Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:51 am**

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:09 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:03 am I checked Kyle MacRitchie's Experimental MJO model again today and all 4 ensemble members have it going into 7 for the last 10 days of Dec and then into 8 by New Year's. Please, please, please be right.
still have at least a couple weeks of outside stuff i want to get done, if winter can hold off till end of month i would be thrilled!

I'm going thru at least 12/20 right now at the very earliest.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am**

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:26 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:57 am Quick post on the long range... I'm going with a boring and mild pattern if not a torch for Dec 13-20th. Then as we approach Christmas, does the pattern change come in time for Christmas - New Year's period or do we continue to roast? We will continue to talk about those prospects as we get closer but there is no doubt in my mind... we've got a solid week of very warm weather coming up.
I know it'll be a boring and mild period that week, bro, but good travel weather for those like my sister, bil, niece, and nephew as they'll be coming to G'ville for an early Christmas celebration. Sis, bil, and niece will be arriving Tues 12/14 and nephew who is moving to Nashville, TN a few days before, will arrive Thurs 12/16. Then they'll be heading out on Sat 12/18.

Thanks to this latest system and the next one coming this weekend, I'll probably do one last leaf grinding (AGAIN) next week.

Do yourself a favor... don't live where there are a lot of oak trees.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:56 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:28 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:12 am 12Z NAM looks to be getting a clue for the light snow event coming up. 0.16" for CVG QPF wise. 0.12" for DAY and 0.10" for CMH. That's more like it! Or... maybe we all just got NAM'ed!
Timing once again will come into play as this little piece of energy moves through that area. Still love the 4a-9a period for an increase in precip and this is even more pronounced in the spring but it really happens all year. Take anything we can get and love to try out my new snow blower aka broom

What the models have trended too is that the energy starts to dig a bit more right as it moves into the OV which is great. Cold air with this system will not be a problem. The amount of moisture we have to work with is. So the sooner the snow blossoms on radar late Tues night into Wed morning, the better off we will be. Also... the track is not quite etched in stone yet either.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:57 am**

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:43 am Nellie Matt and his family live in Hidden Valley. Has he joined AV since the transition to the new site?

I don't think so. Just checked the member list and I don't see him.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:10 pm**

After the light snow maker Wed morning... then we warm up and get a few showers on Thurs. This won't be a big deal. This is just a leading wave out in front of the bigger system coming Fri - next weekend. The cold front comes in Fri afternoon into Fri night with heavy rain and t-storms. More rain on Sat as the front comes thru. Then, I think the front stalls just east of us with a new low riding up the front to perhaps give us a quick rain to snow changeover Sat night ending early Sun morning. GFS has been showing this idea the last couple of runs so we'll watch it closely. CMC and UKIE and are also showing the idea so we've got some decent model agreement at this time. Then... we warm up and get boring for next week as we watch and see if the pattern is going to change or not post 12/20. That's a brief look folks at the next couple of weeks.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:17 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:26 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:57 am Quick post on the long range... I'm going with a boring and mild pattern if not a torch for Dec 13-20th. Then as we approach Christmas, does the pattern change come in time for Christmas - New Year's period or do we continue to roast? We will continue to talk about those prospects as we get closer but there is no doubt in my mind... we've got a solid week of very warm weather coming up.
I know it'll be a boring and mild period that week, bro, but good travel weather for those like my sister, bil, niece, and nephew as they'll be coming to G'ville for an early Christmas celebration. Sis, bil, and niece will be arriving Tues 12/14 and nephew who is moving to Nashville, TN a few days before, will arrive Thurs 12/16. Then they'll be heading out on Sat 12/18.
Thanks to this latest system and the next one coming this weekend, I'll probably do one last leaf grinding (AGAIN) next week. Do yourself a favor... don't live where there are a lot of oak trees.

That's why my folks and I got rid of our 2 sugar maples over time and are now treeless, bro.

