May 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Pockets of more moderate rainfall are moving thru our S counties now. So far everything has been light in my backyard.

[tron777]

CVG and myself are on the board with 0.02" as of 11am. I also went out and voted today. It is Primary Day in the state of KY, and we have a Gov. to vote on for the Republican side who will challenge Andy Beshear in Nov, plus a few other state offices. If you are a resident of KY and are a registered Dem or Rep, then please vote! Thank you!

[tpweather]

CVG and myself are on the board with 0.02" as of 11am. I also went out and voted today. It is Primary Day in the state of KY, and we have a Gov. to vote on for the Republican side who will challenge Andy Beshear in Nov, plus a few other state offices. If you are a resident of KY and are a registered Dem or Rep, then please vote! Thank you!

Good Morning Les and the laws need to be changed for independent voters. I never will commit to either party and only vote after research for each party involved. This is where the two parties come together and not allowing folks of legal age to vote. Bad move on both parties.

[tron777]

CVG and myself are on the board with 0.02" as of 11am. I also went out and voted today. It is Primary Day in the state of KY, and we have a Gov. to vote on for the Republican side who will challenge Andy Beshear in Nov, plus a few other state offices. If you are a resident of KY and are a registered Dem or Rep, then please vote! Thank you!

Good Morning Les and the laws need to be changed for independent voters. I never will commit to either party and only vote after research for each party involved. This is where the two parties come together and not allowing folks of legal age to vote. Bad move on both parties.

Yeah, I agree. Potential voters are being lost for sure Tim. I wish your voice could be heard today also.

[winterstormjoe]

CVG and myself are on the board with 0.02" as of 11am. I also went out and voted today. It is Primary Day in the state of KY, and we have a Gov. to vote on for the Republican side who will challenge Andy Beshear in Nov, plus a few other state offices. If you are a resident of KY and are a registered Dem or Rep, then please vote! Thank you!

Good Morning Les and the laws need to be changed for independent voters. I never will commit to either party and only vote after research for each party involved. This is where the two parties come together and not allowing folks of legal age to vote. Bad move on both parties.

Yeah, I agree. Potential voters are being lost for sure Tim. I wish your voice could be heard today also.

And in some states they want as many votes as they can get, heck if they could they would want your pet registered to vote! Lol lol

Boy, I sure hope my nephew can get his ballgame in later this afternoon in the Colerain area with just some sprinkles and the heavier stuff stays away?

[tron777]

CVG and myself are on the board with 0.02" as of 11am. I also went out and voted today. It is Primary Day in the state of KY, and we have a Gov. to vote on for the Republican side who will challenge Andy Beshear in Nov, plus a few other state offices. If you are a resident of KY and are a registered Dem or Rep, then please vote! Thank you!

Good Morning Les and the laws need to be changed for independent voters. I never will commit to either party and only vote after research for each party involved. This is where the two parties come together and not allowing folks of legal age to vote. Bad move on both parties.

Yeah, I agree. Potential voters are being lost for sure Tim. I wish your voice could be heard today also.

And in some states they want as many votes as they can get, heck if they could they would want your pet registered to vote! Lol lol

Boy, I sure hope my nephew can get his ballgame in later this afternoon in the Colerain area with just some sprinkles and the heavier stuff stays away?

Hi Joe... I'm thinking it should be winding down to drizzle after 5pm.

[tron777]

As of 2pm, only 0.06" at CVG, models busting badly with this one. Next chance comes late Fri into early Sat morning. Then, we'll see how things look once we get that string of 80s going as we get closer to the Holiday Weekend. Low confidence in determining POPS and on what days.

[cloudy72]

As of 2pm, only 0.06" at CVG, models busting badly with this one. Next chance comes late Fri into early Sat morning. Then, we'll see how things look once we get that string of 80s going as we get closer to the Holiday Weekend. Low confidence in determining POPS and on what days.

Great post Les! Most of the models had me teetering on the northern edge and actually ended up with 0.13" so happy with that! Thought sure you guys would cash in more.

[tron777]

As of 2pm, only 0.06" at CVG, models busting badly with this one. Next chance comes late Fri into early Sat morning. Then, we'll see how things look once we get that string of 80s going as we get closer to the Holiday Weekend. Low confidence in determining POPS and on what days.

Great post Les! Most of the models had me teetering on the northern edge and actually ended up with 0.13" so happy with that! Thought sure you guys would cash in more.

Thanks Mike! I was expecting a quarter inch here. We may add another 0.01 or 0.02" but that's probably going to be it.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and so far 0.17 at my house. Of course much higher totals nearing I-64 as expected plus some tornado warnings southeast of the Lexington area with severe thunderstorm watch out for much of southern Kentucky

[tron777]

12Z euro has a quarter of an inch for Fri night and that's it over the next 10 days. Luckily we are cool until later next week. Hope to see Friday night's rains improve.

[tpweather]

12Z euro has a quarter of an inch for Fri night and that's it over the next 10 days. Luckily we are cool until later next week. Hope to see Friday night's rains improve.

