January 2025 Wx Discussion

[Ddmeyer004]

I'm doing my part. Will be moving a few miles north to Tipp City, Ohio between January 7 and the 13. You can bank on some nasty Winter weather during that time!

Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here

[tron777]

I'm doing my part. Will be moving a few miles north to Tipp City, Ohio between January 7 and the 13. You can bank on some nasty Winter weather during that time!

Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here

How's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!

[Ddmeyer004]

I'm doing my part. Will be moving a few miles north to Tipp City, Ohio between January 7 and the 13. You can bank on some nasty Winter weather during that time!

Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here

How's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!

Glad to be back Les and hope your Christmas was good as well. We are ready for a good thumping up here….you know how Mother Nature is…she tends to get even and we’ve had quite the drought over the last several months….so expecting a rather snowy winter

[tron777]

I'm doing my part. Will be moving a few miles north to Tipp City, Ohio between January 7 and the 13. You can bank on some nasty Winter weather during that time!

Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here

How's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!

Glad to be back Les and hope your Christmas was good as well. We are ready for a good thumping up here….you know how Mother Nature is…she tends to get even and we’ve had quite the drought over the last several months….so expecting a rather snowy winter

The first half of January is looking very interesting so stay tuned! It's just a little too early to get much into detail on individual shortwaves. The upper levels at 500 MB are favorable as well as the Teleconnections. MJO is trying to turn more favorable also so maybe we'll see some longevity to this new pattern? We shall see!

[Ddmeyer004]

I'm doing my part. Will be moving a few miles north to Tipp City, Ohio between January 7 and the 13. You can bank on some nasty Winter weather during that time!

Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here

How's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!

Glad to be back Les and hope your Christmas was good as well. We are ready for a good thumping up here….you know how Mother Nature is…she tends to get even and we’ve had quite the drought over the last several months….so expecting a rather snowy winter

The first half of January is looking very interesting so stay tuned! It's just a little too early to get much into detail on individual shortwaves. The upper levels at 500 MB are favorable as well as the Teleconnections. MJO is trying to turn more favorable also so maybe we'll see some longevity to this new pattern? We shall see!

Been following….weve already had 3 one inchers in December with some record cold….earlier than expected…. Im none the less ready for what’s to come

[tron777]

Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here

How's it going, Dave? Glad to see you back! Hope you had a wonderful Christmas and get a good dumping in 2025!

Glad to be back Les and hope your Christmas was good as well. We are ready for a good thumping up here….you know how Mother Nature is…she tends to get even and we’ve had quite the drought over the last several months….so expecting a rather snowy winter

The first half of January is looking very interesting so stay tuned! It's just a little too early to get much into detail on individual shortwaves. The upper levels at 500 MB are favorable as well as the Teleconnections. MJO is trying to turn more favorable also so maybe we'll see some longevity to this new pattern? We shall see!

Been following….weve already had 3 one inchers in December with some record cold….earlier than expected…. Im none the less ready for what’s to come

Yeah, we are off to a good start. Hopefully, we can keep it going!

[tron777]

My thoughts... We start January on NYD with temps in the 30s and some flurries possible. Then late on the 3rd and into the overnight, a weak system moves thru with a shot of flurries and light snow. Then a question mark on the 5/6th on a storm (precip type) . Seasonal cold then turns into very cold conditions Week 2 then we moderate and should get another system after that in the 9-12th period.

[tron777]

18Z GFS next weekend looking interesting!

[tpweather]

Good Evening. Made it home from Wisconsin and had a wonderful time. Driving on the way back was not great but lucky traffic was not heavy. Looks like nothing really new and this has been true for at least a week or longer. Cold should arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday. This gets us back to normal and then another front later Thursday into Friday that could give us a touch of snow but the 4th-7th still looks promising. Still a little early and lets get the first front in here and then see if the models start honing in on the possible weekend to early next week system. More in the pipeline as well so chances for winter weather no doubt looking decent and we are still waiting for that January winter weather land to occur. PV and will it split is another question we need an answer for and the cold later this week and next week is really having the coldest weather on this side of the planet like we had back in the earlier part of December. If the PV does make it to say south central or south eastern Canada we could really have an extended period of winter weather. Getting a 10-14 day run is usually the best we can do but mid-January and if the PV plays ball we may have an extended period. Still too early but should keep us busy for the next several weeks at the least.

