Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 10:36 am Good Morning and made it to SC yesterday. Cold and quite windy down here but got use to that back home. Will try and look at all the posts and do a little digging myself today.

Glad you made it safely Tim! Even though our weather is quiet now, the future is giving us plenty to talk about.

Hey Les, we have plenty to talk about and several nice days ahead. Pattern change late next week but again how long does it stay around and are we talking about any snow. I still believe the models are correct about late next week but I believe the cold is quick in and quick out and we head back towards normal until the last week or so of November. One reason I say this is because the troughs that models show tend to be pretty deep but they are focused more towards the east coast and imo we get the quick in and quick out pattern. Patterns can take time to form and sometimes you get these hints at what a pattern may look like down the road but it is still rather early in the late fall/early winter season and that is why I am going later in November into early December to see a more pronounced longer staying pattern. Many times snow cover will help and though we may see some in the upper plains its not widespread and the central and southern plains will get even more of a glancing blow than us.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:51 pm Hey Les, we have plenty to talk about and several nice days ahead. Pattern change late next week but again how long does it stay around and are we talking about any snow. I still believe the models are correct about late next week but I believe the cold is quick in and quick out and we head back towards normal until the last week or so of November. One reason I say this is because the troughs that models show tend to be pretty deep but they are focused more towards the east coast and imo we get the quick in and quick out pattern. Patterns can take time to form and sometimes you get these hints at what a pattern may look like down the road but it is still rather early in the late fall/early winter season and that is why I am going later in November into early December to see a more pronounced longer staying pattern. Many times snow cover will help and though we may see some in the upper plains its not widespread and the central and southern plains will get even more of a glancing blow than us.

It'll be interesting though to see if the GFS showing big highs in that 1040-1050 MB range in the longer term are correct or not. Typically, we like seeing that to drive the cold in here for snow storms to work with. I like seeing the temp gradient setting up as well. We just have to hope that we're on the correct side of the boundary. I agree with you that the cold is in and out for next weekend, but after the 18th or so, give or take, it really does look to be more sustainable not only per some of the OP models like the GFS but the GEFS and EPS are also on board with this.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:51 pm Hey Les, we have plenty to talk about and several nice days ahead. Pattern change late next week but again how long does it stay around and are we talking about any snow. I still believe the models are correct about late next week but I believe the cold is quick in and quick out and we head back towards normal until the last week or so of November. One reason I say this is because the troughs that models show tend to be pretty deep but they are focused more towards the east coast and imo we get the quick in and quick out pattern. Patterns can take time to form and sometimes you get these hints at what a pattern may look like down the road but it is still rather early in the late fall/early winter season and that is why I am going later in November into early December to see a more pronounced longer staying pattern. Many times snow cover will help and though we may see some in the upper plains its not widespread and the central and southern plains will get even more of a glancing blow than us.

It'll be interesting though to see if the GFS showing big highs in that 1040-1050 MB range in the longer term are correct or not. Typically, we like seeing that to drive the cold in here for snow storms to work with. I like seeing the temp gradient setting up as well. We just have to hope that we're on the correct side of the boundary. I agree with you that the cold is in and out for next weekend, but after the 18th or so, give or take, it really does look to be more sustainable not only per some of the OP models like the GFS but the GEFS and EPS are also on board with this.

You know me Les I love to argue with the models lol. Until my eyes show me something different I will stick with my thoughts and a better shot of a longer staying winter pattern the last week of November and it may be Thanksgiving or so for that to happen. I still want Canada to get cold and that has been very hard this fall and its been one step forward but two steps back and again I am trying to see a longer period of cold up there so we can get that cold to head this way.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:07 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:51 pm Hey Les, we have plenty to talk about and several nice days ahead. Pattern change late next week but again how long does it stay around and are we talking about any snow. I still believe the models are correct about late next week but I believe the cold is quick in and quick out and we head back towards normal until the last week or so of November. One reason I say this is because the troughs that models show tend to be pretty deep but they are focused more towards the east coast and imo we get the quick in and quick out pattern. Patterns can take time to form and sometimes you get these hints at what a pattern may look like down the road but it is still rather early in the late fall/early winter season and that is why I am going later in November into early December to see a more pronounced longer staying pattern. Many times snow cover will help and though we may see some in the upper plains its not widespread and the central and southern plains will get even more of a glancing blow than us.

