March 2025 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 77, DAY 73 and CMH 72 today.

[tron777]

Good morning! Below are the outlooks for today and tonight as well as tomorrow and tomorrow night from the SPC for severe wx.

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Most of the models I have seen are now converging on a low track which favors heavy rain for the I-71 corridor and points SE. I now am going with 1-2" for the area. Lesser amounts NW and your 2" amounts will be over the SE. That would put Cincy in that 1" to 1.5" category. For severe wx, I think the line weakens enough Sat morning to keep us below severe limits. Sat evening into the overnight, we'll just have to keep playing that by ear. Does the south rob us of good moisture return or not is the bigger question for us.

[tron777]

For the longer term: This Week in Weather from DT:

[tron777]

The HRRR doesn't go out far enough yet to capture the entire system but we can see that weakening line with round 1 coming in Sat morning. Should arrive in that 5-7am time range. Then we get a break after that so we'll have to wait and see how warm we get, CAPE, lapse rates, dew points etc. The wind shear part or dynamics will be there IMO.

12Z NAM agrees but still likes that western track for that severe wx chance as well as the heavy rains Sat evening. 2" of rain for CVG as a result of the track.

[tron777]

[tron777]

2" of rain also from the 12Z GFS at CVG. Timing of this for Sat evening looks to be in that 9pm to 1am range at this time. We should be able to narrow that down further tomorrow.

[tron777]

We will fall short of todays record high at CVG which is 79 set back in 2007. I think we'll fall short tomorrow too but it'll be close. For Friday, the record is 80 set back in 1990.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and yes its Thursday and it looks like we can make a decent forecast. Even this far out everything will not go as plan but we try to get as close as possible with the best forecast. Maybe a shower today but again very isolated around here. Friday another warm but windy day and temps getting near record highs once again. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning the squall line will work its way east and reach us early in the morning. Will storms still be strong and probably not but still very windy. How much rain is still one of the hardest areas to predict early Saturday morning

A very interesting set up with one storm well to the northwest but another developing to the southwest in a very quick manner. So do we have enough energy left over for rain and I am going yes but maybe 1/4 inch or so. That part just not sure of even this close to the system. Later Saturday and overnight is when a low heads this way and we look to get a nice dose of rainfall and agree with Les 1-2 inches seems like a good call. I am still not sure the exact placement of the heaviest rain and really it be right along the river and 30-50 either side. Can we somehow miss out and I guess if the storms in the southeast line up west to east and sort of block the deeper moisture but not sure that is how that area is going to play out. My guts tells me in the southeast a really decent tornado threat so many times you have these individual cells form.

Again I still feel good about the later Saturday period and do we get some severe weather. The winds and heavy rain for sure but with some of the energy to our south that may cut down on the severe weather in our area. Not sure how high the dew points go on Saturday.

Will this change between this afternoon and Friday and maybe a small amount but this seems to be a nice springtime event for many areas with most being east of the Mississippi especially Saturday.

[tpweather]

Going to add different points over the next day or so. Once we get into spring and summer I always talk about those key hours between 4a-8a and 4p-8p and those are general times but it really is time periods that can ramp up storms and you get a few surprises. Saturday evening looks like one period but what about the Saturday morning. Does that line run out of steam before getting here or does it still have plenty of energy to ignite the squall line even more. Tough call because of the low developing southwest of here and where is the energy located. Not trying to cover my basis but this is a different kind of event and I say that because one low northwest that is strong but then another strong storm is able to form to the southwest very quickly. Hopefully those finer details come into play a little more clearly by Friday with the short term models and will they agree with each other since this event is one you don't see often and my guess the models have only so much info to go on and throw out the forecast.

[tron777]

Tim... the amount of moisture return we get from the Gulf is going to be the deal breaker IMO in terms of strong storms and heavy rain. Assuming the low track is correct (the more west ward solution) then the dynamics, forcing, lift, etc are all going to be there. The question will be with that secondary low. Will supercells over the SE rob us of that deeper moisture that is needed for our severe wx and heavy rains from the Gulf. Unfortunately all we can do is make our best guess since it will be a nowcast as things unfold.

[tron777]

No changes really from the Euro. Out of the big 3 global models, the Euro has been the most consistent with this system with regards to the low track. 2 1/4" of rain at CVG on this run. That is event total from both rounds. NAM, GFS, and Euro are all three in that 2"+ camp.

[tpweather]

Tim... the amount of moisture return we get from the Gulf is going to be the deal breaker IMO in terms of strong storms and heavy rain. Assuming the low track is correct (the more west ward solution) then the dynamics, forcing, lift, etc are all going to be there. The question will be with that secondary low. Will supercells over the SE rob us of that deeper moisture that is needed for our severe wx and heavy rains from the Gulf. Unfortunately all we can do is make our best guess since it will be a nowcast as things unfold.

