May 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Great outside. Frost advisory for northeast Ohio. Would not be surprised to see some upper 30's in the normally cold areas Thursday morning. Cvg of course will be milder.

[tpweather]

Looks like the late Friday system will bring in totals once again no more than .25. Maybe higher if a brief thundershower but most folks get just enough to water the plants. Then we could be in for a longer period with no rainfall but the temps and humidity will not get out of hand. Hopefully when the pattern turns warmer the rains return at a higher rate.

[tron777]

69 with a dew of 50 at CVG as of 2pm. It doesn't get much better for a late spring day.

[winterstormjoe]

Just looked at last night's and the noon GFS and It's trying to poke the 588's in to our area by later next week with around 90 possible, but like what was mentioned on the forum that a front and/or cut off low may materialize then.

On another note: There's an article out there saying that in combo of a strong El Nino and climate change (yes, they had to mention that of course) that there will be a lot of record heat coming. I didn't bother to read the article! LOL

[tpweather]

Just looked at last night's and the noon GFS and It's trying to poke the 588's in to our area by later next week with around 90 possible, but like what was mentioned on the forum that a front and/or cut off low may materialize then.

On another note: There's an article out there saying that in combo of a strong El Nino and climate change (yes, they had to mention that of course) that there will be a lot of record heat coming. I didn't bother to read the article! LOL

Hey Joe, every year we have record heat somewhere at sometime during the year. These folks just throw out stuff and folks just believe its true. This climate crusade may be the biggest hoax ever on human beings. They lie and hope folks don't call them out. Sure we can have warming like we have in the oceans at this time but its happen many time before and will happen many times in the future.

[tron777]

Just looked at last night's and the noon GFS and It's trying to poke the 588's in to our area by later next week with around 90 possible, but like what was mentioned on the forum that a front and/or cut off low may materialize then.

On another note: There's an article out there saying that in combo of a strong El Nino and climate change (yes, they had to mention that of course) that there will be a lot of record heat coming. I didn't bother to read the article! LOL

Hey Joe, every year we have record heat somewhere at sometime during the year. These folks just throw out stuff and folks just believe its true. This climate crusade may be the biggest hoax ever on human beings. They lie and hope folks don't call them out. Sure we can have warming like we have in the oceans at this time but its happen many time before and will happen many times in the future.

Agreed... great posting guys! There is an area of cooler weather every summer and a death ridge every summer. We hope to be in between the two areas for beneficial rainfall. We will deal with whatever cards we are dealt.

[winterstormjoe]

Just looked at last night's and the noon GFS and It's trying to poke the 588's in to our area by later next week with around 90 possible, but like what was mentioned on the forum that a front and/or cut off low may materialize then.

On another note: There's an article out there saying that in combo of a strong El Nino and climate change (yes, they had to mention that of course) that there will be a lot of record heat coming. I didn't bother to read the article! LOL

Hey Joe, every year we have record heat somewhere at sometime during the year. These folks just throw out stuff and folks just believe its true. This climate crusade may be the biggest hoax ever on human beings. They lie and hope folks don't call them out. Sure we can have warming like we have in the oceans at this time but its happen many time before and will happen many times in the future.

Hey Tim, exactly...and there will always be record cold somewhere at sometime. Just like La Nina's with extremes, there will be extremes with El Nino's to. Everything in climate goes in cycles that have been happening for millions of years.

[tpweather]

I agree guys and we can only hope folks do more research before just agreeing. The one thing I do know is that since I have been part time in Greenville,SC the rainfall has been way above normal. This year so far around 10 inches above normal and over the past 4 years my guess is probably 30-40 p/c above normal. That makes the late spring into early fall very humid but does keep the high temps down and have seen very few 100 degree days. I only have another 30-35 days left and time to move on lol.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a third of an inch Fri night / early Sat. Hope it's right because chances thru Day 10 after that, look slim.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG and myself are on the board with 0.02" as of 11am. I also went out and voted today. It is Primary Day in the state of KY, and we have a Gov. to vote on for the Republican side who will challenge Andy Beshear in Nov, plus a few other state offices. If you are a resident of KY and are a registered Dem or Rep, then please vote! Thank you!

Good Morning Les and the laws need to be changed for independent voters. I never will commit to either party and only vote after research for each party involved. This is where the two parties come together and not allowing folks of legal age to vote. Bad move on both parties.

Hi Tim,

One of the GOP for the 2024 WH run, Vivek Ramaswamy, proposed raising the voting age to 25!

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

That is funny Eric,hope you and your family are doing well. Instead of an age requirement we need common sense test to see who can vote

Yes indeed common sense a lot more so bro.

My folks and I are doing well and thank you for asking. I got a great report on my liver checkup followup with my hepatologist Dr. Ken Sherman at U.C. Health last week as a 3 centimeter hemangioma is benign and also have a cyst on the liver which is nothing dire either. I'll have an annual specialized CT scan again next April or May to keep monitored and I'm so thankful that God led me to Dr. Sherman who heads up the dept at U.C. as he'll be retiring to Boston, MA with his wife in June so that they can be near their kids and grandkids. I saw him initially this past Dec 7th. I'll start seeing his practitioner Carrie Jennings next May.

