Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:05 pm

The storm track looks to stay south of the Lakes and remains over the OV. Active times are coming... The Domes, hopefully break every so often. At least the chances are there, it's all we can hope for.

Same pattern of ridge(west) ,trough(central), ridge(east) with various strengths of each, that we've had since around Meteorological summer. About as good a blocking over the top you can get in the summer months. As you said , rain chances will be there, but with the mid- level winds staying weak like we've seen , the rain chances for the most part are scattered. But with many days of chances eventually, most should get a fair share of qpf

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:55 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:05 pm

The storm track looks to stay south of the Lakes and remains over the OV. Active times are coming... The Domes, hopefully break every so often. At least the chances are there, it's all we can hope for.

Same pattern of ridge(west) ,trough(central), ridge(east) with various strengths of each, that we've had since around Meteorological summer. About as good a blocking over the top you can get in the summer months. As you said , rain chances will be there, but with the mid- level winds staying weak like we've seen , the rain chances for the most part are scattered. But with many days of chances eventually, most should get a fair share of qpf

Great Post and just to add that much of central,southern plains and southeast along with the lower mid-west and much of the Ohio Valley are doing well in terms of rainfall so any disturbance will have no problem gathering moisture off the ground. The second thing will be the Bermuda High and will it get stronger and move inland which could give us a push of warmer air of will it stay off-shore and we get the pattern of mid-80's for highs and chances of rain most days over the next week.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:03 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:55 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:05 pm

The storm track looks to stay south of the Lakes and remains over the OV. Active times are coming... The Domes, hopefully break every so often. At least the chances are there, it's all we can hope for.

Same pattern of ridge(west) ,trough(central), ridge(east) with various strengths of each, that we've had since around Meteorological summer. About as good a blocking over the top you can get in the summer months. As you said , rain chances will be there, but with the mid- level winds staying weak like we've seen , the rain chances for the most part are scattered. But with many days of chances eventually, most should get a fair share of qpf

Great Post and just to add that much of central,southern plains and southeast along with the lower mid-west and much of the Ohio Valley are doing well in terms of rainfall so any disturbance will have no problem gathering moisture off the ground. The second thing will be the Bermuda High and will it get stronger and move inland which could give us a push of warmer air of will it stay off-shore and we get the pattern of mid-80's for highs and chances of rain most days over the next week.

Great posts by you both. 12Z Euro has spotty action Sat, not much with the better chances coming Sun morning on into next week.

75 / 57 at CVG - Awesome Day!

76 at CVG today, 77 here. Dews slowly beginning to rise tonight.

Got 3 tenths yesterday morning and another tenth last night. Thougth for sure between 9 and 10pm we were going to get hammered. It pushed a little more north of me. I did hear some thunder. Had some drizzle around the area this morning. The little bit of rain has brought back a tint of green but that is about it.

Haven't cut the grass yet for July and no need until we get a decent rain , hopefully next week it will need it

A 40% chance of a watch being issued this evening for the MCS over Eastern Iowa.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1217.html


500 MB winds:
Dew and CAPE gradients:

Minor changes overnight. Still chances for rain the next few days but it seem AV land is in the least or lowest chance for soaking rains for the weekend , with the exception of parts of SE IN and NKY with a slightly better chance, albeit not much. Not expecting much here with everything petering out as it moves eastward for the weekend away from the influence of the cut-off low

HRRR not handling on going clusters of showers in the region , that area to the SW still has some heavy pockets of rain so we'll see what happens when it enters our board

So far, action all around me like always. Hopefully that line in SE IN can make it in here before it falls apart.

Good Morning and what a beautiful evening last night. Really felt like a mid-September night as there was a little chill in the air. No rain yet and let's see how the current area of rain holds up over the next hour or two. Bgoney mentioned he has not mowed his grass in July and I have cut it 3 times. Really wild when you get hit with one of those 1 hour downpours. The lawn is lush and looks like late May. I still believe most folks get a good dose of rainfall this weekend into early next week. Folks to the west have been wet over the past couple of weeks and with any energy its easy to get showers and thundershowers going and it happens so much easier with a lush vegetation. Cvg has only 0.52 inches this month and I live 10 miles to the east and nearing 2 inches and that sounds like summertime weather. The next few days are more like late spring in terms of rainfall so that is why I expect most folks getting on some decent rains. Heat is going to be hard to come by and the more rain we get and vegetation is lush plus we are losing a little daylight then it adds up to no long term heat.

I've had somewhere between 0.10" and 0.15" for the month. That 1/2" CVG got on 7/1 missed me and that tenth I got the other day missed CVG. NW part of the county and S parts of the county have been the wet spots here. The Dome could use a break and with that line coming in, looks like it may have a chance.

Black skies to my SW and West. Thundering now... the dome is about to break!

A pleasant surprise to me its holding together, hope it can make it into my hood intact

Around a quarter of an inch here. 0.18" at the Boone Co mesonet site. CVG - Not sure, mesowest site isn't reporting precip right now.

Carroll Co and Owen Co mesonet sites are in the 0.40" range now. Probably should see 0.30" to 0.50" totals in NKY from this line. We'll take it! Good luck Bgoney, Gina, Mike, and anyone else whose yards could use a drink.

Nice little round of rain and even heard thunder once. Hopefully this is the first round of several over the next 3 days.

Just a few harmless sprinkles here as usual lol

Back edge is approaching but happy with how the first round panned out here locally. Again, hope the rest of you can muster up something this weekend. Mike... it's trying!!

Good thing is we have the warm front over western Ky and southwest In. Hopefully as this moves northeast later today and if we can get the sun out this will lead to some decent showers and thundershowers later this afternoon and early evening. Where will the next mcs form overnight and again models tend to have problem in placement and more of a now cast in regards to them.

The current mcs's are not quite what we often see in mid-June - mid-July. We don't have the ring of fire we often see over the central and southern plains. We are getting pushes of hot air from the west but only goes so far plus we are developing a low pressure with a warm front which is rather rare this time of year. Interesting pattern and one we don't see that often this time of year but it no doubt is keeping any extended heat away. Normally by this time of year we would have seen several heat advisories in the central and southern plains but they have been rare at best.

Final totals from round 1: CVG - 0.18"
Me: 0.26"
Boone Co mesonet site: 0.26"