March 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and you have everything covered. We need the rain and a couple of inches would be nice. Temp wise we are 4 degrees above average and of course that will be higher after Saturday.

Thanks Tim! Too early with regards to precip , but for temps, March should go down as an above normal month IMO.

[tron777]

We are already 10 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time. 61 at CVG per the 10am reading.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

SPS from the boys due to the dry conditions and low humidity that we have had in place this week:

...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY...

A prolonged period without rainfall, winds gusting to 25-30 mph,
relative humidity as low as 35%, and unseasonably warm
temperatures have increased the threat of wildfires today.
Grasses and leaf litter are very receptive to fire. If fire is
introduced, ignition is likely and fire spread will be quick.

Be aware of the potential for grass and brush fires that may
quickly spread today. Call 911 if you see unattended fire. Do not
burn today.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

68 with a dew of 50 at CVG of 11am. We need those dews to continue rising for those that want some decent storms. Tomorrow will be interesting though. The earlier the morning storms leave town the better for those that want to see severe wx. If the storms are later in arriving or linger longer then that would reduce the threat for later on Saturday. It's a nowcast in my opinion as far as that goes. We'll need to keep an eye on those MO and ILL storms tonight to see how quickly they weaken as they arrive here in the wee hours or early Sat morning.

[tron777]

Models are not in agreement either. 12Z HRRR and 12Z NAM are opposites of each other. The HRRR model weakens the early morning action quicker so we don't get much rain until later on in the day. This would increase the severe threat and give us more instability to work with. The NAM lingers the morning rain so we get less CAPE so that would reduce the severe threat for later on. It'll be a nowcast IMO guys. We will need to watch the action coming in from the west. How quick it weakens and moves out will determine whether or not we get hit later in the day. Heavy rain IMO is a given no matter which model is right.

[tpweather]

Models are not in agreement either. 12Z HRRR and 12Z NAM are opposites of each other. The HRRR model weakens the early morning action quicker so we don't get much rain until later on in the day. This would increase the severe threat and give us more instability to work with. The NAM lingers the morning rain so we get less CAPE so that would reduce the severe threat for later on. It'll be a nowcast IMO guys. We will need to watch the action coming in from the west. How quick it weakens and moves out will determine whether or not we get hit later in the day. Heavy rain IMO is a given no matter which model is right.

Great Post again Les. So far I believe the Nam may be doing okay for Saturday. Reasoning is that time period between say 4a-8a there can be enough energy left from the squall line and yes that period tends to keep decent storms going longer. Will be fun to watch those models face off later today. I agree 100p/c heavy rains is going to be the biggest issue followed by winds and yes maybe straight line winds. Can never say no chance of a tornado when you have a squall line but I believe those chances are slim and then later Saturday again wind and rain seems the most likely problems and not sure if the tornado threat will be an issue at all.

[tron777]

Models are not in agreement either. 12Z HRRR and 12Z NAM are opposites of each other. The HRRR model weakens the early morning action quicker so we don't get much rain until later on in the day. This would increase the severe threat and give us more instability to work with. The NAM lingers the morning rain so we get less CAPE so that would reduce the severe threat for later on. It'll be a nowcast IMO guys. We will need to watch the action coming in from the west. How quick it weakens and moves out will determine whether or not we get hit later in the day. Heavy rain IMO is a given no matter which model is right.

Great Post again Les. So far I believe the Nam may be doing okay for Saturday. Reasoning is that time period between say 4a-8a there can be enough energy left from the squall line and yes that period tends to keep decent storms going longer. Will be fun to watch those models face off later today. I agree 100p/c heavy rains is going to be the biggest issue followed by winds and yes maybe straight line winds. Can never say no chance of a tornado when you have a squall line but I believe those chances are slim and then later Saturday again wind and rain seems the most likely problems and not sure if the tornado threat will be an issue at all.

Agreed Tim... the severe wx threat for later Saturday is going to be conditional with regards to what happens tomorrow morning. We can look at all the models we want, which we will, but I think that this is pretty straight forward. We don't have a lot of time between waves of clouds / rain so something like the HRRR has to come true for us to get severe wx late Saturday. Otherwise we'll see gradient winds to 45 mph and heavy rains only.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is really going crazy giving CVG 2.84" of rain for the event total.

[tron777]

BTW... in the extended... the GFS and sometimes on the GEFS, has been consistent in showing some light snow chances in the 20-22nd window. Looking like a strong front with rain ending as flurries then a possible quick little follow up wave (almost like a clipper) right on its heals. On this run there is even a third chance after that. 12Z Canada is a little different but overall in support of a colder pattern for a few days before we warm up again.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3318.jpeg

[tron777]

77 at CVG as of 2pm. Seeing some more clouds though which could make 80 tougher to achieve.

[tron777]

Euro is coming in with about an inch and a quarter for CVG, In the extended range, the Euro is not agreeing with the more wintry GFS. Shocker I know. Probably the same ole, same ole GFS BS anyway.

[tron777]

77 might be it, dropped to 75 as of 3pm at CVG.

[tron777]

A watch box is likely to be issued shortly over Western MO. This will be the beginnings of tonight's outbreak and whatever leftovers we get in the morning.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0170.html

[tron777]

18Z HRRR continues the theme of the 12Z run where the overnight action weakens considerably and we don't get much, if anything, then we await the newly developed action from the SW that rides up the river valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

[tron777]

T-storm Watch box now out for Western MO until 7pm CDT.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0030.html

[tron777]

SPC has taken away the slight risk for tomorrow, only a marginal one now. A rare high risk over the SE though. It is going to be a bad day tomorrow down there.

day2otlk_1730.gif

[Bgoney]

18Z HRRR continues the theme of the 12Z run where the overnight action weakens considerably and we don't get much, if anything, then we await the newly developed action from the SW that rides up the river valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

I think that’s the way to go. Models have been hinting for some time that the Saturday morning rains would be on the lighter to none side for a good chunk of the region.

[MVWxObserver]

SPC has taken away the slight risk for tomorrow, only a marginal one now. A rare high risk over the SE though. It is going to be a bad day tomorrow down there.


day2otlk_1730.gif

Yes, today our relatives in St. Charles / O'Fallon, MO are under a Moderate risk, Bro. Then tomorrow my nephew / his wife, his wife's folks e.g. are in an Enhanced risk in Columbia and Nashville, TN. Prayers and thoughts with all and so many others across the miles of real estate in the severe risk areas this weekend.

[tron777]

18Z HRRR continues the theme of the 12Z run where the overnight action weakens considerably and we don't get much, if anything, then we await the newly developed action from the SW that rides up the river valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

I think that’s the way to go. Models have been hinting for some time that the Saturday morning rains would be on the lighter to none side for a good chunk of the region.

18Z NAM is trending in this direction now too.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 75 here in G'ville and 77 in DAY.

My Dad, myself and a friend of ours played a first game of the season of Bocce ball at our community ball court this morning. Congrats to our friend Chip as he won! Was some very nice renewed practice and looking forward to this year's spring and fall Bocce league tournament rounds!

[tpweather]

Nice explosion of storm in the Missouri Valley as expected. I went with a 1/4 inch for Saturday morning and though it may rain hard for a period its moving fast so maybe you get 1 hour or two if your lucky. Saturday night no doubt looks like a heavy rain event and of course some wind. Another 1-2 inches seems likely for most areas as we get an extended period of rainfall coming down at a moderate rate and once in awhile heavy rate. Severe chances are not zero but imo besides maybe straight line winds not seeing really any signs for tornado's in our area.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely

Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely