Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:48 am Radar shows the WAA precip way out ahead of the low blossoming over TX, OK, starting to get into LA and AR as well.

That is something I noticed this morning and seems the precip is coming in a little quicker at the moment. Of course that can change once we get the surface low to develop and then see where the precip line is located.

I just need an inch or so by 5am and I am gold LOL (Snow Day)

12Z NAM coming in with the same story. For CVG, I'd guess a 3-4 hour period of snow and then mixing to rain fairly quickly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:01 am 12Z NAM coming in with the same story. For CVG, I'd guess a 3-4 hour period of snow and then mixing to rain fairly quickly.

What about Middletown? Can you give me your thoughts on that as of now?

Thanks, Les!

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:27 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:01 am 12Z NAM coming in with the same story. For CVG, I'd guess a 3-4 hour period of snow and then mixing to rain fairly quickly.

What about Middletown? Can you give me your thoughts on that as of now?

Thanks, Les!

You will stay snow a little longer of course since you are further north. If things break right, you could certainly pick up 3-4" before the changeover.

Models and one item they have a hard time with is sleet. Many times it seems about 6 hours of so before the sleet happens models pick up on it. That is why sometimes snowfall amounts are too high in system like this. My gut is telling me that the first 6 hours of the system is very tricky and with the WAA and Dynamic cooling going on that we go from rain for a short period and then turn to a period of snow and then sleet before we change to rain. Getting closer to making this my forecast and it would be 1-3 inches of snow for most locally with sleet involved. These sleet bands are usually narrow in nature and tend to last only an hour or so. Heading toward Dayton and you would have a much longer time in the winter weather zone so snowfall should be more in the 3-6 inch range and of course Indy has a great chance of being the winner with 5-8 inches and some local areas near Indy getting closer to 10 inches. Heading south towards Louisville and they may have the most hours with sleet and probably less than 1 inch snow and Lexington could end up with mainly rain. Columbus to me look more like a 2-4 inch range but changing to rain. This is only for the storm system through 6pm Wednesday as some left over snow showers could add a little to the snow totals by Friday but mostly in the 1/2 to 1 inch range. Okay this is my forecast and confident yes but overly confident and that answer is no.

I think that's a nice forecast Tim for the entire region. Very nicely stated and explained. For Thurs, we are in total agreement for the snow showers with a disturbance moving thru to help create the lift needed. As long as temps stay at 32 or below, up to 1" shouldn't be a problem for Thurs.

So this is just a model snapshot in time (12z NAM), and not etched in stone, but I like to use the snow depth maps to more accurately pinpoint how much we will see on the ground. For front end thump later tonight into tomorrow: it is showing the heaviest band from northern Butler County through Dayton metro into the NW burbs of Columbus. Also note the sharp SE cutoff as this will likely be where the mixing issues are most likely. Again - not a final prediction but just what one model is showing.

NOTE: this also includes the inch or two currently on the ground.

BG's SnowTalk! video already in progress...

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:04 am No changes for me from 24 hrs ago. A 4-6hr period of moderate to heavy precip in the predawn hours tomorrow. Ranges include 1-3" near the river and 2-5" zone north of there and a 3-6" zone NW of there






thump3.PNG

I like this map too - my only change would be a sharper SE cutoff ala NAM/HRRR (sorry Matt)!

I know, I feel bad about always giving Matt an inch or Les

Up to 34 degrees with a mostly sunny sky.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:03 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:04 am No changes for me from 24 hrs ago. A 4-6hr period of moderate to heavy precip in the predawn hours tomorrow. Ranges include 1-3" near the river and 2-5" zone north of there and a 3-6" zone NW of there






thump3.PNG

I like this map too - my only change would be a sharper SE cutoff ala NAM/HRRR (sorry Matt)!

I know, I feel bad about always giving Matt an inch or Les

Don't feel bad - just get me an inch or so between 4am and 5am and I am happy....no one dislikes a Snow Day and thats all it takes out here. LOL

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:29 am 12Z HRRR is coming in and it is showing the best front end snows NW of the I-71 corridor which makes sense as the low rolls right up the river and into Tri-state. It even shows mixing issues for a time at IND.

