Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:36 am
I think the afternoon update from NWS will be interesting.
Hey Pepper! Good to see to you.
I think your area is in line for something in that 3-6" range.Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Page 9 of 18
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:00 pm
I think your area is in line for something in that 3-6" range.Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:02 pm
15z HRRR barely gives a dusting, then a break and then we go to mix. Not good for any snow potential, definitely starting to see the ice potential.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:27 pm
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:30 pm
Def a sleet signal in there, @Aaron
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:30 pm
I believe what you are seeing is at the end of the run we are about to get those few hours of dynamic cooling so once this model goes out a few more hours we will see the snow and yes I believe sleet involved. Louisville may be more sleet than snow imo and here a few hours of snow then some sleet and then to all rain. I believe that is how the model will play this out and we will see by 3 or 4pm today.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:33 pm
Not so sure about that. The high-res NAM is a bit colder but a pretty close match to the HRRR. Quick snow to sleet/freezing rain then rain.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:30 pmI believe what you are seeing is at the end of the run we are about to get those few hours of dynamic cooling so once this model goes out a few more hours we will the snow and yes I believe sleet involved. Louisville may be more sleet than snow imo and here a few hours of snow then some sleet and then to all rain. I believe that is how the model will play this out and we will see by 3 or 4pm today.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:39 pm
This is going to be a great storm. A lot of clients will be calling for sure. lol Oh well, I can't control what time this comes in.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:43 pm
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:43 pm
Trev, not sure what you met about this post. Seems what I mentioned is similar to your post.Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:33 pmNot so sure about that. The high-res NAM is a bit colder but a pretty close match to the HRRR. Quick snow to sleet/freezing rain then rain.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:30 pmI believe what you are seeing is at the end of the run we are about to get those few hours of dynamic cooling so once this model goes out a few more hours we will the snow and yes I believe sleet involved. Louisville may be more sleet than snow imo and here a few hours of snow then some sleet and then to all rain. I believe that is how the model will play this out and we will see by 3 or 4pm today.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:46 pm
Update from the boys and they are raising the same concerns that we are on here:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expecting a dry forecast through this time with the possible
exception of the far southwest CWA covering the lower Whitewater
Valley and portions of northern Kentucky west of the I-75
corridor. Indications are for this to be snow, but a thin line
of the rain/snow changeover runs along the Ohio River, cuts
south of the Cincy metro area and then extends ene.
High cloud cover will continue to overspread the region and
limit highs today to the mid 30s north and mid 40s south, in
conjunction with the snow cover. Morning forecast update bumped
these highs by 1-2 degrees across the board.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Went beyond the earlier period to raise overnight min temps to
show warmer readings in the south and keep the rain threat
within the warmer boundary layers. This effectively narrowed the
brief period of freezing rain that is possible before at or just
before daybreak.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expecting a dry forecast through this time with the possible
exception of the far southwest CWA covering the lower Whitewater
Valley and portions of northern Kentucky west of the I-75
corridor. Indications are for this to be snow, but a thin line
of the rain/snow changeover runs along the Ohio River, cuts
south of the Cincy metro area and then extends ene.
High cloud cover will continue to overspread the region and
limit highs today to the mid 30s north and mid 40s south, in
conjunction with the snow cover. Morning forecast update bumped
these highs by 1-2 degrees across the board.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Went beyond the earlier period to raise overnight min temps to
show warmer readings in the south and keep the rain threat
within the warmer boundary layers. This effectively narrowed the
brief period of freezing rain that is possible before at or just
before daybreak.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:47 pm
start time here is around 9 am tomorrow
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:49 pm
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:53 pm
Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:
Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.
If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.
But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.
Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.
If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.
But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:00 pm
We are definitely on the edge here. I think this is why Hamilton County is in the warning- good chance of a sharp gradient across the county from SE to NW.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:06 pm
I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so. 
We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.
We've talked about this for days that the faster the low gets going, the less snowy of an outcome it would be. That is exactly what we are seeing play out on guidance last night and again today.Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:11 pm
Is this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:06 pm I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:14 pm
NWS ILN will update at some point this afternoon. We'll just have to wait and see what direction they go in. If I was a Pro Met and had to make the call, I'd go with an advisory and drop the warning.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:11 pmIs this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:06 pm I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:18 pm
This update was for Hamilton Co/Cincy since that’s where my friends/fam reside.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:11 pmIs this just for the Metro, Les or for all of us? We are still under a Winter Storm Warning, and they are saying 4-6 inches...tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:06 pm I have to agree with your update Trev as much as it pains me to do so.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:20 pm
Pressures are dropping quickest in southeast Texas around the Houston area with already a 1002 reading. This shows the pressure drops are further to the west than most models predicted. Over the next 6-10 hours most models had this riding up the Mississippi River between 1000 and 1004. Will watch this as time goes on but the further west development of the low does not usually bode well.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:25 pm
14 minutes ago...
WeatherBELL@weatherbell
12z ECMWF data is delayed due to internet connectivity issues upstream at ECMWF. We are closely monitoring and will provide more info as soon as we can.
WeatherBELL@weatherbell
12z ECMWF data is delayed due to internet connectivity issues upstream at ECMWF. We are closely monitoring and will provide more info as soon as we can.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:25 pm
Very similar to the one I sent to my neighbors here in northern Kentucky. I have rain switching a period of snow then a period of sleet and then rain. I have 1-3 inches in the Edgewood area but I believe fr/rain was never in my equation.Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:53 pm Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:
Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.
If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.
But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:26 pm
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:29 pm
MD issued for heavy snow in Central and NE OK into NW AR:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0094.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0094.html
Re: Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:30 pm
With marginal temperatures any freezing rain that does mix in won’t do much to be honest. It’d be brief and during the mixing transition to plain jane rain/drizzle. Just mentioned for technical purposes.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:25 pmVery similar to the one I sent to my neighbors here in northern Kentucky. I have rain switching a period of snow then a period of sleet and then rain. I have 1-3 inches in the Edgewood area but I believe fr/rain was never in my equation.Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:53 pm Update I posted in the group chat of friends and fam:
Little update re: winter storm. My confidence in hitting 3 or 4” in the 275 loop is decreasing based on newer model guidance, so I am going to adjust my forecast down from 2-5” to 1-4”. That’s a bigger range than I’d typically like to go with, but the temperature profile around the area is going to be extremely sensitive. Razor thin margin. I’m thinking a little more sleet and even some freezing rain will mix in and cut down on snow totals due to warmer air aloft getting involved.
If we stay snow longer, the higher end of the range will play out and if we mix to other precip types sooner, the lower end. Still looking very messy for the morning commute, but sleet is much more manageable than snow. Some models are still colder and giving us the higher end but I’m not super confident in that occurring. I’m playing my cards on the lower end of the range (inch or two) with sleet and some freezing rain before we switch to Plain Jane rain/drizzle by mid morning.
But like I said, razor thin margin we are talking here.