Except we still receive leaves from neighboring ones.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:22 pm**

37 CVG, 38 here as the wind continued to blow and temps continue to slowly drop.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:42 pm**

12Z Euro has I-70 dry for Wed morning's light snow... and 0.04" for CVG. Euro model has been the lowest QPF and coverage model for this event for days now when it seems all other models have a much more region wide event. Again.. whatever we do see isn't going to be much. From 0-1" is probably a good call IMO. Then... the Euro has the two low idea for this weekend's rain maker but the second low gets cut off over the SE US so that's a strange looking solution there. Then we warm up and torch.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:04 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:26 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:57 am Quick post on the long range... I'm going with a boring and mild pattern if not a torch for Dec 13-20th. Then as we approach Christmas, does the pattern change come in time for Christmas - New Year's period or do we continue to roast? We will continue to talk about those prospects as we get closer but there is no doubt in my mind... we've got a solid week of very warm weather coming up.
I know it'll be a boring and mild period that week, bro, but good travel weather for those like my sister, bil, niece, and nephew as they'll be coming to G'ville for an early Christmas celebration. Sis, bil, and niece will be arriving Tues 12/14 and nephew who is moving to Nashville, TN a few days before, will arrive Thurs 12/16. Then they'll be heading out on Sat 12/18.
Thanks to this latest system and the next one coming this weekend, I'll probably do one last leaf grinding (AGAIN) next week. Do yourself a favor... don't live where there are a lot of oak trees.

Ha, drove around yesterday and looked at my Oaks on clients properties. Anywhere from 1/2 to 3/4 full. Drove around this morning. Most of them are done. LOL Can't do anything today with the wind. Go out tomorrow and do what I can and hope and snow we get tomorrow night melts off quickly on Thursday. LOL

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:08 pm**

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:04 pm
Ha, drove around yesterday and looked at my Oaks on clients properties. Anywhere from 1/2 to 3/4 full. Drove around this morning. Most of them are done. LOL Can't do anything today with the wind. Go out tomorrow and do what I can and hope and snow we get tomorrow night melts off quickly on Thursday. LOL

The snow will melt quickly, that shouldn't be an issue. With the next big system coming this weekend, I am going to wait until next week to make sure that they are all down and that the leaves dry out a little bit too. When they are wet, they mat down too much and don't grind up worth a crap.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 3:48 pm**

18Z NAM spits out 0.08" for CVG, DAY, and CMH with the heaviest snows across the N. Cincy burbs. HAO gets 0.11"

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:22 pm**

18Z GFS keeps I-70 dry for the light snow deal and it's a tri-state event. 0.05" QPF at CVG. Then for the weekend storm, we still have the two low idea with rain possibly ending as some flakes. Then obviously and everyone knows, we torch next week... 50s and probably a few 60s too.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:23 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:08 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:04 pm
Ha, drove around yesterday and looked at my Oaks on clients properties. Anywhere from 1/2 to 3/4 full. Drove around this morning. Most of them are done. LOL Can't do anything today with the wind. Go out tomorrow and do what I can and hope and snow we get tomorrow night melts off quickly on Thursday. LOL
The snow will melt quickly, that shouldn't be an issue. With the next big system coming this weekend, I am going to wait until next week to make sure that they are all down and that the leaves dry out a little bit too. When they are wet, they mat down too much and don't grind up worth a crap.

I hear you about the matting down part. I will be blowing, tarping, and putting them in a truck to hall away. I am hoping the wind today blew them into corners and piles for me. Plus dried them out.

I will know in the morning.

Posted: **Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:17 pm**

32 here and at CVG. Look for 20 to 25 most areas in the morning. I suppose in the usual cold spots could see some upper teens but that wind would need to lay down that is for sure. We will struggle to get above freezing tomorrow then all eyes late Tues night into Wed morning is on light snow!

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 6:44 am**

The two month or so pattern rolls on . After the flurries overnight tonight and associated 3/4 day cool shot, the next warm up begins and leads to the Friday/Saturday cold front passage with possible t-storms

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:00 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 6:44 am The two month or so pattern rolls on . After the flurries overnight tonight and associated 3/4 day cool shot, the next warm up begins and leads to the Friday/Saturday cold front passage with possible t-storms

Good Morning Bgoney and the major difference with the pattern is we have moved away from phase 4 of the mjo and we are in a much stormier pattern. The cold remains bottled up for the most part but when a storm crosses the northern USA it does pick up a piece of the cold air and we get the 24-48 period where its below normal only to head above normal. Southern Canada especially in the south central part of the country has got rather cold in the past week with temps in the -10 - -20 range but that is below normal but nothing unusual. The storm in Alaska has warmed them up and probably by 50 degrees in some areas but with the mjo trying to work its way through phase 6 a return to colder temps are coming for them and add that to the amount of snowfall on the ground for much of the state that cold is hard to move without a big storm. The mjo though not the strongest we have ever seen but really is important to have this move into phase 7 in the next 7-10 days. If the wave dies or just meanders in phase 6 the same ole song and dance will happen. Concerning models and the Euro has been okay in certain areas with the few cold shots we have but not perfect by any means and the GFS has been good with the speed of the systems but seems to miss out on some of the cold shots. Once we get closer to phase 7 and hope this happens one day the models will go boom and will be able to see the turnaround but as we know models are a tad slower than the folks who forecast.

