September 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

84 here today, 85 CVG. A couple degrees warmer then I thought it would get but overall a nice day!

I agree Les. That may help us get a 90 degree Sunday and maybe just maybe today since we still have lower dew points and temps can rise quickly. If that happens then I have missed my forecast this weekend. Good thing there is some cooler air heading this way later next week and especially the following week and that hopefully get us back to normal.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Not much change to report other then the temps which Tim has already mentioned. Still looking at spotty rain chances as we progress towards the end of next week.

[MVWxObserver]

Its reached 90 during the 2 PM hour at Lunken Field Airport where Mike Groenke, a former AV member, is a flight forecaster.

Currently 82 here in G'ville and progged for around 86 later this afternoon.

[tron777]

CVG topped out at 90 for the first one for Sept. How many do we continue to tack on?

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 90, DAY 89'ed and CMH 88 on Sat.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Going to get my ribs prepped this morning then it's time to start a fire! On the smoker that is. Another 90 degree day incoming with the low 90s Labor Day thru Tues then Wed will be close to an 89-90. Isolated storm on Wed possible a 50/50 chance on Thurs then low and mid 80s next Fri thru the weekend before the upper 80s return by the Monday after Labor Day.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and yes we hit 90 yesterday and most likely today as well. Hot but not scorching like we had a week or so ago. Chances of rain improve mid-week and then some nice normal brand of air heading this way. The coolest of air will be in the northeast and that will help us so temps do not rise much next weekend and the following week so temps should be very close to normal by then with temps a few degrees of 80 on the high side and either side of 60 on the low side. Funny the tropical season is not heating up in the Atlantic this time of year it really is one of the easiest times to make a forecast and feel rather confident many days away. Sure the models tend to be a tad warm but that is nothing new as the bias is still around and especially the Euro this go around.

[tron777]

The only real problem Tim is the lack of rain. I do not see that changing until the 3rd or 4th week of Sept is kind of what I am thinking. After this week, a rouge 90 is possible before mid month but hopefully, that nonsense will come to close!

[tpweather]

The only real problem Tim is the lack of rain. I do not see that changing until the 3rd or 4th week of Sept is kind of what I am thinking. After this week, a rouge 90 is possible before mid month but hopefully, that nonsense will come to close!

I agree Les but we have many Septembers with little amounts of rain and that is usually when the Atlantic Hurricane season is slower than normal. The good thing this September is temps besides early this week should be near normal and maybe slightly below as we go through the month. The pattern this summer with troughs digging more in the northeast looks to continue and then they retrograde and this keeps the heat to the west of us and should be a wonderful 3 weeks of September minus the rain.

[wxpatriot]

Let's all wish a Happy Birthday to wxpatriot! Hope you have a wonderful day!

Happy Birthday and hope you have the best one ever

Thank you! The big 60! Been busy last few days, but I lurk almost daily to get the best weather forecasts in town. Enjoy all your posts!

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and though we are near 90 today the dew points have come down. This makes a little easier to get a tad hotter temp wise but it should feel better than yesterday. Still best chance of rain is Wednesday and never easy getting rain this time of year. Late in the week cooler and drier air that will continue into the following week. Would not be surprised by the week of 9/11 that we see a few days in the mid 70's for highs and of course should have no problem getting into the 50's at night. That is even possible next weekend as dew points will continue to come down.

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY BELATED BIG 60TH RON!!

I hope that you enjoyed your special day, Wxbuddy!

I turned 60 in Jan!

You, myself, Tim, Bgoney, WxMom Gina e.g. etc. are all in that Baby Boomers boat!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 90 and both DAY / CMH 89'ed today.

Currently 86 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and not sure if made it 90 but will check later. Up in Wausau they hit at least 98 which just shatters the record high. This heat spell not doubt was sent further north than you would expect this time of year and again this has let us stay at 90 or below so the Euro which had highs in the mid 90's never going to happen. The heat spell for many will be short and even for us clouds and possible rain Wednesday before cooler and drier air settles in for an extended period.

[tron777]

90 per the 5pm climate report at 3:49 pm at CVG. I hit 91 today.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Happy Labor Day. Two more days of the temps near 90 and then hopefully some clouds and rain on Wednesday into early Thursday. Not expecting much rain and most totals will probably be in the 0.10-0.25 unless you get under a thundershower for an extended period. So bad news not much rain which is usually the case this time of year without a tropical system throwing moisture this way. The good news is cooler and less humid air later in the week and over the weekend. Temps will be near normal by the weekend with highs near 80 and lows most likely in the upper 50's. Next week and yes there is a tropical system that could form into a tropical system and head toward the USA. At the same time models are starting to show a trough over the eastern USA. Could be similar to last week where we are on the cooler side of things with temps in the 70's for highs and lows in the 50's with some 40's possible as well. Does the tropical system miss the trough and if that happens probably another brief warm up or does it get caught in with the trough and head out to sea. I believe its the latter and we should be okay. Losing daylight by a few minutes each day. This week the Euro was bad with temps locally but not everywhere and that is why its not easy to judge a model because it can be both correct and wrong with the same run. 99 at Wausau,Wi and shattered the old record. Of course this time of year not going to keep that heat that far north for an extended period and my guess by next weekend they will be in the 60's and lows in the 40's.