Prayerfully you and yours are doing well, too.

Currently 63 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Morning Les and only got to 50 at my house and up to 53 already. Forecast looks good and next week may be a wonderful week as a trough over the southeast USA may be just far enough away to give us sunny and warm days but keep the humidity away. Would still love to see more rain but the lower humidity is something I enjoy. Still waiting to make prediction on the 90 degree days because I believe June may be the wild card so might as well wait until the end of May

Do we see the 80s and a cold frontal passage around Memorial Day weekend or does a cut off upper low impact our forecast? That is the challenge that I see in the extended range. Until then, the forecast is pretty easy and fairly straight forward. In terms of the 90 degree contest, I guess it boils down to do you believe in the current pattern being our summer pattern or a death ridge sets up shop for a while to give us more 90s for a time? Both solutions I think are plausible at this distance. Watch future rainfall and soil moistures over the next 2 weeks. That may also help you in making up your mind.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... lmst.shtml

Hi Les,

My cousin Taylor and her fiance Caleb are tying the knot on Sat afternoon May 27th at an outdoor venue in Whitestown, IN (near Indy) so will be keeping tabs here whether it'll be outside as scheduled or relocated inside. They'll be having the wedding dinner reception and dancing inside a bldg on the property.

[tron777]

Hey there Eric .. definably hoping for nice weather for their life changing day!

Mowed the lawn and fertilized my young plants today. Green beans are starting to pop!

[tron777]

40s again this morning.... 46 IMBY, CVG 47 Mid to U70s today with sunny skies! Rain comes in an isolated fashion tomorrow, best chance Fri night ending Sat morning. 0.25" or less expected. Gorgeous early next week then we heat up with middle 80s possible the second half of next week. Little in the way of rain expected until we see how the Holiday Weekend shapes up.

[tron777]

Right now, the way the extended range is looking to me, we heat up into the 80s next week as previously mentioned. Then chance POPS along with a warm and humid Memorial Day Weekend is on tap. Typical heating of the day t-storms. Then we cool down once June hits and we're back to NW Flow and a +PNA pattern once again. Let's see how this idea looks once we get closer.

[tron777]

68 now at CVG with another beauty in progress! Hope all can get out and enjoy the day if only for a little bit. No real whole sale changes after viewing the 12Z GFS with regards to the ongoing forecast.

[tron777]

Low to mid 70s out there this afternoon for most locations with dews in the 40s and lower 50s! Moisture will slowly increase tonight into tomorrow. Shower chances are small until Fri night. Still thinking amounts are light like the last event unfortunately.

[tron777]

75 here today, CVG the same.

[Bgoney]

Looks like an extended dry spelll coming up for the next 10 days or so . A few rain chances of course but compared to normal , qpf should be below normal for the he OV. NW flow in late May is not a wet signal for us and with a trough in the SE instead of high pressure, flow out of the GOM will be limited during this time period

[MVWxObserver]

Hey there Eric .. definably hoping for nice weather for their life changing day!

Mowed the lawn and fertilized my young plants today. Green beans are starting to pop!

Thank you bro!

I haven't seen my cousins Taylor and her bro Peyton since 2015. It'll be a neat reunion and Caleb welcome to the family!

Currently 64 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Looks like an extended dry spelll coming up for the next 10 days or so . A few rain chances of course but compared to normal , qpf should be below normal for the he OV. NW flow in late May is not a wet signal for us and with a trough in the SE instead of high pressure, flow out of the GOM will be limited during this time period

Totally agree... the best chance is tonight into early Sat and that's not looking very heavy either. Then I was hoping the cut off low would be around for the holiday weekend but that now looks to stay south of us as you said due to high pressure nosing in from the Great Lakes. Thus, the 80s continue. Maybe by Memorial Day itself or shortly thereafter we'll have another system by then to track.

[tron777]

Just a side note, but it looks like NWS Offices are going to be doing away with advisory headlines. There is a survey you can take to voice your opinions.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/HazSimp23

So at some point for example, a winter weather advisory will be a thing of the past.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Precip for tonight at CVG:

12Z NAM - 0.07"
12Z GFS - 0.60"
12Z Euro - 0.40"

I'm surprised at the uptick on the globals. NAM seems to be more of the way to go based on the last few systems performances around here. A slower speed may help with storms but at the same time, everything will be weakening due to it coming in overnight. Lack of CAPE. So no severe wx is expected. I kind of question those higher totals too honestly. 12Z HRRR is like the NAM. Higher swaths north and south of the CVG Metro area. We cannot rule out getting the shaft. 2 models give us the shaft, two others give us exactly what the Dr. ordered.

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

Just a side note, but it looks like NWS Offices are going to be doing away with advisory headlines. There is a survey you can take to voice your opinions.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/HazSimp23

So at some point for example, a winter weather advisory will be a thing of the past.

Thank you Bro for the posting that link!

For myself, I took the survey and at the end said "Your format looks great as it is!"