Absolute Vorticity

18Z GFS text data for the wintry side on Thurs / Fri.

18Z Euro ending 8am Thursday - Snow

18z Euro same Timeframe - Ice

Welcome back to the Tri-state, Casie!

Welcome back, Brian!

This next system really does the butterfly dance in one's stomach!

Currently 19 here in Greenville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:21 pm 18Z Euro ending 8am Thursday - Snow


Euro18Z.png

I need that to be a little further south! Lol

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:59 pm Welcome back to the Tri-state, Casie!

Welcome back, Brian!

This next system really does the butterfly dance in one's stomach!

Currently 19 here in Greenville.

Thanks! Nice to be back!

The nam goes out to 8am Thursday. Showing rain for most of us.

these threads are painful to read. i know because i have missed out all year so far on a good winter storm first it was a miss to the north then the south then to the west last week and now to the east this weekend, just goes to show you how hard and rare it is to get a good snow storm. but after this upcoming week of higher temps and rain we go back into the feeezer next weekend and will have a couple more chances in February

WOW, rise and shine, the 6z GFS just NAM'd the crap out of CVGland, in every which way , possible flooding rains, major icing to major snows, followed by double digit negative temps........ OH MY!! Still time for changes, but start doing what you need to do to be prepared, at least one of these is going to occur , probably two, and possibly three!!!!! and an outside chance of all 4!!!!! just sayin

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:08 am WOW, rise and shine, the 6z GFS just NAM'd the crap out of CVGland, in every which way , possible flooding rains, major icing to major snows, followed by double digit negative temps........ OH MY!! Still time for changes, but start doing what you need to do to be prepared, at least one of these is going to occur , probably two, and possibly three!!!!! and an outside chance of all 4!!!!! just sayin

Oh wow that was quite a run!

NAM and Euro are way warmer then the colder GFS solution. Big difference between ice Thurs morning on the GFS or waiting until the afternoon like the Euro. CMC changes us over around midday then gets very icy and nasty after that.

6Z Euro coming in a bit south from 0Z. Going by the CVG text data, instead of later in the afternoon for the change over, I'd say midday or so now on Thursday.

AFD from the boys:

The focus of the long term discussion will be the major winter
storm poised to impact the OH Vly in the Wednesday night through
Thursday night time frame, with rain expected to be encroaching
upon NW parts of the ILN FA through Tuesday night.

As the large-scale pattern continues to amplify going into the
middle of the week, a more significant period of active weather
is almost certain to develop across the Ohio Valley. There
continues to be general agreement in the large-scale features
across the GFS/ECMWF/CMC runs and their ensemble counterparts.
The deepening trough upstream of the region will gradually move
east, providing broad support for lift in the right entrance
region of an upper jet, as moisture streams into the region from
the south. At the surface, a sharp frontal zone is expected to
develop, between high pressure off the southeast coast and an
even stronger high moving south from the Canadian Prairie
provinces. The end result will be a lengthy period of precip
that will overspread a large swath of the region, with a surface
front somewhere in the vicinity underneath the upper support.
Although there are some timing differences amongst the models,
for the ILN CWA, right now the event looks most likely to occur
Wednesday evening through Thursday night (with rain for most, if
not all, of the ILN FA during the day Wednesday).