I wish Les but with the upcoming pattern the deeper moisture is staying much further south during this period. Hopefully though by early June once we get warmer rain will also be in the pattern. Rather chilly air masses especially over the northeast part of the USA. This is nothing new for this time of year and matter of fact many years you will see snow in New England. Eastern Canada and the northeast USA are usually the last to warm up during the spring so these air masses can be downright chilly even for us and Thursday morning would not be surprised to see lower 40's and maybe an upper 30 or so in the colder valleys.

[tron777]

12Z euro has a quarter of an inch for Fri night and that's it over the next 10 days. Luckily we are cool until later next week. Hope to see Friday night's rains improve.

I wish Les but with the upcoming pattern the deeper moisture is staying much further south during this period. Hopefully though by early June once we get warmer rain will also be in the pattern. Rather chilly air masses especially over the northeast part of the USA. This is nothing new for this time of year and matter of fact many years you will see snow in New England. Eastern Canada and the northeast USA are usually the last to warm up during the spring so these air masses can be downright chilly even for us and Thursday morning would not be surprised to see lower 40's and maybe an upper 30 or so in the colder valleys.

Agreed Tim... NW flow aloft keeps us cool but also dry. We need a more southerly flow. That means more warmth but does allow deeper Gulf moisture to get involved. So tough to have it both ways, it usually never works lol

[winterstormjoe]

12Z euro has a quarter of an inch for Fri night and that's it over the next 10 days. Luckily we are cool until later next week. Hope to see Friday night's rains improve.

I wish Les but with the upcoming pattern the deeper moisture is staying much further south during this period. Hopefully though by early June once we get warmer rain will also be in the pattern. Rather chilly air masses especially over the northeast part of the USA. This is nothing new for this time of year and matter of fact many years you will see snow in New England. Eastern Canada and the northeast USA are usually the last to warm up during the spring so these air masses can be downright chilly even for us and Thursday morning would not be surprised to see lower 40's and maybe an upper 30 or so in the colder valleys.

Guys, I'm hoping that with the cooler NE part of our country and getting warmer to our SW will get the ring of fire going on here come June?

[tpweather]

12Z euro has a quarter of an inch for Fri night and that's it over the next 10 days. Luckily we are cool until later next week. Hope to see Friday night's rains improve.

I wish Les but with the upcoming pattern the deeper moisture is staying much further south during this period. Hopefully though by early June once we get warmer rain will also be in the pattern. Rather chilly air masses especially over the northeast part of the USA. This is nothing new for this time of year and matter of fact many years you will see snow in New England. Eastern Canada and the northeast USA are usually the last to warm up during the spring so these air masses can be downright chilly even for us and Thursday morning would not be surprised to see lower 40's and maybe an upper 30 or so in the colder valleys.

Guys, I'm hoping that with the cooler NE part of our country and getting warmer to our SW will get the ring of fire going on here come June?

Hey Joe,great post and that is very possible. Exactly where the ring of fire ends up is always hard to predict this far out but once it gets going you can get a nice 2-3 week period where it rains quite often. At this point it does appear there should be plenty of moisture to work with in the southern plains and ride northward then dive southeast.

[tron777]

12Z euro has a quarter of an inch for Fri night and that's it over the next 10 days. Luckily we are cool until later next week. Hope to see Friday night's rains improve.

I wish Les but with the upcoming pattern the deeper moisture is staying much further south during this period. Hopefully though by early June once we get warmer rain will also be in the pattern. Rather chilly air masses especially over the northeast part of the USA. This is nothing new for this time of year and matter of fact many years you will see snow in New England. Eastern Canada and the northeast USA are usually the last to warm up during the spring so these air masses can be downright chilly even for us and Thursday morning would not be surprised to see lower 40's and maybe an upper 30 or so in the colder valleys.

Guys, I'm hoping that with the cooler NE part of our country and getting warmer to our SW will get the ring of fire going on here come June?

Hey Joe,great post and that is very possible. Exactly where the ring of fire ends up is always hard to predict this far out but once it gets going you can get a nice 2-3 week period where it rains quite often. At this point it does appear there should be plenty of moisture to work with in the southern plains and ride northward then dive southeast.

We talk about the possibility every year yet it never seems to set up shop for us. We shall see if this summer is different or not here fairly soon.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG and myself are on the board with 0.02" as of 11am. I also went out and voted today. It is Primary Day in the state of KY, and we have a Gov. to vote on for the Republican side who will challenge Andy Beshear in Nov, plus a few other state offices. If you are a resident of KY and are a registered Dem or Rep, then please vote! Thank you!

Good Morning Les and the laws need to be changed for independent voters. I never will commit to either party and only vote after research for each party involved. This is where the two parties come together and not allowing folks of legal age to vote. Bad move on both parties.

Hi Tim,

One of the GOP for the 2024 WH run, Vivek Ramaswamy, proposed raising the voting age to 25!