[Bgoney]

18Z GFS next weekend looking interesting!

That’s a great track for an OV freezing rain/sleetfest

[tron777]

18Z GFS next weekend looking interesting!

That’s a great track for an OV freezing rain/sleetfest

Snow for I-70 and slop for us. Sounds about right!

[tron777]

snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

[snowbo]

I'm doing my part. Will be moving a few miles north to Tipp City, Ohio between January 7 and the 13. You can bank on some nasty Winter weather during that time!

Welcome new neighbor. Glad someone else from the room is moving north near me….Minster here

Very cool. When in Minster, a stop at the Wooden Shoe Inn is a must. Do you have other recommendations?

[partymarty]

snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

Having trouble understanding the legend. What's the solid line? Thanks

[MVWxObserver]

I'm doing my part. Will be moving a few miles north to Tipp City, Ohio between January 7 and the 13. You can bank on some nasty Winter weather during that time!

Hi Bo, I have a family friend here in my 'hood in Greenville who has two sons and a daughter and one of the sons resides in Tipp City.

The very best to you and your wife on your transition!

[Bgoney]

Trends for the 5-7th period from the GFS have leaned to a more westward track with the low moving upriver, much like the EU has been except for one run . Lots of time for trends to change/shift in the days ahead

[tpweather]

Trends for the 5-7th period from the GFS have leaned to a more westward track with the low moving upriver, much like the EU has been except for one run . Lots of time for trends to change/shift in the days ahead

I agree and we have 2 cold fronts moving in before this system. Yes colder air and the system between the 5th-7th should no doubt bring in even colder air after the storm. Hopefully by Wednesday models are getting together on how the system may play out. I will have plenty of time to look at this since the Holiday's are coming to an end. Plenty of energy after that system and then will the PV move to far south and we get cold and dry or does it just get far enough south to keep us in business for more winter weather. No doubt the best set-up for January in many years and funny one of the analog years was 1977. Not sure that will work as it was a weak El Nino and that provided several storms that came through southern California and provided us with several storms and rather big ones as well. The 500mb pattern is similar though but with the warmer oceans overall how does this come into play. Analog years are nice but sometimes other items have changed.

[tron777]

snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

Having trouble understanding the legend. What's the solid line? Thanks

My guess is that they put a solid line to separate the two time periods. When that graphic was released a few days ago, there was a risk issued for heavy snow for us (first section) for 1-4 thru 1/7. Second section is to our east with a different system due in 1-7 thru 1-10.

[tron777]

Trends for the 5-7th period from the GFS have leaned to a more westward track with the low moving upriver, much like the EU has been except for one run . Lots of time for trends to change/shift in the days ahead

I agree and we have 2 cold fronts moving in before this system. Yes colder air and the system between the 5th-7th should no doubt bring in even colder air after the storm. Hopefully by Wednesday models are getting together on how the system may play out. I will have plenty of time to look at this since the Holiday's are coming to an end. Plenty of energy after that system and then will the PV move to far south and we get cold and dry or does it just get far enough south to keep us in business for more winter weather. No doubt the best set-up for January in many years and funny one of the analog years was 1977. Not sure that will work as it was a weak El Nino and that provided several storms that came through southern California and provided us with several storms and rather big ones as well. The 500mb pattern is similar though but with the warmer oceans overall how does this come into play. Analog years are nice but sometimes other items have changed.

Good morning fellas! It looks like the GFS and Euro are in better agreement for a snow to ice to rain type of system, maybe ending as some flurries if we don't get dry slotted. Our usual, the kitchen sink! CMC has the more surprised look. GEFS is a cutter where the EPS is a bit south of the OP Euro. The AI Euro is a good blend between the OP Euro and EPS. Just a bit uncertain still with the track. Whatever happens, this might be our first thread starting type system. Along / N of I-70 has a chance to stay mostly frozen precip if this thing is done getting stronger that is. We need that nice banana high back over S Canada and the Great Lakes to keep more of us on the snowy side. I hope that comes back on the modeling,

[tron777]

