Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning. A nice 35 degrees this morning and like Les mentioned some frost on the roof tops but I see no frost on the grass. A warm front will track through here later Wednesday but I am not expecting much locally in terms of rainfall and most likely around .010 and some folks may not get any rain. Further north some totals will be heavier as the warm front slows and north of I-70 some folks can get .50 or even greater.

Thursday will see temps shoot up and upper 70's look likely. Friday will be a day of change as a rather potent low pressure pushes through the area later in the day. That is when I could see some thunderstorms later in the day. Still believe rain totals below .50 unless you get caught in a heavier thunderstorm. Turn much cooler and the weekend looks rather gloomy and I believe more clouds will be around compared to last weekend and temps may not get to 60 all weekend with a few wraparound showers.

Great post Tim and a good looking forecast too. Not much too add other then this same pattern continuing for a while with a ridge over the West and a trough over the East. Thanks to the blocking up top, we keep getting these slow moving upper lows. Let's see if we can keep that theme going in a couple more months from now.

Upper 50s to low 60s across the region this afternoon. Looking at the mid 60s for most locations. Patchy frost again tonight then we moderate. I think most folks will stay dry until late Fri into early Sat. The warm frontal passage tomorrow doesn't look to provide much in the way of rainfall.

For the region the past 6 months of rainfall deficit is fairly significant for the Midwest/OV s as this graph shows

CVG is about 5" down. That seems pretty accurate to me. Poor LUK...

No 12Z Euro model data as of yet... At least we're not tracking a snow storm!

Just wanted to double check the graphs above and first one was Lunken Airport and the official total of rainfall this year is 26.8 and the average 35.01 so 8.21 inches for the year and the graph is for last 6 months which means they were about 3 inches above normal for the early part of the year. Just wanted to make folks knew that the 11 inches or so they show below normal is not for the year

Just wanted to add CVG and it shows around 5 inches for the past 6 months but only 2.5 inches for the year which means the early part of the year we were 2.5 inches above normal.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:50 pm Just wanted to double check the graphs above and first one was Lunken Airport and the official total of rainfall this year is 26.8 and the average 35.01 so 8.21 inches for the year and the graph is for last 6 months which means they were about 3 inches above normal for the early part of the year. Just wanted to make folks knew that the 11 inches or so they show below normal is not for the year

Just wanted to add CVG and it shows around 5 inches for the past 6 months but only 2.5 inches for the year which means the early part of the year we were 2.5 inches above normal.

What the graph is showing us IMO is basically what we need rainfall wise right now to get out of the drought. Yes from a yearly perspective those numbers are not as much below normal but over the last 6 months, I think the graph shows very well a good est. of how much rain we truly do need. A good 5-8" across the region depending on location is needed to get out of the drought.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:59 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:50 pm Just wanted to double check the graphs above and first one was Lunken Airport and the official total of rainfall this year is 26.8 and the average 35.01 so 8.21 inches for the year and the graph is for last 6 months which means they were about 3 inches above normal for the early part of the year. Just wanted to make folks knew that the 11 inches or so they show below normal is not for the year

Just wanted to add CVG and it shows around 5 inches for the past 6 months but only 2.5 inches for the year which means the early part of the year we were 2.5 inches above normal.

What the graph is showing us IMO is basically what we need rainfall wise right now to get out of the drought. Yes from a yearly perspective those numbers are not as much below normal but over the last 6 months, I think the graph shows very well a good est. of how much rain we truly do need. A good 5-8" across the region depending on location is needed to get out of the drought.

I agree Les but some folks may look at that and believe Lunken is a little over 11 inches for the year but the total is a little over 8. The equation for how much we need is trickier imo because getting a thunderstorm in the summer can bring a quick 1-2 inches in one hour and very little soaks in but getting 1-2 inches this time of year where we get that amount over a 24 hour period is much different. Folks that deal with soil moisture will know much better than any equation and I can only tell by how quickly the soil drys out and again depending where you take the soil sample will make a difference.

Funny we have these discussions in the winter on how much snow fell. Sometimes the melted snow can be say 0.30 inches but snow that actually accumulated on the ground was only 1 inch with temps and ground temps warmer and a lot melted.

So I believe the graph is nice to have and gives you an ideal how dry the region has been but again localized areas like myself this year was a good 1-2 inches above CVG and last year I was probably 2-3 inches below CVG.

