not far away !

Hey Jason... glad to see you posting. Hope you come around more often. You've missed out on a lot of great weather discussion and the prospects to an early start to our favorite season are looking decent. Stick around and join us!

theextremeone wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:50 pm So is everyone loving the transition to finally seasonal temps ? Fall colors are finally ramping up which is good, thst means winter is not far away !

Hey Bro!

So how much rain did your gauge pick up this past Sun / Mon?

I had a combo 2.90" for that period.

Euro weeklies are a little warmer than gefs extended 30 day average temps for November They both have the warm anomaly feature above northern Canada. There are major changes forecasted for the artic stratosphere in the next 10 days. Posted below are 0 hour and 240 hour 12z euro operational for today. Hour 0 shows 10hpa warm anomalies and a weaker polar vortex. Hour 240 shows a polar vortex that is home
But not warm anomalies (high latitude blocking) over northern Canada. If this were to happen and cvs2 seasonal and gfs extended are showing similar things. This would set up a very early cross polar flow. This if anything would rapidly develop Canadian snow cover. It’s going to be very interesting how this
Develops through November.

Good stuff Matt as always from you! That would really help out with getting our season going early esp in later Nov and for the month of Dec as well! Usually in Nina's we get early starts like this and good Decembers. It's been a while since it's actually worked out like that though. Would love to break that warm Dec streak we've been on.

Yes , always nice to hear from Matt.


For me, I'm just in awe of the current SSTs , both Pac/Atlantic, compared to last year. It's astounding.

Here's the new JMA run out to 4 weeks (thanks to CB's overnight blog post) and as you can see, this model is singing a similar tune as the Euro Weeklies, GEFS and CFS V2 models are. CB highlighted with an arrow the Eastern US on this hemispheric shot.

Well folks... we're looking at several days now next week with highs in the 40s and lows in the low 30s. (Could see U20s if we get clear skies and calm winds... TBD) So the set up right now looks to feature a front coming thru with some showers possible on Tues. Then a large Canadian high brings in the cold air. The front looks to stall south of us as another low moves up along it by Thurs / Fri time frame. The question is... does the high win out and we stay cold and dry? Does this low actually form and track correctly for us to bring rain, sleet, and maybe our first flakes of the season? From a global model standpoint, at this distance, you get the typical array of solutions ranging from cold and dry like the GFS, Light snow with a stronger southern wave like the CMC, or a swing and a miss barely to our south from the Euro? GEFS members are split 50/50 from being cold and dry to a stronger southern wave bringing mainly rain to the area. As we've said previously, something to watch for winter lovers in terms of first flakes and really no need to hype it up or blow anything out of proportion here.

If this cold spell works out. Then the gfs did a good job of recognizing the potential shift. Still lots of leaves on trees here. About to venture out for a drive. Hopefully some came down with the overnight rains.

On today's GFS run for next week, we get that cold shot of air but no moisture to go along with it. By the time we see any moisture, the cold is already gone. Plus, the low is too far south anyway and Cincy barely gets clipped by the rain shield as it is. It's so tough to get wintry precip early on in Nov. The timing has to be right and a little more luck then usual is needed.

The 12Z CMC is more gung ho then the GFS is (always has been) but even it is suppressed with this system. If its correct, you'd see some light elevation snows in East KY / TN / WVA area. A swing and a miss for us.

12Z GEFS Members... a few want to bring us some flakes on the N side of the precip shield. Def keeping this at a low chance of occurrence for sure.

12Z UKIE is going the swing and a miss, suppressed route.

12Z Euro's solution is more interesting today with better timing of the Canadian high and the energy ejecting out of the Rockies. We get a little more of a dig out of it, versus the 0Z run and we do get some light rain Wed evening and overnight. Since the timing is overnight Wed, you would stand a better shot to see sleet or snow flakes mixing in. It's a boarder line event to begin with and a lot has to go right as well. So again, not a huge deal at all, but it's a small shot at seeing first flakes, so it's going to get coverage by me posting anyway.

November will start off dry on Monday with highs in the 50s. Tues - Fri looks like mainly highs in the 40s! Lows will primarily be in the 30s. Low 30s and a light freeze also possible should we get clear skies at all at night. I don't see a ton of sunshine next week or precipitation. Best chance looks to be Wed night / Thurs morning as that southern low tries to clip the area. Best chance of precip S of the river attm. Mainly rain IMO but I'll throw in a small chance of seeing first flakes at this time. Again, this isn't going to be a big deal and the Apps Mts of Eastern KY and WVA in the higher elevations look to do the best as one would expect in the snow dept.

OP GFS is going dry and squashes everything. The Euro has some light rain, maybe a sleet pellet coming on Thursday then a small break followed by the upper low which brings in more rain / sleet chances for Friday and Sat next weekend. CMC is a little further SE with the Euro's solution so basically a swing and a miss. GEFS is siding with the OP GFS. Euro is pretty much on its own attm. Still a long way to go.

Good Afternoon and a wonderful day lol. Sticking to my November forecast where we get the 1st week of below normal temps but then a couple of weeks where its milder before we start to see some colder air work in here for late in the month and December. How cold do we get and that is still up in the air and will work on that part of the forecast once we get into mid-November because their are many items that will need to be looked at moving forward. I know LG in his winter forecast stated this Nov-Jan would be similar to last year and I disagree because remember last year we had the heavy snows in northern Siberia in later November and that seldom happens. This delayed winter for our area imo and not expecting the same outcome this year even though we are in a La Nina but I still expect that to remain weak.