Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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I was wondering about that...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:14 pmNWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:11 pmIs this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:06 pm I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so.We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.
I was discussing this with Les and we are in agreement. They may just let it ride due to uncertainties and that’s not a bad call either. But my confidence in anyone in Hamilton Co hitting WSW criteria is pretty low.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:37 pmI was wondering about that...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:14 pmNWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:11 pmIs this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:06 pm I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so.
Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:40 pmI was discussing this with Les and we are in agreement. They may just let it ride due to uncertainties and that’s not a bad call either. But my confidence in anyone in Hamilton Co hitting WSW criteria is pretty low.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:37 pmtron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:14 pmNWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:11 pmIs this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:06 pm I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so.
I was wondering about that...
I'm not in Hamilton County. I'm in Warren County in Middletown, Ohio. That's why I was asking if the snow totals were looking to be less for us as well as the Metro.Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:40 pmI was discussing this with Les and we are in agreement. They may just let it ride due to uncertainties and that’s not a bad call either. But my confidence in anyone in Hamilton Co hitting WSW criteria is pretty low.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:37 pmI was wondering about that...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:14 pmNWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:11 pmIs this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:06 pm I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so.
You never want to open China's closet though. lol
I see you live in Lebanon like me...are we gonna see closer to 3-4" or is it more likely 2-3"?Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:53 pm Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:
Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.
If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.
But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.
I like 1-4” in general for most in the immediate tristate. Just too much uncertainty to narrow it down more than that.Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:53 pmI see you live in Lebanon like me...are we gonna see closer to 3-4" or is it more likely 2-3"?Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:53 pm Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:
Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.
If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.
But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.
Yes Sir! Hopefully we can whiten the ground up again on Thursday.
Les as we know from Saturday temperature before a storm makes a difference especially on the roads. We talked about this Saturday as temps drop quickly in the evening and then got a little milder overnight before the dynamic cooling. Today a different story with sun the temps are rising and will not drop much this evening. So even if we get the dynamic cooling the roads themselves may fare better this time around.
Not sure and all I have is a red flag when I want to challenge my wife on something. I usually lose those challenges and only get 2 a weekBookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:02 pm I just pulled the white flag out of the drawer. Should I let it sail or not!?!?!
