Absolute Vorticity

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 5:46 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 4:57 pm Eric Elwell of spectrum news posted this on FB. Crazy day on the lake.

waterspout.jpg

Glad that Les didn't plan an Oct Erie fishing trip.

There a bunch of water spouts. Like over 100 and some occurred on the lake.

Good Morning and the raking of more leaves before the wind picks up Love the fall weather!!! So we know the weather for the next 3-4 days but what happens after that is the big question mark. We will have both jets in motion and can these two get together to form a bigger storm or will the jets stay apart. At the moment it seems models believe they stay apart to some extent before they get to the east coast. Looks the the northern jet is stronger at the moment but the STJ is trying to gain some strength. If they come together somewhat then some severe weather is likely. Will this be the pattern for winter and maybe because many times patterns in October can repeat over and over. Would be nice to get a decent rain later this week or weekend .

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 10:45 am Good Morning and the raking of more leaves before the wind picks up Love the fall weather!!! So we know the weather for the next 3-4 days but what happens after that is the big question mark. We will have both jets in motion and can these two get together to form a bigger storm or will the jets stay apart. At the moment it seems models believe they stay apart to some extent before they get to the east coast. Looks the the northern jet is stronger at the moment but the STJ is trying to gain some strength. If they come together somewhat then some severe weather is likely. Will this be the pattern for winter and maybe because many times patterns in October can repeat over and over. Would be nice to get a decent rain later this week or weekend .

My folks and I are planning for a 2nd garage sale late in the week so we'll be in the jets stay apart cheering camp, bro.

Otherwise we'd be in the bring it on big time liquid gold!

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The upper trough should continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and Midwest on Day 6/Friday. Uncertainty regarding sufficient instability to support surface-based thunderstorms becomes even greater at this time frame. But, enhanced low/mid-level flow with the maturing cyclone could support some strong/damaging wind potential with any thunderstorms that can form across the OH Valley. Regardless, predictability with the upper trough quickly becomes too low from Friday into early next weekend to confidently delineate organized severe potential across the eastern CONUS.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
206 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ046-053>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-091815-
Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-
Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Delaware-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
206 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Mostly clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid to upper
30s may lead to patchy frost formation, mainly in sheltered
locations, Monday night into Tuesday morning.

$$

Only 55 here today. I'm down to 50. I am back! We look to get into a more active pattern with a few showers possible overnight into tomorrow morning. Patchy Frost threat Tues morning. Then we spike to 70 and get our next rain chance Wed. Daily rain chances continue thereafter with Friday being the best chance at this time. Temps will spike up into the 70s the second half of next week before dropping into the 50s again for highs by next weekend.

Good morning all! A few isolated showers out there but most folks are cloudy. Just a trace here and at CVG overnight. We will see some sunshine later today and tonight with clear skies and light winds. Frost is possible esp in outlying areas. A nice day tomorrow then a small rain chance again Wed. Fri continues to look likely with lingering rain showers this weekend too.

Let's all wish a very happy birthday to MJR! We hope you have a great day today!!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 7:21 am Let's all wish a very happy birthday to MJR! We hope you have a great day today!!!

Happy Birthday and hope its the best one ever

Welcome Back Les. No frost and Tuesday morning looks possible but not widespread. Dry until very late Wednesday where it looks like a warm front pushes through to give us a chance at some scattered showers. Thursday we will be south of the front so most likely somewhat windy but warm and temps heading towards the mid 70's . Average temps this week are highs in the 68-70 range and lows 48-50 locally. Then the weather gets sort of messy and trying to figure out how this all plays out. A system in the central plains will have some showers and thundershowers while further south near the gulf states and areas of storms likely. Will the two merge and seems unlikely and we just need to see how strong the storm system in the central plains. Without the systems merging many times we have that area in between systems that remain dry. Could that be here and way to early but indications are this could be in the southern Ohio Valley or Tn Valley. Hopefully this comes together for the models and once we have both jets streams involved the models have problems and no doubt its harder to make a decent forecast several days in advance.