[tron777]

Good morning all! The Canadian of all models Tim, has probably done the best with temps. GFS we know has been bad all summer with the Euro not doing so great either as you mentioned. Also agree with the rain chances looking to be on the scattered side. Some of you will get some rain but many won't. Like the amounts you mentioned also Tim. The trough coming by next weekend looks deeper at this time so we may get some highs in the 70s lows in the 50s kind of weather here pretty soon. Definitely have two more 90 degree days in the bag. Wed may end up short in the upper 80s due to the cloud and rainfall chance.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! The Canadian of all models Tim, has probably done the best with temps. GFS we know has been bad all summer with the Euro not doing so great either as you mentioned. Also agree with the rain chances looking to be on the scattered side. Some of you will get some rain but many won't. Like the amounts you mentioned also Tim. The trough coming by next weekend looks deeper at this time so we may get some highs in the 70s lows in the 50s kind of weather here pretty soon. Definitely have two more 90 degree days in the bag. Wed may end up short in the upper 80s due to the cloud and rainfall chance.

Good Morning Les and yes the models last week was still showing hot weather for next weekend and the following but I believe we did well once again of this forum and falling for bad model output. Never easy forecasting down the road but this time of year with very little tropical activity unless you name every thunderstorm that pops up makes it somewhat easier to forecast. Looking forward to the 70's/50's and especially next week as I will be on a golf outing in Nashville aka Brown Country,In.

[tron777]

Good morning all! The Canadian of all models Tim, has probably done the best with temps. GFS we know has been bad all summer with the Euro not doing so great either as you mentioned. Also agree with the rain chances looking to be on the scattered side. Some of you will get some rain but many won't. Like the amounts you mentioned also Tim. The trough coming by next weekend looks deeper at this time so we may get some highs in the 70s lows in the 50s kind of weather here pretty soon. Definitely have two more 90 degree days in the bag. Wed may end up short in the upper 80s due to the cloud and rainfall chance.

Good Morning Les and yes the models last week was still showing hot weather for next weekend and the following but I believe we did well once again of this forum and falling for bad model output. Never easy forecasting down the road but this time of year with very little tropical activity unless you name every thunderstorm that pops up makes it somewhat easier to forecast. Looking forward to the 70's/50's and especially next week as I will be on a golf outing in Nashville aka Brown Country,In.

Awesome Tim! Have a great time and enjoy that golf outing! Should be wonderful weather for all outdoor activities both work and pleasure related. Once the heat is over with it'll be time to do a little late season fishing before the nasty weather starts to really kick in.

[tron777]

It's still hot out there today but the dews are a little lower then yesterday and it makes a difference. 90 as of 1pm IMBY, CVG sitting at 88 the ole double nickel!

[tpweather]

Some clouds to the west should keep temps down towards Indy today but I believe we will get enough sun to hit 90. Tuesday will be close and really the pattern sped up by a little so that is why Wednesday looks like we will not reach 90. Will end up with 3 or 4 90 degree days but needed all to be 89 to have a shot at Les though that may not be good enough either Les lol

[tron777]

89'ed Tim so far at CVG today but you know it won't last. 92 my official high today.

[tron777]

Best rain chances look to be tomorrow afternoon thru about Wed evening. Then we're done for a while again, but at least the temps are going to be more tolerable. Today's 12Z GFS digs a big trough into the West around 9/20 with the warmth returning. Hope that is nonsense but it is fantasy at this range anyway and the OP GFS so you know. MJO comes out into the Maritime Continent briefly but dives back into the neutral circle again. PNA spikes briefly but drops late in the period so it fits the GFS's run actually today. We'll see. OP GFS brings the 90s back in the fantasy range where the GEFS says low to mid 80s.

[tron777]

For all of my die hard snow weenies out there!

[tpweather]

Best rain chances look to be tomorrow afternoon thru about Wed evening. Then we're done for a while again, but at least the temps are going to be more tolerable. Today's 12Z GFS digs a big trough into the West around 9/20 with the warmth returning. Hope that is nonsense but it is fantasy at this range anyway and the OP GFS so you know. MJO comes out into the Maritime Continent briefly but dives back into the neutral circle again. PNA spikes briefly but drops late in the period so it fits the GFS's run actually today. We'll see. OP GFS brings the 90s back in the fantasy range where the GEFS says low to mid 80s.

Les unless the hurricane season has a big uptick during late to middle September I don't see those 90's at all. Matter of fact we seem to be in the pattern that started in early summer and if that is the case even 80's could be harder to reach. Sure a day or two of 80-82 but getting later in the season and usually the west has more ridging and we start to see those cold fronts dive out of Canada and we end up with some very pleasant weather. The gfs long range has been horrible only outdone by its short term range.