I agree Les

[tron777]

LOU and IND have wind advisories out now. I assume ILN will be doing the same here shortly.

[tron777]

75 at CVG as of 3pm, another beauty with one more to go tomorrow. Right now, dews are only in the upper 30s, but winds are finally southerly now so we should see the dew begin to slowly increase as time goes on. How high it gets will help determine our outcome, along with a few other things, with these next couple of events. The severe threat IMO isn't high enough to warrant a separate thread so I didn't create one. If I lived in St. Louis it would have been a different story or in the Gulf States.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 72 both here in G'ville and in DAY.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 77, DAY 74 and CMH 75 today.

[tron777]

CVG has 77 per the 5pm climate report, 2 shy of the record.

[tron777]

18Z NAM is way west over IN with the line of storms and hvy rain Sat night and it falls apart as it reaches us then regenerates east of us. An odd solution but it amounts to less then an inch of rain. I will of course toss it at this time.

[tron777]

18Z HRRR at the end of its run stalls the front right along the river which would mean the tri-state would be in line for the strong storms / hvy rain Sat evening / night.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is going to bring it right up the river too. At CVG we get 2" or so.

[Bgoney]

Farmers have been in the fields all week spraying either fertilizer or herbicides

[tpweather]

Good Evening and another beautiful day and Friday will be nice except the winds will start to pick up. Over the past several days we have talk about many different solutions and still some to work out though we are getting closer to hopefully the correct answer.

I mentioned by Thursday we should have more info to go on and we do but still some things even shorter term models disagree on.

Here is my forecast and how I see it playing out. Overnight Friday into early Saturday morning the squall line that will have formed after a busy period of severe weather to our west will move in say between 2a-5a is my best guess. These squall lines tend to move faster than models show. Still believe some decent winds and rain but the rain part may be in and out within 1 hour so totals most likely near the 1/4 inch range but could be a tad higher in some areas. Behind the rain the winds will continue during the early morning but hopefully by late morning they slacken somewhat.

Then later Saturday afternoon and evening I do believe a very busy period. Do we get severe weather and its still there but most likely its the winds and heavy rains locally. I believe that the storms south of us will not rob to much of the moisture as there will be several cells down there but are not a straight west to east kind of training which would interrupt the flow from the south. So going 1-2 inches and that gets us in the 1.25-2.25 inch range for this system. Further south in central and southern Kentucky amounts may head towards 3 inches in a few sport.

There we go and hopefully not many changes with this forecast and we can get the rainfall of 2 inches or so that would no doubt help as we have fallen behind this month.

Love to hear other folks on how they seeing this play out because there are other possible outcomes but I just put out what I see at the moment and see if it pans out.

[tron777]

I made a post similar to yours this morning Tim. We'll see what the data says tomorrow to see if any tweaks need to be made. Some of this will be nowcasting though as it usually is.

[tron777]

Good morning all! A lot of things to talk about so let's get to it.

1) Record highs possible today. 80 is the record at CVG from 1990. If we hit 80 or more, it is about a month early from when we typically see our 1st 80 of the year. Winds will be picking up too out of the SW pumping in that mild air.

2) Speaking of the wind... we do have a wind advisory issued for the entire region valid 2am tonight thru 8pm Saturday. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph per the advisory text.

3) Severe wx yes or no? We have 2 periods to watch. Supercells will develop across the plains later today and eventually, it will congeal into a squall line and impact us late tonight into early Sat morning in a weakening state. So, the further west you are the better the chance. We are under a marginal risk for this activity with a slight risk for our IN posters. Then, I think we get a break but as the front stalls on top of us, that new low to our SW forms and moves right up along the front draped over the OH River / I-71 area. Thus, a second round of severe wx is possible late this afternoon and evening. This will transition into a heavy rain event also tonight. Everyone is under a slight risk for Sat's action.

4) Rainfall amounts of 1-2" from West to East across the area looks good. If t-storms get involved, amounts can be higher then that. Amounts could be lower in some areas depending on where the front stalls. NW of Cincinnati would have lower amounts most likely. I think Tim and I are on the same page with this. Tim absolutely led the way and gets credit esp if things work out correctly as forecast.

5) Hi-res model data like the HRRR and NAM both agree with this thinking outlined here as well as the timing. The timing of the first round IMO will be in that 5-7am window. The second round looks to be in that 9pm to 12am window with an end time on later Sunday morning. Then we turn colder. From 80 today, to the low 70s tomorrow to 50s on Sunday to a low of 32 Mon morning. Buckle up!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and you have everything covered. We need the rain and a couple of inches would be nice. Temp wise we are 4 degrees above average and of course that will be higher after Saturday.