It'll be interesting though to see if the GFS showing big highs in that 1040-1050 MB range in the longer term are correct or not. Typically, we like seeing that to drive the cold in here for snow storms to work with. I like seeing the temp gradient setting up as well. We just have to hope that we're on the correct side of the boundary. I agree with you that the cold is in and out for next weekend, but after the 18th or so, give or take, it really does look to be more sustainable not only per some of the OP models like the GFS but the GEFS and EPS are also on board with this.

You know me Les I love to argue with the models lol. Until my eyes show me something different I will stick with my thoughts and a better shot of a longer staying winter pattern the last week of November and it may be Thanksgiving or so for that to happen. I still want Canada to get cold and that has been very hard this fall and its been one step forward but two steps back and again I am trying to see a longer period of cold up there so we can get that cold to head this way.

I know Tim! And that's ok. You are very accurate in the long term when you do that. Keep using your instincts for sure. We are so far away from any of this still that anyone's guess is right. I just like what I have been seeing over the last 2 days. 12Z OP GFS backed off a bit but model swings are totally to be expected. I think in another week, the idea should become a lot more clearer.

Good Sunday all! DST is back and model info now comes in an hour earlier until 3/6/22. Sun rises are now in the 7:00 hour and sunsets begin now around 5:30pm. Love it! 28 here this morning CVG 31. Awesome weather (with increasing wind next week) with temps in the 60s thru Thurs. Rain moves in late Thurs and exits Friday with falling temps. We're back to highs in the low 409s by next weekend. Flakes or no flakes is then the question. GFS is more progressive now and foreign model continue the flake chance.

First half of Nov. is beautifully following the script foreseen quite awhile back. This week's above normal temps will get us closer to normal for the average over the first 15 days. And that 70 mark is still on the board for the NKentucky crew sometime this week . Also the southerly winds will pick up mid week, it'll depend on the strength and location of the low to determine if the winds are near the watch status. Enjoy a beautiful week ahead!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:47 am Good Sunday all! DST is back and model info now comes in an hour earlier until 3/6/22. Sun rises are now in the 7:00 hour and sunsets begin now around 5:30pm. Love it! 28 here this morning CVG 31. Awesome weather (with increasing wind next week) with temps in the 60s thru Thurs. Rain moves in late Thurs and exits Friday with falling temps. We're back to highs in the low 409s by next weekend. Flakes or no flakes is then the question. GFS is more progressive now and foreign model continue the flake chance.

Good Morning Les. Going to be a beautiful week down here with temps in the upper 60's and low 70's until about Friday. Mjo though weak is in phase 4 and that is another reason we are getting a milder spell. You made a great point yesterday and that is about snow in Canada and the northern plains. This is key in getting some decent cold and cold that lasts in December. If this happens the chances for a wonderful December go up quite a bit with how the pattern is setting up. La Nina is staying steady and I still believe it never gets out of the low end range. I know some models have shown it to hit moderate stage but I see no signs of that. Was reading Larry Cosgrove's weekly update from yesterday and he seem rather positive that winter is going to start out rather strong though his winter forecast was not that enticing for the winter. The Dec-Feb normal around here is to have a 3 way split which means 4 weeks of a really nice set up for snow and cold,4 weeks of back and forth where it can snow but not great in terms of the pattern and 4 weeks where we are just mild. That is a normal winter around here but we know the Ohio Valley is anything but normal. Going to spend a good amount of time this week looking over more data before I head to Hilton Head next Friday. First 2 days look so so but expecting a return to some decent weather down there with temps in the 70's during the day which sounds great.

