Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:13 am

Snow43130 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:56 am

Snow43130 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:52 am The ice threat possible here is what worries me and will that continue into Friday?

Should be ending as snow sometime Thurs night or early Fri. Depending on where you are.

I'm in Lancaster inside Fairfield County

I'd be worried about ice, sleet, and some snow on top of it. We have a couple more days to fine tune.

Thanks I really appreciate you getting back with me on this , I will keep reading up on this messy storm

Hopefully the NAM is the NW outlier now. We'll see shortly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:26 am Hopefully the NAM is the NW outlier now. We'll see shortly.

It just looks like usual NAM noise 48 hrs out. The Low track is unlike anything we have seen this winter. That pains me to begin with.

Euro-GFS ice spread is 0.59-0.69 - that seems realistic and consistent.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:10 am I know Thursday will be bad - because I have to drive up to Dayton for an appointment. LOL Very concerned about ice....and maybe some nice wrap-around snows at the tail end. The last GFS run was flat out ominous for most on here.

Hi Mike,

I have a strong feeling that many will be staying home and off the thoroughfares on Thurs.

Authorities may even put in stay off the roads orders, emergency personnel vehicles and ODOT only.

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/01/31/snowta ... pdate-131/

Usually I roll out the trash cart on Thurs for Fri pickup. This week plan to do it on Wed.

Hopefully trash service trucks crews can even get around Fri.

I'm supposed to go to northern Michigan Friday for our annual snowshoe trip. I've been hanging on every model run for the last 10 days. I don't get too worked up about the roads, but I won't leave my house with the threat of a power outage. I'll be watching very closely. Thanks to all you guys for your continued analysis.

06z Euro continues the ice storm look for the metro. Looks like we switch to freezing rain around noon on Thursday as temperatures begin to fall.

12z NAM is running. At hour 33 now.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:06 am 12z NAM is running. At hour 33 now.

It looks out to lunch already…540 line halfway into Michigan, pushing ice line into Canada with a 988 low to the North… I’m not buying it.

A new name for this storm. The garbage disposal storm. As far as I'm concerned that is where it belongs.

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:12 am A new name for this storm. The garbage disposal storm. As far as I'm concerned that is where it belongs.

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:12 am A new name for this storm. The garbage disposal storm. As far as I'm concerned that is where it belongs.

I totally agree, bro.

Sounds better than a Michael "Landon" one. TWC and their fluffy winter storm names.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:09 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:06 am 12z NAM is running. At hour 33 now.

It looks out to lunch already…540 line halfway into Michigan, pushing ice line into Canada with a 988 low to the North… I’m not buying it.

Definitely another warm run it looks like. Would be an ideal situation for us as that would spare us from crippling ice. So far the NAM is on it's own.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:13 am

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:12 am A new name for this storm. The garbage disposal storm. As far as I'm concerned that is where it belongs.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:14 am

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:12 am A new name for this storm. The garbage disposal storm. As far as I'm concerned that is where it belongs.

I totally agree, bro.

Sounds better than a Michael "Landon" one. TWC and their fluffy winter storm names.

Out to hour 60. One thing I'm noticing is that this run is slightly colder than 00z.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:26 am Out to hour 60. One thing I'm noticing is that this run is slightly colder than 00z.

I think it's further south.

Low is weaker

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:32 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:26 am Out to hour 60. One thing I'm noticing is that this run is slightly colder than 00z.

I think it's further south.

I agree so far it looks a bit more south and colder.

You are correct guys. We'll see in the next few frames how that'll translate for us. Probably going to be an icier run.

Yikes. Changing to freezing rain around 10am Thu across the metro.

Hopefully it's not just a wobble but a trend south. We are very interested to see the GFS after that crazy 6z run!

12z Thursday already changeover to FRZ rain at DAY while the earlier run still had rain.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:36 am You are correct guys. We'll see in the next few frames how that'll translate for us. Probably going to be an icier run.

15z Thurs has ice into HamCo. Low track looks further South.