Hey Tim... speaking of analogs, 1985 was double weighted in the 6-10 day outlook from the CPC yesterday and then for the 8-14 day 1985 was weighted 4 times, wow! Recall the major January 1985 cold wave. -20 for the coldest low at CVG during that stretch along with quite a few light snow systems too.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. The last system no doubt got much stronger and yes further west than models had shown 3 days before the event. For the upcoming pattern how does the trough build in and how much cold air gets involved after the system on Friday. Getting two fronts in here before hand no doubt helps our chances for snow and ice and yes I believe there will be snow and ice involved but is it one where we get a few inches of snow before we warm up and turn over to rain or an over the top type system where we are below frz at the surface but warm air over the top and you get the dreaded frz/rain issue. Sleet and usually a stronger system needed for this and we will wait and see how this plays out. That system is still way out in the pacific so plenty of time to watch and yes one run may show a big snowstorm just 6 hours later snow to rain. I wish there was more snow cover to the northwest to draw the cold further south and well to the northeast the snow cover has been really nice and if you can get the correct high pressure over southeast Canada this can send colder air this way. I do love storms that already have the cold air in place so that is a plus.

BTW all the snow melted in Wausau except for the big piles leftover. My son mentioned that they don't use a lot of salt or sand in that part of the world because when they get snow the temps during and after are so cold that it becomes useless. They do a lot of plowing and though my son is only 5-10 miles outside downtown Wausau he lives in a more rural area so roads become quite nasty.

[tpweather]

Hey Les I do remember the January 1985 cold wave and it was nasty. The winter weather lovers we are can get overly excited and then disappointed sets in but the upcoming pattern has so many items in favor of cold and hopefully snow. The correct pattern in the heart of winter has been very low in the past few decades so yes I am excited. Getting record cold temps usually require a decent snow base and hopefully that happens as well. What can happen to bust this pattern and at this moment all the tellies are saying cold. I sent out early in December to the neighbors that I thought January would be cold and snowy followed by a mild February and if I miss they will not let me forget lol

[tron777]

Good Morning Les. The last system no doubt got much stronger and yes further west than models had shown 3 days before the event. For the upcoming pattern how does the trough build in and how much cold air gets involved after the system on Friday. Getting two fronts in here before hand no doubt helps our chances for snow and ice and yes I believe there will be snow and ice involved but is it one where we get a few inches of snow before we warm up and turn over to rain or an over the top type system where we are below frz at the surface but warm air over the top and you get the dreaded frz/rain issue. Sleet and usually a stronger system needed for this and we will wait and see how this plays out. That system is still way out in the pacific so plenty of time to watch and yes one run may show a big snowstorm just 6 hours later snow to rain. I wish there was more snow cover to the northwest to draw the cold further south and well to the northeast the snow cover has been really nice and if you can get the correct high pressure over southeast Canada this can send colder air this way. I do love storms that already have the cold air in place so that is a plus.

BTW all the snow melted in Wausau except for the big piles leftover. My son mentioned that they don't use a lot of salt or sand in that part of the world because when they get snow the temps during and after are so cold that it becomes useless. They do a lot of plowing and though my son is only 5-10 miles outside downtown Wausau he lives in a more rural area so roads become quite nasty.

That's the thing, we don't have snow cover (yet) to our NW since what was there has melted. It'll come back obviously but in the meantime, to your point, how will that impact the depth of the trough and these systems coming in as well as the severity of the cold air attacks behind each system? We'll have to wait and see as usual. I do think we get a touch of light snow with the first weak system on Fri the 3rd. Then we await the Jan 5/6th system, which is still the first legit winter storm for the region this winter season.

[tron777]

Hey Les I do remember the January 1985 cold wave and it was nasty. The winter weather lovers we are can get overly excited and then disappointed sets in but the upcoming pattern has so many items in favor of cold and hopefully snow. The correct pattern in the heart of winter has been very low in the past few decades so yes I am excited. Getting record cold temps usually require a decent snow base and hopefully that happens as well. What can happen to bust this pattern and at this moment all the tellies are saying cold. I sent out early in December to the neighbors that I thought January would be cold and snowy followed by a mild February and if I miss they will not let me forget lol

We have a sustainable cold pattern coming in, that in my mind can last 2-3 weeks at this early look. The jet stream will remain active with northern branch systems and systems in the STJ too. You're right. It's almost like a weak Nino pattern instead of a Nina but that's ok! If we can see some snow out of it and get 6-10" for the month, I'd call it a win! If we happen to get a whopper then it's a bonus!

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and I was going to post 12-18 inches for the month at CVG. As we know going to need one or two really big storms to get to that point but 6-10 inches is decent around here. I went that high because of my snowfall contest prediction lol