Absolute Vorticity

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:27 pm One good thing that is going to happen this weekend. The model runs start an hour earlier. The rest I will leave to chance.

That and an extra hour of sleep too!

32 at CVG right now, will report my temp in a little bit once I check my wx station. I have no changes to my forecast which you already know. Next chance for rain continues to be on Thurs (Veteran's Day) and we continue to watch storm and pattern evolution towards the end of next week and next weekend. Until then... enjoy the calm before things turn active as well as he 60s beginning on Sunday!

EDIT: 26 here!

DT's This Week in Weather talking about our warm up next week and a colder 2nd half of November:

31 at CVG this morning.

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/05/snowta ... pdate-115/

Going to do the last mow after work today before the Sycamore in my front yard begins dropping basketball size leaves soon

I usually grind up leaves thru most of November even when the grass stops growing. Went into December one year due to the oaks being very late. That'll probably be the case this year too thanks to the earlier warmth. Only exception would be if the snow starts flying. Then all bets are off!

Thankfully here in DP we scrape the leaves to the curb and they come around and suck em up. That Sycamore is a pain though due to leaf size (which gets worse when they’re wet).

Definitely late this year. Here’s a look out back of work. Still lots of green.

Most of the trees in my hood are starting to turn now (younger ones) Older trees due to the cold have brown leaves and they are just falling off. Oaks are still green and show no signs of any color at this time.

12z GFS has trended towards the Euro today with a more powerful low pressure system that brings the front thru here on Thurs night with falling temps on Fri of next week. Then a secondary piece of energy almost like a little clipper system dives in under NW flow to perhaps bring us our first flakes of the season by Sunday Nov 14th. Until then... expect quiet weather with a warming trend with winds picking up next week ahead of that strong plains low I just mentioned.

Then, the question becomes how long does the cold last or is this just another glancing blow? That remains to be seen but if our Teleconnection discussion pans out, models should start to trend colder with time esp if the Ensembles are correct. This run of the OP GFS indeed is colder starting next weekend. A step in the right direction IMO.

Many of the 12Z GEFS members this afternoon like what the OP GFS is selling in terms of the storm evolution with our next system for next week as well as that first flakes chance by next weekend that I mentioned. 12z CMC also shows some flurries next Sunday too.

12Z Euro also brings the front in Thurs night into Fri morning. It also has that little clipper system as well. Euro is not as cold so a cold rain, maybe a touch of a mix if the timing were to be at night.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 05, 2021 6:30 am

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:27 pm One good thing that is going to happen this weekend. The model runs start an hour earlier. The rest I will leave to chance.

That and an extra hour of sleep too!

Yeah, can't forget about my extra hour of beauty sleep.

53 at CVG today, 53 here. We should see another good frost in the morning and patchy frost Sun morning then we're good on that front next week. Expecting 50s for highs tomorrow 60 on Sunday then mid 60s Mon and Tues of next week. Low to mid 60s Wed then the rain moves in Thurs. Then we'll see what happens after that temp and precip wise once we get a bit closer. That's my forecast.

EPS still looks cold from mid month on esp near and after the 20th.

Good Saturday morning to you all. Other then the cool mornings, awesome afternoons are ahead this weekend so get out and enjoy it! Get things done outside. Should be great for the UC game today. Great for anything you have planned. 27 imby this morning, 31 at CVG so another good frost / freeze this morning. Should have one more tomorrow morning before we pull out of this pattern for a bit. No changes to the short term and even medium range. The 60s return by Sun and last thru Wed of next week. Rain moves in on Veteran's Day in the afternoon and ends Fri morning the way it looks right now. Then of course temps fall on Friday and we turn colder again by next weekend.

Overnight models like the OP GFS look much colder and more wintry with several snow opportunities. I've said it for the last few days that models should be turning colder for the 2nd half of November as long as the Teleconnections we've been discussing are correct. We'll see if the look holds, but it's starting to look for exciting for sure. Ensembles (GEFS, EPS) continue to show a monster +PNA ridge with troughs over the East and blocking over the top. Even can see the -WPO / -EPO combo as well. Hopefully we will continue to see this look the closer we get towards mid month folks. I am absolutely excited at where we're headed.

I completely agree with this... (we can't expect a Dec 2010 outcome, but would be awesome if it did lol), but the point is the change to colder and an early start to winter is absolutely in the works.

CVG bottomed out at 30 this morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:19 am CVG bottomed out at 30 this morning.

We were down to 27 I believe. Nice heavy frost.

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:19 am CVG bottomed out at 30 this morning.

We were down to 27 I believe. Nice heavy frost.

Same here Matt... 27 for me also. I've had a heavy frost and lows in the 20s for the last 4 nights in a row. Might get one more tomorrow morning (U20s to L30s) then we're done until we turn cold again next weekend.

Some positive MJO news...

0Z EPS Mean for 850 temp anomalies and 500 MB. Long range I know, but it just continues to look good for the after mid month pattern change we've been highlighting for quite sometime.

Good Morning and made it to SC yesterday. Cold and quite windy down here but got use to that back home. Will try and look at all the posts and do a little digging myself today.