Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 8:49 am Good Morning Les and you have everything covered. We need the rain and a couple of inches would be nice. Temp wise we are 4 degrees above average and of course that will be higher after Saturday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 11:15 am Models are not in agreement either. 12Z HRRR and 12Z NAM are opposites of each other. The HRRR model weakens the early morning action quicker so we don't get much rain until later on in the day. This would increase the severe threat and give us more instability to work with. The NAM lingers the morning rain so we get less CAPE so that would reduce the severe threat for later on. It'll be a nowcast IMO guys. We will need to watch the action coming in from the west. How quick it weakens and moves out will determine whether or not we get hit later in the day. Heavy rain IMO is a given no matter which model is right.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 11:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 11:15 am Models are not in agreement either. 12Z HRRR and 12Z NAM are opposites of each other. The HRRR model weakens the early morning action quicker so we don't get much rain until later on in the day. This would increase the severe threat and give us more instability to work with. The NAM lingers the morning rain so we get less CAPE so that would reduce the severe threat for later on. It'll be a nowcast IMO guys. We will need to watch the action coming in from the west. How quick it weakens and moves out will determine whether or not we get hit later in the day. Heavy rain IMO is a given no matter which model is right.

Great Post again Les. So far I believe the Nam may be doing okay for Saturday. Reasoning is that time period between say 4a-8a there can be enough energy left from the squall line and yes that period tends to keep decent storms going longer. Will be fun to watch those models face off later today. I agree 100p/c heavy rains is going to be the biggest issue followed by winds and yes maybe straight line winds. Can never say no chance of a tornado when you have a squall line but I believe those chances are slim and then later Saturday again wind and rain seems the most likely problems and not sure if the tornado threat will be an issue at all.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:23 pm 18Z HRRR continues the theme of the 12Z run where the overnight action weakens considerably and we don't get much, if anything, then we await the newly developed action from the SW that rides up the river valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:26 pm SPC has taken away the slight risk for tomorrow, only a marginal one now. A rare high risk over the SE though. It is going to be a bad day tomorrow down there.


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Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:57 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:23 pm 18Z HRRR continues the theme of the 12Z run where the overnight action weakens considerably and we don't get much, if anything, then we await the newly developed action from the SW that rides up the river valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

I think that’s the way to go. Models have been hinting for some time that the Saturday morning rains would be on the lighter to none side for a good chunk of the region.