I want the snow just as much as anyone, but after years of lurking around, I have developed a theory that comes true most of the time. When we have one of those systems where the warm air has a chance of mixing in, THE WARM AIR ALWAYS WINS. Hope I am wrong, but reading all the posts this morning, I get the feeling we are heading for sloppy rain snow mix.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:15 am Don't feel bad - just get me an inch or so between 4am and 5am and I am happy....no one dislikes a Snow Day and thats all it takes out here. LOL

You can have an inch or two of my snow! I won't complain a bit!

heybert00 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:21 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:29 am 12Z HRRR is coming in and it is showing the best front end snows NW of the I-71 corridor which makes sense as the low rolls right up the river and into Tri-state. It even shows mixing issues for a time at IND.

I want the snow just as much as anyone, but after years of lurking around, I have developed a theory that comes true most of the time. When we have one of those systems where the warm air has a chance of mixing in, THE WARM AIR ALWAYS WINS. Hope I am wrong, but reading all the posts this morning, I get the feeling we are heading for sloppy rain snow mix.

Definitely a concern for sure. Great post and that is exactly why my forecast and excitement is tempered a bit.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:22 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:15 am Don't feel bad - just get me an inch or so between 4am and 5am and I am happy....no one dislikes a Snow Day and thats all it takes out here. LOL

You can have an inch or two of my snow! I won't complain a bit!

Same here!

31 degrees with sunny skies in N Butler Co

12Z RGEM's low track is a 998 MB low thru NKY on its way to Cleveland. Seeing some mixing issues for our Dayton posters for sure. The low is just too strong in this case and that's part of the issue along with the low track itself. No changes from my 1-3" call for CVG and I like 2-4" for Dayton and probably back to 1-3" for Columbus, Amounts quickly ramp up though NW of this line so if we have any posters more north and especially NW, you are going to do the best with this system and can easily achieve 4-6" depending on your location.

12Z GFS tracks the low just West of Cincy thru our SE Indiana counties on up towards Lake Erie so you're going to run into the same sort of thing.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:58 am 12Z RGEM's low track is a 998 MB low thru NKY on its way to Cleveland. Seeing some mixing issues for our Dayton posters for sure. The low is just too strong in this case and that's part of the issue along with the low track itself. No changes from my 1-3" call for CVG and I like 2-4" for Dayton and probably back to 1-3" for Columbus, Amounts quickly ramp up though NW of this line so if we have any posters more north and especially NW, you are going to do the best with this system and can easily achieve 4-6" depending on your location.

12Z GFS tracks the low just West of Cincy thru our SE Indiana counties on up towards Lake Erie so you're going to run into the same sort of thing.

Gfs and CMC are about 50 miles apart with this system. Will this make a difference and if the CMC is correct the forecast would need to be updated for a touch more snow. Keeping my forecast the same as well Les but I still have one eye opened at all times

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:04 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:58 am 12Z RGEM's low track is a 998 MB low thru NKY on its way to Cleveland. Seeing some mixing issues for our Dayton posters for sure. The low is just too strong in this case and that's part of the issue along with the low track itself. No changes from my 1-3" call for CVG and I like 2-4" for Dayton and probably back to 1-3" for Columbus, Amounts quickly ramp up though NW of this line so if we have any posters more north and especially NW, you are going to do the best with this system and can easily achieve 4-6" depending on your location.

12Z GFS tracks the low just West of Cincy thru our SE Indiana counties on up towards Lake Erie so you're going to run into the same sort of thing.

Gfs and CMC are about 50 miles apart with this system. Will this make a difference and if the CMC is correct the forecast would need to be updated for a touch more snow. Keeping my forecast the same as well Les but I still have one eye opened at all times

I still see mixing issues even on the Canadian, but if it is right we would certainly be in the snow a bit longer which would add a couple of inches on to the current forecast. Go Team Canada!

I'm also watching every HRRR run today!

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:11 am I'm also watching every HRRR run today!

That model was no doubt the best this past weekend

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:11 am I'm also watching every HRRR run today!

Glad you're here Byron! Hope all is well Bro! The HRRR has corrected itself though to match more of the other models IMO.

Been busy at work and have not read or watched tv too much just a quick question how far North and West for bigger accumulations as I am in southern Franklin County in Indiana just above Batesville? Thanks in advance

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:17 am

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:11 am I'm also watching every HRRR run today!

Glad you're here Byron! Hope all is well Bro! The HRRR has corrected itself though to match more of the other models IMO.

Definitely, compared to yesterday. Yea, sorry I haven't been posting much. Still lurkin' from time to time. I'll pick up my posting game! Hope everyone is doing excellent!