Current snow cover:


5 Days ago:

Rocktober QBO reading at 30 MB is out. Still descending into moderately negative range.


June: -6.93
July: -13.17
Aug: -13.82
Sept: -16.56
Oct: -19.14

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:25 am

This makes perfect sense and at least agrees with my forecast lol.

Good morning all!

Currently 54 here in G'ville and progged to top out around 61 or 62.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:25 am

Just to add the mjo in phase 4-6 is fine if it stays rather weak and then moves out of those phases. We have seen at times where the mjo is stuck in those phases and the pattern change takes much longer than models showed. So far it looks like a very weak signal in those phases which tells me it should move out and the expected colder pattern for late Nov and Dec should be okay.

GFS says proceed with caution for week 3 with Back to back runs where it has totally lost the -EPO/+PNA

62 at CVG today, 63 here. Still have some tree trimming to finish up but got the worst one closest to the house done.

EPS still looking good and has plenty of cold in Canada.

Good Evening and beautiful day down here and got some yard work done though I have plenty at home to take care of and trimming trees is number one on the list. Big storm in China and been very cold and stormy over there the past month and Beijing getting in on the snow this time. Makes a difference when you have a snow pack to the north and can get a storm to your south to pull in colder air. We need that in Canada and lets hope we see this over the next few weeks.

Remember last week's heavy qpf event for Alaska? Noaa was forecasting 20-30 feet of snow in the Chugach mtns in 3 days. Here's a forecast for one area last week and the radar estimates that fell

Wow... truly amazing! For us locally for today... can CVG hit 70 or do we stay in the upper 60s? Today is the best chance. A few more clouds should hold us to the mid 60s Tues and Wed ahead of our next system. Patchy frost still possible this morning. CVG at 35 as of 6am. Haven't checked mine yet will edit this post shortly.

EDIT: Been holding at 37 here all night.

Holy cow. Lots of white gold up there.

Thanks Bgoney! I don't even dream that big! Would have been an incredible storm to watch!

I hit 68 today... wow! Same at CVG. It's really awesome out there, Going to enjoy it before it gets dark.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:10 pm I hit 68 today... wow! Same at CVG. It's really awesome out there, Going to enjoy it before it gets dark.

Good Afternoon Les and 73 down here. The wonderful Indian Summer weather before the damn breaks. Really nice cold front heading our way for the end of the week. Next weekend could have temps in the low 40's for highs both days. Could a snowflake or two enter the picture and possible but if you believe the CMC a wonderful clipper Sunday night and Monday. We talk about the CMC and it has problems but a couple of times every winter season it is ahead of the game. Is the solution have any merit and I must say yes and I have been one holding back on winter weather until the week of Thanksgiving. Saying that I still believe more in the scattered showers with a few snowflakes mixed in but no doubt something to watch over the next few days.

The clipper it is showing could be something that shows up quite often this winter season with a La Nina pattern and this can help in the snow totals this season. Bigger systems with this pattern not as easy to get as troughs dig but usually a little to far east. Still way to early to get down the exact pattern and yes it can and will change during the winter but you do get those 2-3 weeks where a pattern repeats and that is something we try and figure out before it happens.

Thank you Tim for checking the models. Work always has me hopping and yesterday and today I was trimming trees. Got that all done and I'm good for winter now! Just have to burn my massive pile once the wood dries out over the winter. Only thing left is to grind leaves as Mother Nature permits and that ought to do it for me on the outside.

Back to our weather and we've got two more nice days left before we get wet and the temps drop back to below avg levels. Looking like highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s by this weekend. GFS has pretty much lost the first flakes idea where the CMC and Euro show the chance still with that clipper that you mentioned Tim. As usual, we shall see. The pattern looks to be turning more active for the 2nd half of Nov and I suspect we will see shots of cold air as well. Accumulating snow remains to be seen as usual.