Absolute Vorticity

For now... we get that front on Thurs... and turn colder. That the clipper with another shot of cold air. We warm up after that... could touch 60 again by the middle of next week only to have another front and shot of cold air as we approach Day 10.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:58 am 12Z CMC is going to be coming in further north too. So there you go. The best call for now is rain with perhaps some backside flurries barring any further changes of course.

CMC snow map. As always, this really doesn't mean much at this point. Take it with a grain of salt.

Hey Doug and always nice to see you posting more often. Nice map and you can see the low would be in southwest Kentucky which is normally a great place for a clipper system. Of course we know its mid-November and always somewhat harder to get snow to fall especially during daylight hours. Again I believe it will be further north but its nice to see these maps popping up.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:58 am 12Z CMC is going to be coming in further north too. So there you go. The best call for now is rain with perhaps some backside flurries barring any further changes of course.

CMC snow map. As always, this really doesn't mean much at this point. Take it with a grain of salt.

Probably add some pepper too!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:58 am 12Z CMC is going to be coming in further north too. So there you go. The best call for now is rain with perhaps some backside flurries barring any further changes of course.

Hey Les and I just looked at the CMC and it really agrees with Doug's map. I still believe its going to be further north but the latest models does show snow for us.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:58 am 12Z CMC is going to be coming in further north too. So there you go. The best call for now is rain with perhaps some backside flurries barring any further changes of course.

Hey Les and I just looked at the CMC and it really agrees with Doug's map. I still believe its going to be further north but the latest models does show snow for us.

I think I'm going to keep the call as rain with some backside flurries possible. If anyone sees any accumulation I think it'll be ILN's Northern Tier of counties, like Eric's hood maybe and that's about it. I want to be wrong on this LOL but we've got to be realistic at the same time and go with our climo a little bit esp since it's way early in the season.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:22 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:58 am 12Z CMC is going to be coming in further north too. So there you go. The best call for now is rain with perhaps some backside flurries barring any further changes of course.

Hey Les and I just looked at the CMC and it really agrees with Doug's map. I still believe its going to be further north but the latest models does show snow for us.

I think I'm going to keep the call as rain with some backside flurries possible. If anyone sees any accumulation I think it'll be ILN's Northern Tier of counties, like Eric's hood maybe and that's about it. I want to be wrong on this LOL but we've got to be realistic at the same time and go with our climo a little bit esp since it's way early in the season.

Les I agree with your forecast and we are on the same page. I was just pointing out that the CMC really had not gone further north with the latest run and looking at it I would say its also stronger than before.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:09 pm

dce wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:58 am 12Z CMC is going to be coming in further north too. So there you go. The best call for now is rain with perhaps some backside flurries barring any further changes of course.

CMC snow map. As always, this really doesn't mean much at this point. Take it with a grain of salt.

Hey Doug and always nice to see you posting more often. Nice map and you can see the low would be in southwest Kentucky which is normally a great place for a clipper system. Of course we know its mid-November and always somewhat harder to get snow to fall especially during daylight hours. Again I believe it will be further north but its nice to see these maps popping up.

Yes. It is nice to see these type of maps once again, even if they turn out to be wrong. There are many years we don't see these types of maps until December. If this early winter would happen to pan out, it would be something different than we have seen for quite some time. We are getting used to warm Decembers around here. Lol!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:29 pm
Les I agree with your forecast and we are on the same page. I was just pointing out that the CMC really had not gone further north with the latest run and looking at it I would say its also stronger than before.

Gotcha Tim! I compared the two runs and the biggest difference I see is the Canadian high. 1033 MB on the 0Z run and 1029 MB on the new 12z run. Track is fairly similar.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:37 pm To see these type of maps once again, even if they turn out to be wrong. There are many years we don't see these types of maps until December. If this early winter would happen to pan out, it would be something different than we have seen for quite some time. We are getting used to warm Decembers around here. Lol!

No doubt Doug! The last great December we had was 2010. Been a very long time!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:29 pm
Les I agree with your forecast and we are on the same page. I was just pointing out that the CMC really had not gone further north with the latest run and looking at it I would say its also stronger than before.

Gotcha Tim! I compared the two runs and the biggest difference I see is the Canadian high. 1033 MB on the 0Z run and 1029 MB on the new 12z run. Track is fairly similar.

Les did you see some of those nice high pressures towards the end of the gfs run. With southern Canada and the northern plains and great lakes getting in on some some over the next 10 days or so that high pressure should have no problem in bringing us some really nice cold air by the end of the month. If we can get that correct tellies and have the cross polar flow that is how we get a truly arctic outbreak. The cold in Siberia has been in the northwest part of the area but that is common but that is where we do best with the cross polar cold. Getting cold in Moscow really is never good for us in terms of cold but having it much further northwest in Siberia and then getting a cross polar flow is what we need.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:56 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:29 pm
Les I agree with your forecast and we are on the same page. I was just pointing out that the CMC really had not gone further north with the latest run and looking at it I would say its also stronger than before.

Gotcha Tim! I compared the two runs and the biggest difference I see is the Canadian high. 1033 MB on the 0Z run and 1029 MB on the new 12z run. Track is fairly similar.

Les did you see some of those nice high pressures towards the end of the gfs run. With southern Canada and the northern plains and great lakes getting in on some some over the next 10 days or so that high pressure should have no problem in bringing us some really nice cold air by the end of the month. If we can get that correct tellies and have the cross polar flow that is how we get a truly arctic outbreak. The cold in Siberia has been in the northwest part of the area but that is common but that is where we do best with the cross polar cold. Getting cold in Moscow really is never good for us in terms of cold but having it much further northwest in Siberia and then getting a cross polar flow is what we need.

