Absolute Vorticity

Glad that Sat 10/7 is currently looking dry for our 1st of 2 garage sales with upper 50s and a WNW wind of 10-20 mph.

We're "baking" so to speak right now thru at least Wednesday though. 82 currently at CVG as of the 3pm reading. Highs will avg 10-15 degrees above normal for early October until the front passes on Friday. Some locations will certainly struggle to get out of the 50s on Saturday esp. folks North of the River. Frost threat might be there *Paging Tim* for folks N of I-70 especially by next Sunday morning. I'm still keeping us in the Cincy area in the 40s at this time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 01, 2023 3:28 pm We're "baking" so to speak right now thru at least Wednesday though. 82 currently at CVG as of the 3pm reading. Highs will avg 10-15 degrees above normal for early October until the front passes on Friday. Some locations will certainly struggle to get out of the 50s on Saturday esp. folks North of the River. Frost threat might be there *Paging Tim* for folks N of I-70 especially by next Sunday morning. I'm still keeping us in the Cincy area in the 40s at this time.

Hey Les and usually watching the Bengals game at this time but what a mess. Back to the weather and Les I believe CVG will not get frost but that location is one of the last. I do expect some outlying areas though and comes down to light winds and a clear sky. That area could be near I-70 but also some locations in north and central Kentucky between Cincinnati and Lexington. Some of those outlying areas really get cold in some of those deeper valleys. Official frost locally most likely not but looks to be a nice cold shot though a rather quick one as another shot of milder air should follow in its steps which is very common for the first half of October. Leaves have changed much quicker at my house this season and those clear and cool nights along with dry conditions as led to this and with a shot of cold air next weekend getting to peak color may be a week earlier than normal

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 01, 2023 3:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 01, 2023 3:28 pm We're "baking" so to speak right now thru at least Wednesday though. 82 currently at CVG as of the 3pm reading. Highs will avg 10-15 degrees above normal for early October until the front passes on Friday. Some locations will certainly struggle to get out of the 50s on Saturday esp. folks North of the River. Frost threat might be there *Paging Tim* for folks N of I-70 especially by next Sunday morning. I'm still keeping us in the Cincy area in the 40s at this time.

Hey Les and usually watching the Bengals game at this time but what a mess. Back to the weather and Les I believe CVG will not get frost but that location is one of the last. I do expect some outlying areas though and comes down to light winds and a clear sky. That area could be near I-70 but also some locations in north and central Kentucky between Cincinnati and Lexington. Some of those outlying areas really get cold in some of those deeper valleys. Official frost locally most likely not but looks to be a nice cold shot though a rather quick one as another shot of milder air should follow in its steps which is very common for the first half of October. Leaves have changed much quicker at my house this season and those clear and cool nights along with dry conditions as led to this and with a shot of cold air next weekend getting to peak color may be a week earlier than normal

Hey Tim, somewhat hard to believe the Bengals were a powerhouse force over the past 2 seasons. Offense is MIA. **SMH**

Last night's Redlegs game we'd like to forget, too. Starter Connor Phillips never got a foothold and pulled either in the 1st or beginning of the 2nd inning. Quite an A-fib performance after Fri night's 19-2 drubbing on the last place Dirty Birds! Its like St Louis took a sick 'pleasure' in that 15-6 one knowing Cincy was hoping for a somehow miracle comeback in the Wild Card coattails chase. **SMH** Horse pills to swallow.

Anyway back to the wx ~ currently 82 here in G'ville.

For a national visual.

Got to 83 at CVG / CMH and 84 DAY today.

Good morning all! Mid 80s today thru Wed then we get some rain Thurs night / Friday then hello Fall! Struggling to get into the 60s at CVG Sat then the mid 60s Sun. Low 40s is my call for CVG Sun morning. Again I-70 folks may not get out of the 50s Sat and have a patchy frost threat Sun and Mon mornings of next week IMO.

Actually mowed yesterday and mulched the leaves that have fallen (it's a lot more than one would expect due to the dry weather).

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 8:39 am Actually mowed yesterday and mulched the leaves that have fallen (it's a lot more than one would expect due to the dry weather).