It's all good Tim! It's healthy to have these discussions. It adds value to our forum.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:59 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:50 pm Just wanted to double check the graphs above and first one was Lunken Airport and the official total of rainfall this year is 26.8 and the average 35.01 so 8.21 inches for the year and the graph is for last 6 months which means they were about 3 inches above normal for the early part of the year. Just wanted to make folks knew that the 11 inches or so they show below normal is not for the year

Just wanted to add CVG and it shows around 5 inches for the past 6 months but only 2.5 inches for the year which means the early part of the year we were 2.5 inches above normal.

What the graph is showing us IMO is basically what we need rainfall wise right now to get out of the drought. Yes from a yearly perspective those numbers are not as much below normal but over the last 6 months, I think the graph shows very well a good est. of how much rain we truly do need. A good 5-8" across the region depending on location is needed to get out of the drought.

Lol Tim , you’re killing me smallz, if you want to insist on the yearly total as a more “fair “ degree on how dry it’s been , then an even more fair approach to how dry it’s been is to take it back 12 months to the actual start of what has been a significant dry period for our area. The soil profile has never really recovered or caught up so to speak for 12 months and counting that’s a pretty long dry spell for any area east of the Mississippi

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 3:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:59 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:50 pm Just wanted to double check the graphs above and first one was Lunken Airport and the official total of rainfall this year is 26.8 and the average 35.01 so 8.21 inches for the year and the graph is for last 6 months which means they were about 3 inches above normal for the early part of the year. Just wanted to make folks knew that the 11 inches or so they show below normal is not for the year

Just wanted to add CVG and it shows around 5 inches for the past 6 months but only 2.5 inches for the year which means the early part of the year we were 2.5 inches above normal.

What the graph is showing us IMO is basically what we need rainfall wise right now to get out of the drought. Yes from a yearly perspective those numbers are not as much below normal but over the last 6 months, I think the graph shows very well a good est. of how much rain we truly do need. A good 5-8" across the region depending on location is needed to get out of the drought.

Lol Tim , you’re killing me smallz, if you want to insist on the yearly total as a more “fair “ degree on how dry it’s been , then an even more fair approach to how dry it’s been is to take it back 12 months to the actual start of what has been a significant dry period for our area. The soil profile has never really recovered or caught up so to speak for 12 months and counting that’s a pretty long dry spell for any area east of the Mississippi



IMG_0672.jpeg

Going back a year 8" seems about right to get out of the drought. 5" we have added on if you will over the last 6 months. I hope I am interpreting these graphics correctly.

That sounds about right to me . I was figuring for a good chunk of the region to get the soil profile saturated to 30-36” deep , 5 to as much as 8” needed. For a smaller percentage of backyards around 3-5”

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 4:51 pm That sounds about right to me . I was figuring for a good chunk of the region to get the soil profile saturated to 30-36” deep , 5 to as much as 8” needed. For a smaller percentage of backyards around 3-5”

Good deal, thank you!

12Z Euro wants to give CVG up to a 1/2" Fri night. Don't I wish...

Frost Advisory issued for tonight for everyone in our N Cincy Burb counties on northward. Metro on south is covered by a special weather statement mentioning patchy frost. Expecting tomorrow morning to be similar to what we saw this morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 4:52 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 4:51 pm That sounds about right to me . I was figuring for a good chunk of the region to get the soil profile saturated to 30-36” deep , 5 to as much as 8” needed. For a smaller percentage of backyards around 3-5”

Good deal, thank you!

12Z Euro wants to give CVG up to a 1/2" Fri night. Don't I wish...

If we could somehow achieve our normals the next 3 months, it would go a long ways in recovery. That’s 10ish inches . Good luck

I wanted to look deeper into rainfall and just looked at CVG. The last year that we were below normal was 2012 and that was by about 10p/c. So this year is dry its just a short term drought. If we start to see this happen several years in a row or even 3 out 5 then maybe a new trend. Since 2013 all the years were above normal and if you average them out its probably somewhere in the 10p/c area. Sure we have a year like 2011 when we were 80 p/c above normal but those are few and far between. What will happen is the normal rainfall amounts will go up because of the last 10 years or so and then we need to look at what that new total may be. I believe they do averages over 30year periods so the next period they will adjust is 2001-2030. This is a fair sample size plus you are getting a more recent climate output. Over the next few weeks I will try and pick out more cities in the USA and see if certain locations have got much drier or even wetter. Of course there are many other factors like when did the rain happen and is more in the winter than previous cycles or the amount of days increase or decrease that rain fell. I believe Mother Nature is always trying to balance out things and sometimes she goes a little haywire like 2011 but normally she balances things fairly even or should I say what is a normal pattern for a certain area. Southern California is different than Cincinnati which is different than Miami. Getting 42 inches in Cincinnati is normal but that would be extreme flooding in Southern California and a drought year in Miami.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 4:52 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 4:51 pm That sounds about right to me . I was figuring for a good chunk of the region to get the soil profile saturated to 30-36” deep , 5 to as much as 8” needed. For a smaller percentage of backyards around 3-5”

Good deal, thank you!