There is little doubt that this overall pattern, regardless of
how exactly it unfolds, will be conducive to significant
accumulations of precip across an expansive area. This
meteorological setup is one that /will/ support an array of
hazardous weather across the OH Vly and Midwest -- with high
confidence in a lengthy period of precip, but lower confidence
in particular locations for different ptypes and amounts. What
should be noted is that this overall setup, from a pattern
recognition standpoint (with continued support from CIPS Analog
guidance) is one that can support moderate to heavy swaths of
rain, freezing rain / ice, and snow, depending on the exact
location. While we would be fortunate to see unanimous agreement
amongst the longer-range guidance this far out regarding the
placement of the frontal boundary at each given time step, as
well as the corresponding layering of thermal fields aloft that
will accompany such a set up, small variations in these very
sensitive fields will yield /drastically/ different weather and
impacts for any one location, especially as we progress deeper
into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Certainly at this
juncture, the /trends/ in the guidance seem to be just as
important as actually attempting to determine where exactly the
line between heavy snow, mixed wintry precip/ice, and heavy rain
will be. And there has been a subtle NW trend with the guidance
as a whole, especially during the day on Thursday, which is not
all surprising given past experiences with these types of
setups. The NW shift in the ptype swaths suggest a slightly
stronger system, with a more well-defined sfc low which would
act to stunt the southward progression of the WSW-ENE oriented
frontal boundary for perhaps as many as 6-8 hours, during the
daytime on Thursday when there is the expectation for a period
of widespread moderate to heavy precip occurring across most of
the area. While it would be imprudent to talk specifically about
ptypes on a county-level basis at this juncture, our fcst will
always attempt to create the most likely solution, which at this
point suggests the highest probabilities for significant snow
to be in WC OH, with a WSW-ENE oriented axis of heavy mixed
wintry precip/ice perhaps just N/W of the I-71 corridor, with
more rain than anything else favored S/E of I-71, at least until
after 00z Friday when the system pulls quickly off to the east
and the front is able to make a cleaner sweep through the
remainder of the ILN FA. This would suggest that even areas S/E
of I-71 will see at least /some/ wintry precip before the event
comes to an end by daybreak Friday as much colder/drier air
filters in just about everywhere.

While quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the exact
/placement/ of the various ptypes at any one location at any one
time, the overall quantities of liquid-equivalent
precipitation, and overall timing of the system, appear to be
fairly well narrowed-down. The greatest concern with all of this
appears to be the potential for a narrow ribbon of heavier
freezing rain for an extended period of time, with significant
accumulations of ice very possible for parts of the Ohio Valley
during this time frame. That, combined with the wind on the
backside of the system and the /very/ cold temps due to settle
into the region for Friday into Saturday, pose a concerning
setup, to say the least.

Temps for the Friday/Saturday time frame will be below normal,
but will ultimately be impacted at least somewhat by where the
deepest snowpack will be during this time frame.

Good Morning and plenty to catch up on this morning. Voice is raw and what a victory by the Bengals. I will post more late today but looks like one big mess heading this way.

The warm NAM has a much stronger low develop which is very suspect and takes it into the teeth of a 1050ish artic high, which is also very suspect

The ice threat possible here is what worries me and will that continue into Friday?

Snow43130 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:52 am The ice threat possible here is what worries me and will that continue into Friday?

Should be ending as snow sometime Thurs night or early Fri. Depending on where you are.

6Z GEFS snowfall mean def shifted southward. Would love to see 12Z suite continue this trend. We'll see!

I'm seeing rain for my hood this time.

That 6z NAM would have rain up to toledo,

I know Thursday will be bad - because I have to drive up to Dayton for an appointment. LOL Very concerned about ice....and maybe some nice wrap-around snows at the tail end. The last GFS run was flat out ominous for most on here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:56 am

Snow43130 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:52 am The ice threat possible here is what worries me and will that continue into Friday?

Should be ending as snow sometime Thurs night or early Fri. Depending on where you are.

I'm in Lancaster inside Fairfield County

So let me see if I got my model runs right here

NAM is warmest and has very little wintry impacts here
GFS is worst of the bunch with lots of ice and back end snows
Euro is in between.

Am I right? LOL

Snow43130 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:56 am

Snow43130 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:52 am The ice threat possible here is what worries me and will that continue into Friday?

Should be ending as snow sometime Thurs night or early Fri. Depending on where you are.

I'm in Lancaster inside Fairfield County

I'd be worried about ice, sleet, and some snow on top of it. We have a couple more days to fine tune.

This is like the Bengal’s game!! Lol up and down back and forth snow to rain……. I’m not sure if I can take it lol.