Hey Mike, what has helped in getting a decent start to the leaf color season is the amount clear and cool nights we had in September. Yes we had leaves that just died because of the dry weather but then we had so many cool nights without much in the way of moisture many trees were able to change earlier than we have seen in the past several years. Of course after this upcoming weekend expect and explosion of leafs changing colors . I have already 4 bags of leaves but expect more this weekend and plan on having a nice fire pit to burn all the tree branches I have collected this year.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:27 am Good morning all! Mid 80s today thru Wed then we get some rain Thurs night / Friday then hello Fall! Struggling to get into the 60s at CVG Sat then the mid 60s Sun. Low 40s is my call for CVG Sun morning. Again I-70 folks may not get out of the 50s Sat and have a patchy frost threat Sun and Mon mornings of next week IMO.

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks great and hopefully we can get some rainfall later Thursday and Friday. I am not sure locally if we get out of the 50's on Saturday and maybe Sunday. Frost as we know is not a uniformed event early in the fall season and no doubt some folks will see some light frost but this should not be widespread. Mainly the rural areas and lower Valleys tend to get going first concerning frosts. I have about one more bag of leaves I will rake up today and then wait until early next week as the weekend should provide another round of leaves to take over the lawn lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 8:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:27 am Good morning all! Mid 80s today thru Wed then we get some rain Thurs night / Friday then hello Fall! Struggling to get into the 60s at CVG Sat then the mid 60s Sun. Low 40s is my call for CVG Sun morning. Again I-70 folks may not get out of the 50s Sat and have a patchy frost threat Sun and Mon mornings of next week IMO.

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks great and hopefully we can get some rainfall later Thursday and Friday. I am not sure locally if we get out of the 50's on Saturday and maybe Sunday. Frost as we know is not a uniformed event early in the fall season and no doubt some folks will see some light frost but this should not be widespread. Mainly the rural areas and lower Valleys tend to get going first concerning frosts. I have about one more bag of leaves I will rake up today and then wait until early next week as the weekend should provide another round of leaves to take over the lawn lol.

Tim, I could be too warm for highs on Sat. Do we get a secondary low to spin up along the front and cut off? That is a possible solution. We'll know more as time goes on this week.

Hoping for a dry Sat for our 1st of 2 garage sales.

We got rid of our Sugar Maples, 1 in the front yard and 1 in the back, a while back but still get neighbor(s) leaves lol.

Currently 64 here in G'ville and looking to top out at around 84 today.

Another warm and sunny day. More leaves bagged up this morning. Will mow on Thursdays and hopefully some rain later that day. My guess rainfall for Thursday and Friday will be in the .10-.33 so not much but will help this time of year. As we know once we get into fall and winter around here clouds can have a hard time of leaving during the day because of where we live. I believe 56-59 for a high on Saturday and Sunday with maybe a little more sun 58-62. Best chance of frost will be Sunday night and also Monday night. Light frost looks like the most likely outcome and not everyone will not be lucky. I believe the 80's are done after Wednesday until next April or May. Starting to see cold fronts every 3-5 days and the GOM does not look like its ready to produce any big tropical system that could raise heights to raise the temps much in the next few weeks

Hey Tim... Agreed with regards to the tropics. I currently see nothing out there to change up the pattern over the next week. Philippe will be a fish storm and there is a wave in the East Pac that will become a TD shortly but it will move away from land. We have a system in the West Pac but it is going to move West and clip S Taiwan and them move into Mainland China so no recurving typhoons attm either.

I like your forecast temps as well should the clouds be a little more stubborn to leave esp on Saturday. Sunday should offer up more in the way of sunshine. Wind speeds should limit the frost threat Sat night into Sun morning and the best chance looks to be Mon morning as you mentioned. All in all, we agree on the majority of things as usual.

Regarding the longer term, Most Ensembles are showing an Aleutian Low, which pumps up the Ridge over Eastern AK / NW Canada and also in this case, the Western US. So there is your +PNA and -EPO combo at work for teleconnections. Then we've got a -AO and -NAO with ridging in the Arctic regions and over S Greenland. How long this blocking pattern lasts remains to be seen but by and large it starts this weekend and continues at least thru next week. We will moderate next week into the 60s and 70s but that is normal for October anyway. The 80s are well above normal and after Wednesday, I too, don't see them coming back thru mid month anyway. Whether we are done or not with them for the season remains to be seen. You can get a brief temp spike ahead of a strong cold front so I'm not quite ready yet to call the 80s done. The chance will be much much lower after this Wed though. No doubt about that.

I still don't see a ton of rainfall until the STJ can get going as we've discussed previously. The drought unfortunately will linger on for a while but the good news being that whatever moisture we do receive, temps will be cooler so the ground moisture can last a bit longer then you'd otherwise expect once we get rid of the 80s.

Les my lawn really looks good except on the hills that face southward. Of course this happens every summer even if its cool and rainy. My lawn will need cutting by Thursday and then I will starting playing it by ear. Of course after Thursday the growth will be slow and I will mainly be in the cleanup stage. Normally I would not say 80 degrees are done but the pattern really looks like that has a very low chance of happening. No doubt some 70's which you mentioned happens quite often in October.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 11:38 am Les my lawn really looks good except on the hills that face southward. Of course this happens every summer even if its cool and rainy. My lawn will need cutting by Thursday and then I will starting playing it by ear. Of course after Thursday the growth will be slow and I will mainly be in the cleanup stage. Normally I would not say 80 degrees are done but the pattern really looks like that has a very low chance of happening. No doubt some 70's which you mentioned happens quite often in October.

My Lawn is similar Tim. Mowed and mulched up some leaves over the weekend. It is pretty much leaf grinding season now and I'll only need to mow when the leaves are thick on the ground. With the strong cold front coming later this week, there will no doubt be a lot of leaves coming down with the windy conditions behind the front esp on Saturday. I will most likely need to mulch again sometime next week is my current thinking.

12Z GFS says we're done with the 80s after Wed out to Day 16. In the fantasy range it has a large storm system that becomes another big upper level cut off low. Tis the season for cut off's (Spring and Fall) so nothing out of the ordinary there. We pray Tim that these blocking episodes are here in the winter months. Oh do we pray!

Hey Les and was about to post on some of the things you mentioned. First the gfs showing a much wetter pattern by mid-month and the CMC also showing though goes out only 10 days and have not checked the Euro. Many times the further the model goes they head back to the mean and it makes sense because models can detect some pattern changes but not all. We do get into what I call the second rainy season starting mid-Oct through late Nov or early Dec. Like you mentioned if the El Nino starts acting like itself the STJ should begin to pick up and that is another reason I believe the second severe season could be wild. With the GOM and especially the western areas this could be quite the rainy period for the eastern say 1/3 of the country which could extend into winter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:38 pm Hey Les and was about to post on some of the things you mentioned. First the gfs showing a much wetter pattern by mid-month and the CMC also showing though goes out only 10 days and have not checked the Euro. Many times the further the model goes they head back to the mean and it makes sense because models can detect some pattern changes but not all. We do get into what I call the second rainy season starting mid-Oct through late Nov or early Dec. Like you mentioned if the El Nino starts acting like itself the STJ should begin to pick up and that is another reason I believe the second severe season could be wild. With the GOM and especially the western areas this could be quite the rainy period for the eastern say 1/3 of the country which could extend into winter.

I absolutely agree with that statement Tim! I am expecting the same especially in November and probably December too as I am expecting it to be mild. But who knows... so far things have not acted as they are supposed to with the El Nino and things can and do change. But if we go with what we do know about El Ninos than our thoughts here should work out. If they do not, then I'd gladly trade for more snow!

Hey Tim... speaking of the Canadian, it's wild towards the end of its run showing an East Pac tropical system crossing over Mexico and getting into the Gulf by Day 10. That is something we don't see too often. It has happened before but it is not common.

EDIT: The 12Z GFS has that tropical system too but it works into Mexico then recurves back to the West instead then dissipates.