Yes sir I did! Whether we see any snow or not... Canada is going to fill up with cold air for storm systems to be able to tap into. All models do agree on that idea 100%.

WPO looks to be negative for the foreseeable future. That can help us for later in November and esp in December. Now before anyone stands up and says: "Yeah, but doesn't that promote a -PNA?" Yes, it does. You would be correct. Expect that in a La Nina anyway, remember? So how can we benefit from a -WPO? Need the blocking up top as I've been saying for months. Get a -NAO and we're def in business. Not sure on the NAO part right now, but we have seen bouts of it already in the past. Hence the cut off lows and all of the blocking on Canada. NAO to me looks to be around neutral for the next 2 weeks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:31 am Good morning all! We do have two chances folks at first flakes. Late Sat night into early Sun (then all rain) followed by that clipper system Sun night into Monday of next week. I expect mostly rain out of these systems but first flakes for everyone is indeed possible. We shall see! Until then the 60s thru Thurs then we drop. We look to get wet with that strong cold front on Veteran's Day as well. Wind gusts over 30 mph also possible.

Les, I imagine ILN will hoist a Wind Advisory for some parts of the forecasting areas.

Up to 40 to perhaps 45 mph progged for up my way i.e. for Veterans Day afternoon hours in particular.

Hi Mike,

Great to hear and thankful that you and your family are on the rebound from Covid, Bro!

Our country could really get a handle on that virus and its variants if not for the On Golden Pond loonies.

Currently 59 here in Greenville.

Hey Mike, hope all is well. Okay we have this clipper for coming in Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. The CMC has led the way on this and the latest gfs is rather close to the CMC. The Euro is weaker and further north but the Euro has never been great with clipper systems for some reason. Several things to go over and it will be mid-November so sun is still rather high in the sky and can hurt precip type and amounts during the peak of heating. Saying that a rather nice cold front is coming through Thursday and its not warming up before the event which then would favor snow. The track with the CMC and latest GFS is southwest of the local area so this puts us on the colder side of the event. No real true warm push of air so if you can stay about 75 miles northeast of the low chances are decent some snow will fly. These are tricky and especially since its been awhile since we have had a clipper we try and rely on models at first and then once the system is available we try to track the system. Normally in mid-November clippers are not that common around here but not unheard of so its something we need to watch. My gut tells me the low will be further north and more in line with the Euro but like I mentioned before the Euro is not great at these systems. Fun just to have some possible winter weather. Lucky for me I will be in Hilton Head on Friday for 7 days of golf so I may miss this event.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:31 am Sorry for the lack of posts - actually got COVID in the house and just now getting better. Hey at least I am fully vaxxed now. LOL Sounds like some exciting weather coming up!

Glad you are on the mend.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:59 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:31 am Good morning all! We do have two chances folks at first flakes. Late Sat night into early Sun (then all rain) followed by that clipper system Sun night into Monday of next week. I expect mostly rain out of these systems but first flakes for everyone is indeed possible. We shall see! Until then the 60s thru Thurs then we drop. We look to get wet with that strong cold front on Veteran's Day as well. Wind gusts over 30 mph also possible.

Les, I imagine ILN will hoist a Wind Advisory for some parts of the forecasting areas.

Up to 40 to perhaps 45 mph progged for up my way i.e. for Veterans Day afternoon hours in particular.

Not sure Bro. Advisory or no advisory, it'll be windy either way.

We're going to have to wait until our Vet's Day system moves thru before we can really get a good handle on the clipper for Sunday. We'll have to see how the heights respond as well as the actual strength of this thing. For now... 18Z GFS is coming in weaker but a colder solution as a result. The reason for the weakness is that the low dies as it moves thru here and transfers its energy to another low that forms off the Delmarva Penn. That's a new solution I don't recall seeing much before.

Anyway... we'll see! Nice tomorrow and warm on Thurs (but windy) along with rain Thurs afternoon. Then we drop and see how the clipper treats us on Sun. More cold air after that then we warm up by the middle of next week. Then another system with a cold front towards the end of next week that will likely drops temps again. Busy... busy... busy...

Trying to post an image of the Euro and GFS outline set ups for Sunday via the WHIO7 site and for some reason the set up via attachments here at AV won't allow it.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:29 pm Trying to post an image of the Euro and GFS outline set ups for Sunday via the WHIO7 site and for some reason the set up via attachments here at AV won't allow it.

What kind of file is it? PNG, JPG, or GIF's work just fine. Twitter and Facebook links work as well.

Good morning all! Last dry and mild day before rain and wind move in for Vet's Day in the afternoon. Then we drop and we'll see if any flakes can fall or not with the clipper. Still going with mainly rain but backside flurries are still possible.

BG Snowtalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/10/snowta ... blog-1110/

Hi all - sorry I have been AWOL. I had COVID in January and I am still fighting the many after effects. Quality of life hasn't been great. Hopefully some snow will make me feel better.

Carp

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:15 am Hi all - sorry I have been AWOL. I had COVID in January and I am still fighting the many after effects. Quality of life hasn't been great. Hopefully some snow will make me feel better.

Carp

Sure glad to see you back posting Matt. I hope you can post more often. Prayers man that you can fight off the Chinese Virus!

So far folks... not much change to report over the next week. Gorgeous today, windy tomorrow with rain coming in the afternoon. Then we drop and await rain with possible flakes with the clipper system on Sunday. We moderate next week, perhaps 60 on Wed, then our next system moves in with rain and another temp drop. That's basically it.