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:02 am**

Good morning folks! 22 at CVG this morning, 20 here. Light snow late this evening and overnight. A dusting to perhaps an inch is possible on grassy areas / car tops, etc. The 1" call is going to be isolated so not everyone is going to see that. If you get a dusting be happy and that's it because it'll all melt Wed afternoon anyway.

We warm up with some light showers Thurs. Then more rain and storms Fri and Sat. Strong storms again this go around? We'll need to watch for that. Heavy rain again also is looking likely with another inch plus possible. Can we see some flakes Sat night / early Sun? That will depend on if the 2 low idea is right and where it tracks as the front stalls.

Then we drop briefly for Sunday but warm right back up and quiet down next week. 50s and 60s for highs are likely as the MJO rolls thru Phase 6. The question then becomes this... do we change to a more wintry pattern as we approach Christmas? The jury is still out on that. MJO phase 7 is looking more likely but its impacts are yet to be determined.

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:57 am**

Low was 20 here as well.

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:12 am**

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/12/07/snowta ... pdate-127/

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:41 am**

It's a little chilly out there this morning. 20 here.

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:03 am**

9Z SREF gives CVG, DAY, CMH etc. anywhere from nothing to about a 1/4" of snow. 12z NAM for QPF has 0.04" for CVG, 0.05" for HAO and 0.02" for Dayton and Columbus.

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:30 am**

The NAM

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:33 am**

All we have to do down here is beat 0.1" for the biggest "event" of the season.

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:36 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:00 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 6:44 am The two month or so pattern rolls on . After the flurries overnight tonight and associated 3/4 day cool shot, the next warm up begins and leads to the Friday/Saturday cold front passage with possible t-storms
Good Morning Bgoney and the major difference with the pattern is we have moved away from phase 4 of the mjo and we are in a much stormier pattern. The cold remains bottled up for the most part but when a storm crosses the northern USA it does pick up a piece of the cold air and we get the 24-48 period where its below normal only to head above normal. Southern Canada especially in the south central part of the country has got rather cold in the past week with temps in the -10 - -20 range but that is below normal but nothing unusual. The storm in Alaska has warmed them up and probably by 50 degrees in some areas but with the mjo trying to work its way through phase 6 a return to colder temps are coming for them and add that to the amount of snowfall on the ground for much of the state that cold is hard to move without a big storm. The mjo though not the strongest we have ever seen but really is important to have this move into phase 7 in the next 7-10 days. If the wave dies or just meanders in phase 6 the same ole song and dance will happen. Concerning models and the Euro has been okay in certain areas with the few cold shots we have but not perfect by any means and the GFS has been good with the speed of the systems but seems to miss out on some of the cold shots. Once we get closer to phase 7 and hope this happens one day the models will go boom and will be able to see the turnaround but as we know models are a tad slower than the folks who forecast.

Sums it up nicely Tim. MJO or bust for the last 7 or 8 days of the month. Models may start showing changes for the OV in upcoming long range 21-31 but like many times it may be rushing changes . We can't forget the past few winters where an overpowering anomaly has ruined other seemingly good tellies. Right now imo, that anomaly is the WPO. Anomalis ridging south of the Aleutians has been overwhelming, resulting in the downstream Alaska troughing. Until I see the WPO change dramatically, I don't see our (OV) No-show Arctic air changing dramatically

Posted: **Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:09 am**

PNA still looks to stay negative but the AO / NAO, while very positive right now, might be trying to drop somewhat back towards neutral in the extended range. A little early to call as models can be rushing this sort of thing as we all know, but I'm trying to find some sort of a light at the end of the tunnel here.

Absolutely agree though that it is MJO or bust for us to see things change, if they are going to.

Absolute Vorticity

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