12Z Euro has 0.15" at CVG for the front later this week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:57 pm Hey Tim... speaking of the Canadian, it's wild towards the end of its run showing an East Pac tropical system crossing over Mexico and getting into the Gulf by Day 10. That is something we don't see too often. It has happened before but it is not common.

EDIT: The 12Z GFS has that tropical system too but it works into Mexico then recurves back to the West instead then dissipates.

I saw that Les and that most likely will not happen. I do believe the system is there and could be rather strong but crossing over Mexico seems a bit strange.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 3:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:57 pm Hey Tim... speaking of the Canadian, it's wild towards the end of its run showing an East Pac tropical system crossing over Mexico and getting into the Gulf by Day 10. That is something we don't see too often. It has happened before but it is not common.

EDIT: The 12Z GFS has that tropical system too but it works into Mexico then recurves back to the West instead then dissipates.

I saw that Les and that most likely will not happen. I do believe the system is there and could be rather strong but crossing over Mexico seems a bit strange.

I had to look at that again. Euro is running at the moment. The western GOM is on fire and temps way above normal. Maybe the system is just heading towards the heat. Mountains in central Mexico and hard to get pass them without tearing apart a system. Many times you see systems on the Atlantic side come into Mexico and get torn apart by the mountains. Will be interesting to watch over the next several days

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 3:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 3:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:57 pm Hey Tim... speaking of the Canadian, it's wild towards the end of its run showing an East Pac tropical system crossing over Mexico and getting into the Gulf by Day 10. That is something we don't see too often. It has happened before but it is not common.

EDIT: The 12Z GFS has that tropical system too but it works into Mexico then recurves back to the West instead then dissipates.

I saw that Les and that most likely will not happen. I do believe the system is there and could be rather strong but crossing over Mexico seems a bit strange.

I had to look at that again. Euro is running at the moment. The western GOM is on fire and temps way above normal. Maybe the system is just heading towards the heat. Mountains in central Mexico and hard to get pass them without tearing apart a system. Many times you see systems on the Atlantic side come into Mexico and get torn apart by the mountains. Will be interesting to watch over the next several days

The tropical wave in the East Pac should become a TD at anytime then move slowly NW then eventually NNW as the week goes on. It will depend on how strong it gets, and when it begins to turn more to the N and NE if it all. I think the Euro Ensemble members are split on this one with some showing the recurve into Mexico and others keeping it more to the west over water and never hitting land. Just too early to know.

Closer to home and we have a toasty 84 at CVG as of 3:45pm. ILN has us in the upper 80s tomorrow. I could see 86 or 87 being possible to be honest. It should be the warmest day of the week tomorrow. We'll shave a degree or two off of tomorrow's high on Wed then of course Fall comes this weekend as we all know. ILN has us on 60 Sat and Upper 50s on Sun. It'll be quite the shock to the system since we are used to the 80s. I'm headed for S Michigan on Thurs coming home on Sun and it'll be a shock to my system as well with a morning or two in the 30s possible while I am there and only in the low 50s this weekend. Yikes!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 3:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 3:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:57 pm Hey Tim... speaking of the Canadian, it's wild towards the end of its run showing an East Pac tropical system crossing over Mexico and getting into the Gulf by Day 10. That is something we don't see too often. It has happened before but it is not common.

EDIT: The 12Z GFS has that tropical system too but it works into Mexico then recurves back to the West instead then dissipates.

I saw that Les and that most likely will not happen. I do believe the system is there and could be rather strong but crossing over Mexico seems a bit strange.

I had to look at that again. Euro is running at the moment. The western GOM is on fire and temps way above normal. Maybe the system is just heading towards the heat. Mountains in central Mexico and hard to get pass them without tearing apart a system. Many times you see systems on the Atlantic side come into Mexico and get torn apart by the mountains. Will be interesting to watch over the next several days

Third time may be a charm. Yes the gfs and cmc both have the system and the cmc does seem to have it come into the GOM. The gfs has the system as well but what happens is it sort of stalls and hangs around but the leftover moisture does form into some form of a storm but its several days later the cmc. The Euro does not seem to form the system though plenty of moisture around.