12Z Euro wants to give CVG up to a 1/2" Fri night. Don't I wish...

I am not throwing that amount out yet because its a pretty dynamic system but will the timing be a problem. Not sure its a big severe output but I can see some thundershowers pop up. The Euro may just hit a time on its models where CVG was getting hit the hardest and say Indy not so much. Look at the models over the next few days to see if a trend is showing higher or lower rain amounts . These system without much help from the GOM a 0.25-0.50 is usually a safe forecast this far out. Like always some folks more and some less.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 6:59 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 4:52 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 4:51 pm That sounds about right to me . I was figuring for a good chunk of the region to get the soil profile saturated to 30-36” deep , 5 to as much as 8” needed. For a smaller percentage of backyards around 3-5”

Good deal, thank you!

12Z Euro wants to give CVG up to a 1/2" Fri night. Don't I wish...

I am not throwing that amount out yet because its a pretty dynamic system but will the timing be a problem. Not sure its a big severe output but I can see some thundershowers pop up. The Euro may just hit a time on its models where CVG was getting hit the hardest and say Indy not so much. Look at the models over the next few days to see if a trend is showing higher or lower rain amounts . These system without much help from the GOM a 0.25-0.50 is usually a safe forecast this far out. Like always some folks more and some less.

I would not rule out a rumble of thunder or a flash of lightning, a gusty wind to 35, etc. But I am not excepting any severe wx with this next system. The timing is poor. No CAPE. The shear is looking good. Probably another either side of 0.25 to 0.35" kind of deal again. The STJ not getting involved may pay dividends down the road for cold and snow lovers. We'll see. If the polar jet remains dominant, we could see an interesting winter. Not sure how strong the STJ gets as of yet. For now, polar jet rules.

October update for arctic sea ice not so scary

HAPPY 61ST BIRTHDAY PIANOMAN!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

It's nine o'clock on a Saturday
The regular crowd shuffles in
There's an old man sittin' next to me
Makin' love to his tonic and gin

He says, "Son can you play me a memory?
I'm not really sure how it goes
But it's sad and it's sweet and I knew it complete
When I wore a younger man's clothes"

La, la-la, di-di-da
La-la di-di-da da-dum

Sing us a song, you're the piano man
Sing us a song tonight
Well, we're all in the mood for a melody
And you've got us feelin' alright

Now John at the bar is a friend of mine
He gets me my drinks for free
And he's quick with a joke, or to light up your smoke
But there's some place that he'd rather be

He says, "Bill, I believe this is killing me"
As a smile ran away from his face
"Well, I'm sure that I could be a movie star
If I could get out of this place"

Oh, la, la-la, di-di-da
La-la di-di-da da-dum

Now Paul is a real estate novelist
Who never had time for a wife
And he's talkin' with Davy, who's still in the navy
And probably will be for life

And the waitress is practicing politics
As the businessmen slowly get stoned
Yes, they're sharing a drink they call loneliness
But it's better than drinkin' alone

Sing us the song, you're the piano man
Sing us a song tonight
Well, we're all in the mood for a melody
And you've got us feelin' alright

It's a pretty good crowd for a Saturday
And the manager gives me a smile
'Cause he knows that it's me they've been comin' to see
To forget about life for a while

And the piano, it sounds like a carnival
And the microphone smells like a beer
And they sit at the bar and put bread in my jar
And say man what are you doin' here?

Oh, la, la-la, di-di-da
La-la di-di-da da-dum

Sing us the song, you're the piano man
Sing us a song tonight
Well, we're all in the mood for a melody
And you've got us feelin' alright

Good Morning and a tad warmer this morning and so far down to 38. A nice day in store though some clouds increase with the warm front. Could we get a shower and yes but most will be dry. Thursday looks downright warm with temp in the upper 70's. Friday an increase in clouds with rain chances late at night. Temps should be held down somewhat because of clouds so my guess mid-70's at best . Weekend looks and will feel like fall with temps mainly in the 50's during the day and 40's at night with plenty of clouds and showers to pop us here and there. Frost and again most likely will occur next Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

36 here this morning. I had 35 yesterday. I concur with Tim's above forecast.

Happy Birthday Pianoman! Hope you have a great day today!!!