I don’t see any involvement from the GOM anytime soon (10days) for the OV/Tennv . The two jets look to remain separate . The SE ridge continues is weak showing or strange displacement, which it has been for many, many months. Definitely not seeeing any drought improving rains for cvgland

Both pieces of energy do look to stay separated so we are continuing to see a good NW Flow pattern with the polar jet staying dominate. The STJ is too far south at this time and the two jets remain split as mentioned by Bgoney and Tim. The Gulf continues to remain closed for business at this time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 9:47 am Both pieces of energy do look to stay separated so we are continuing to see a good NW Flow pattern with the polar jet staying dominate. The STJ is too far south at this time and the two jets remain split as mentioned by Bgoney and Tim. The Gulf continues to remain closed for business at this time.

Exactly Les and nothing really that unusual for this time of year. Once we get past mid-month the second rainy season usually starts and that is normally when the northern jet works its way southward and hopefully the STJ gets more involved. We know the GOM waters are really warm and hopefully this will help in bringing up plenty of moisture later this month into the winter months.

Low 60s outside this afternoon across the area with some CU. These will fade after sunset and provide us with a clear cool night. Should see some frost outside of city centers in the morning. Wed morning could be a similar deal but the flow will begin to turn more southerly so not sure if it can get as cold as tonight. A small rain chance Wed with the better chance still looking to be Fri afternoon thru Sat morning. Just lingering shower chances after that. Rainfall amounts should be light under 1/2". Probably more in the quarter inch range.

How is it looking for Thurs 10/12 as my folks and I are wanting to have a 2nd garage sale on that day?

I'm now posting from my folks and my new house in south Greenville. We're still in the process between there and here and the 3rd and final phase of our move will be Thurs 10/19!

Currently 55 here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:17 pm How is it looking for Thurs 10/12 as my folks and I are wanting to have a 2nd garage sale on that day?

I'm now posting from my folks and my new house in south Greenville. We're still in the process between there and here and the 3rd and final phase of our move will be Thurs 10/19!

Currently 55 here in G'ville.

Thurs should be a dry and warm day as the warm front passes Wed / Wed night. Cold front comes in Fri afternoon / night.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:22 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:17 pm How is it looking for Thurs 10/12 as my folks and I are wanting to have a 2nd garage sale on that day?

I'm now posting from my folks and my new house in south Greenville. We're still in the process between there and here and the 3rd and final phase of our move will be Thurs 10/19!

Currently 55 here in G'ville.

Thurs should be a dry and warm day as the warm front passes Wed / Wed night. Cold front comes in Fri afternoon / night.

Thank you very much Les!

I don't really see any extreme weather headed our way for a while. A coolish weather pattern yes and a couple of nice days thrown in too, but nothing extremely active. Ensemble guidance by and large keep the same pattern we are in going for the next couple of weeks.

I also just posted on this in our West Pac tropical thread but TS Bolaven will become a typhoon soon then recurve to the NE off the coast of Japan. This should help in keeping our +PNA pattern going for the second half of October.

EDIT: I checked the MJO and we are seeing a weak Phase 8 > 1 response and even the neutral circle as well so not much of an MJO response right now but when it does respond it is weak Phase 8 and 1. Better then having it in the IO (Indian Ocean) or MC (Maritime Continent).

HAPPY 64TH BIRTHDAY MJR!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

65 here today. Not a bad evening outside.

Good Evening and I see plenty of frost advisories for the mid-west and Ohio Valley. Once the winds died down no doubt some frost was going to happen. Not a killing frost and some folks will not see any especially since its been dry and frost loves a wetter ground. Concerning rainfall and I agree most amounts should be no more than 1/2 inch with any system except if we can add some thunderstorms and imo that may be the case later Friday. Way too early and the timing is always important. I just love the temps and only wish we could get more rain but we are heading into the second rainy season and that usually lasts about 45 days or so. Still expecting a higher than normal severe second season as I do expect the GOM to finally get in on the action and there will be plenty of energy to work off of.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 7:21 am Let's all wish a very happy birthday to MJR! We hope you have a great day today!!!

Thank you

35 here this morning. I don't see any frost on the grass but some on the roof tops is visible. 37 as of 7am at CVG.

EDIT: 36 officially at CVG this morning.