Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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How's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:53 pmWelcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here
Glad to be back Les and hope your Christmas was good as well. We are ready for a good thumping up here….you know how Mother Nature is…she tends to get even and we’ve had quite the drought over the last several months….so expecting a rather snowy wintertron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:55 pmHow's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:53 pmWelcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here
The first half of January is looking very interesting so stay tuned! It's just a little too early to get much into detail on individual shortwaves. The upper levels at 500 MB are favorable as well as the Teleconnections. MJO is trying to turn more favorable also so maybe we'll see some longevity to this new pattern? We shall see!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 4:02 pmGlad to be back Les and hope your Christmas was good as well. We are ready for a good thumping up here….you know how Mother Nature is…she tends to get even and we’ve had quite the drought over the last several months….so expecting a rather snowy wintertron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:55 pmHow's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:53 pmWelcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here
Been following….weve already had 3 one inchers in December with some record cold….earlier than expected…. Im none the less ready for what’s to cometron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 4:04 pmThe first half of January is looking very interesting so stay tuned! It's just a little too early to get much into detail on individual shortwaves. The upper levels at 500 MB are favorable as well as the Teleconnections. MJO is trying to turn more favorable also so maybe we'll see some longevity to this new pattern? We shall see!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 4:02 pmGlad to be back Les and hope your Christmas was good as well. We are ready for a good thumping up here….you know how Mother Nature is…she tends to get even and we’ve had quite the drought over the last several months….so expecting a rather snowy wintertron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:55 pmHow's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:53 pmWelcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here
Yeah, we are off to a good start. Hopefully, we can keep it going!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 4:08 pmBeen following….weve already had 3 one inchers in December with some record cold….earlier than expected…. Im none the less ready for what’s to cometron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 4:04 pmThe first half of January is looking very interesting so stay tuned! It's just a little too early to get much into detail on individual shortwaves. The upper levels at 500 MB are favorable as well as the Teleconnections. MJO is trying to turn more favorable also so maybe we'll see some longevity to this new pattern? We shall see!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 4:02 pmGlad to be back Les and hope your Christmas was good as well. We are ready for a good thumping up here….you know how Mother Nature is…she tends to get even and we’ve had quite the drought over the last several months….so expecting a rather snowy wintertron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:55 pmHow's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:53 pm
Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here
Very cool. When in Minster, a stop at the Wooden Shoe Inn is a must. Do you have other recommendations?Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 3:53 pmWelcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here
Hi Bo, I have a family friend here in my 'hood in Greenville who has two sons and a daughter and one of the sons resides in Tipp City.
I agree and we have 2 cold fronts moving in before this system. Yes colder air and the system between the 5th-7th should no doubt bring in even colder air after the storm. Hopefully by Wednesday models are getting together on how the system may play out. I will have plenty of time to look at this since the Holiday's are coming to an end. Plenty of energy after that system and then will the PV move to far south and we get cold and dry or does it just get far enough south to keep us in business for more winter weather. No doubt the best set-up for January in many years and funny one of the analog years was 1977. Not sure that will work as it was a weak El Nino and that provided several storms that came through southern California and provided us with several storms and rather big ones as well. The 500mb pattern is similar though but with the warmer oceans overall how does this come into play. Analog years are nice but sometimes other items have changed.
My guess is that they put a solid line to separate the two time periods. When that graphic was released a few days ago, there was a risk issued for heavy snow for us (first section) for 1-4 thru 1/7. Second section is to our east with a different system due in 1-7 thru 1-10.partymarty wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2024 7:57 pmHaving trouble understanding the legend. What's the solid line? Thanks
Good morning fellas! It looks like the GFS and Euro are in better agreement for a snow to ice to rain type of system, maybe ending as some flurries if we don't get dry slotted. Our usual, the kitchen sink!tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 8:10 amI agree and we have 2 cold fronts moving in before this system. Yes colder air and the system between the 5th-7th should no doubt bring in even colder air after the storm. Hopefully by Wednesday models are getting together on how the system may play out. I will have plenty of time to look at this since the Holiday's are coming to an end. Plenty of energy after that system and then will the PV move to far south and we get cold and dry or does it just get far enough south to keep us in business for more winter weather. No doubt the best set-up for January in many years and funny one of the analog years was 1977. Not sure that will work as it was a weak El Nino and that provided several storms that came through southern California and provided us with several storms and rather big ones as well. The 500mb pattern is similar though but with the warmer oceans overall how does this come into play. Analog years are nice but sometimes other items have changed.
CMC has the more surprised look. GEFS is a cutter where the EPS is a bit south of the OP Euro. The AI Euro is a good blend between the OP Euro and EPS. Just a bit uncertain still with the track. Whatever happens, this might be our first thread starting type system. Along / N of I-70 has a chance to stay mostly frozen precip if this thing is done getting stronger that is. We need that nice banana high back over S Canada and the Great Lakes to keep more of us on the snowy side. I hope that comes back on the modeling,That's the thing, we don't have snow cover (yet) to our NW since what was there has melted. It'll come back obviously but in the meantime, to your point, how will that impact the depth of the trough and these systems coming in as well as the severity of the cold air attacks behind each system? We'll have to wait and see as usual. I do think we get a touch of light snow with the first weak system on Fri the 3rd. Then we await the Jan 5/6th system, which is still the first legit winter storm for the region this winter season.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 8:59 am Good Morning Les. The last system no doubt got much stronger and yes further west than models had shown 3 days before the event. For the upcoming pattern how does the trough build in and how much cold air gets involved after the system on Friday. Getting two fronts in here before hand no doubt helps our chances for snow and ice and yes I believe there will be snow and ice involved but is it one where we get a few inches of snow before we warm up and turn over to rain or an over the top type system where we are below frz at the surface but warm air over the top and you get the dreaded frz/rain issue. Sleet and usually a stronger system needed for this and we will wait and see how this plays out. That system is still way out in the pacific so plenty of time to watch and yes one run may show a big snowstorm just 6 hours later snow to rain. I wish there was more snow cover to the northwest to draw the cold further south and well to the northeast the snow cover has been really nice and if you can get the correct high pressure over southeast Canada this can send colder air this way. I do love storms that already have the cold air in place so that is a plus.
BTW all the snow melted in Wausau except for the big piles leftover. My son mentioned that they don't use a lot of salt or sand in that part of the world because when they get snow the temps during and after are so cold that it becomes useless. They do a lot of plowing and though my son is only 5-10 miles outside downtown Wausau he lives in a more rural area so roads become quite nasty.
We have a sustainable cold pattern coming in, that in my mind can last 2-3 weeks at this early look. The jet stream will remain active with northern branch systems and systems in the STJ too. You're right. It's almost like a weak Nino pattern instead of a Nina but that's ok! If we can see some snow out of it and get 6-10" for the month, I'd call it a win! If we happen to get a whopper then it's a bonus!tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 30, 2024 9:04 am Hey Les I do remember the January 1985 cold wave and it was nasty. The winter weather lovers we are can get overly excited and then disappointed sets in but the upcoming pattern has so many items in favor of cold and hopefully snow. The correct pattern in the heart of winter has been very low in the past few decades so yes I am excited. Getting record cold temps usually require a decent snow base and hopefully that happens as well. What can happen to bust this pattern and at this moment all the tellies are saying cold. I sent out early in December to the neighbors that I thought January would be cold and snowy followed by a mild February and if I miss they will not let me forget lol