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

47 in my hood this morning. No fog here but in some areas it is dense so be mindful in those typical places. A cool morning but the 70s are calling this afternoon! Same for tomorrow, low to mid 40s in the morning, mid 70s in the afternoon. Fantastic the next 2 days folks.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and only got to 50 at my house and up to 53 already. Forecast looks good and next week may be a wonderful week as a trough over the southeast USA may be just far enough away to give us sunny and warm days but keep the humidity away. Would still love to see more rain but the lower humidity is something I enjoy. Still waiting to make prediction on the 90 degree days because I believe June may be the wild card so might as well wait until the end of May

[tpweather]

CVG and myself are on the board with 0.02" as of 11am. I also went out and voted today. It is Primary Day in the state of KY, and we have a Gov. to vote on for the Republican side who will challenge Andy Beshear in Nov, plus a few other state offices. If you are a resident of KY and are a registered Dem or Rep, then please vote! Thank you!

Good Morning Les and the laws need to be changed for independent voters. I never will commit to either party and only vote after research for each party involved. This is where the two parties come together and not allowing folks of legal age to vote. Bad move on both parties.

Hi Tim,

One of the GOP for the 2024 WH run, Vivek Ramaswamy, proposed raising the voting age to 25!

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

That is funny Eric,hope you and your family are doing well. Instead of an age requirement we need common sense test to see who can vote

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and only got to 50 at my house and up to 53 already. Forecast looks good and next week may be a wonderful week as a trough over the southeast USA may be just far enough away to give us sunny and warm days but keep the humidity away. Would still love to see more rain but the lower humidity is something I enjoy. Still waiting to make prediction on the 90 degree days because I believe June may be the wild card so might as well wait until the end of May

Do we see the 80s and a cold frontal passage around Memorial Day weekend or does a cut off upper low impact our forecast? That is the challenge that I see in the extended range. Until then, the forecast is pretty easy and fairly straight forward. In terms of the 90 degree contest, I guess it boils down to do you believe in the current pattern being our summer pattern or a death ridge sets up shop for a while to give us more 90s for a time? Both solutions I think are plausible at this distance. Watch future rainfall and soil moistures over the next 2 weeks. That may also help you in making up your mind.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... lmst.shtml

[tron777]

One other thing to add... both Oceans, the Atlantic and Pacific are warming rapidly! We have no analogs to cover this. We have 1 analog to cover an El Nino coming off of a 3 year Nina and that is 1976. However, back then, we did not have major oceanic warming as we do right now and El Nino was weak for the 76-77 winter. Our current El Nino is going to be a moderate to strong one IMO the way things are looking to me. Going to be interesting to see how both oceans in a very warm state impact the overall pattern this year.

[tpweather]

One other thing to add... both Oceans, the Atlantic and Pacific are warming rapidly! We have no analogs to cover this. We have 1 analog to cover an El Nino coming off of a 3 year Nina and that is 1976. However, back then, we did not have major oceanic warming as we do right now and El Nino was weak for the 76-77 winter. Our current El Nino is going to be a moderate to strong one IMO the way things are looking to me. Going to be interesting to see how both oceans in a very warm state impact the overall pattern this year.

Great Post Les and I believe you hit the wildcard and that is how warm the oceans are and what impact this will have. Still not sure how strong the El Nino will be and my guess we will not know that answer until this fall. Normally a cool fall results when an El NIno starts but who knows with how warm the ocean waters are and that may keep warmth around longer. The one thing we usually get though is more precip though last year look at the western states and how much precip they got with the end of an La Nina. So many things to look at and again for us blocking in the correct place is always key for us to get a decent winter if you like snow

[tron777]

One other thing to add... both Oceans, the Atlantic and Pacific are warming rapidly! We have no analogs to cover this. We have 1 analog to cover an El Nino coming off of a 3 year Nina and that is 1976. However, back then, we did not have major oceanic warming as we do right now and El Nino was weak for the 76-77 winter. Our current El Nino is going to be a moderate to strong one IMO the way things are looking to me. Going to be interesting to see how both oceans in a very warm state impact the overall pattern this year.

Great Post Les and I believe you hit the wildcard and that is how warm the oceans are and what impact this will have. Still not sure how strong the El Nino will be and my guess we will not know that answer until this fall. Normally a cool fall results when an El NIno starts but who knows with how warm the ocean waters are and that may keep warmth around longer. The one thing we usually get though is more precip though last year look at the western states and how much precip they got with the end of an La Nina. So many things to look at and again for us blocking in the correct place is always key for us to get a decent winter if you like snow

The warming in the Western ENSO regions (3.4 and 4) is amazing! Same with the warming over the Atlantic waters and in the MDR (Main Development Region for the tropics) . Normally El Nino's yield quieter ATL tropical seasons but with a super warm ocean, that may not be the case. My confidence is low in our summer pattern as well as the tropics.... let alone winter lol

[tron777]

60 as of 10am at CVG. It feels so nice out with a warming sun, low humidity and calm winds.