Absolute Vorticity

Forum not blocked where I work anymore, yay!

Euro has been stubborn in moving the low right over us. I'll take whatever we get!

The amount of posts will go up today is my guess. We have the upper system over southwest Texas and over the next few hours a surface low will form near the Louisiana coast. Those two will head north and finally northeast. The system in the northern plains seems to have slowed down somewhat and could this be why models are shifting a little further south and east? This system though is rather wild with no true arctic air involved. The arctic air is waiting and will start to enter the northern plains by Thursday and with some decent snow cover to the north and west of us I expect models are not quite getting the weekend system correct but will worry about that after Wednesday and also in a different thread.

markalot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:18 am Forum not blocked where I work anymore, yay!

Euro has been stubborn in moving the low right over us. I'll take whatever we get!

Great point and really the Euro was the furthest east over the weekend and moved further west in time but you are correct over the past 24 hours pretty much the same track though overnight I saw just a little movement with that model to the southeast. Plenty of moving parts to this system and when one does something a little different like slowing down or slight shift in the track the outcome for areas can change. This is truly a nice storm system to follow. If the dynamic cooling was not happening this would be a cold rain storm turning to light snow late Wednesday.

Good morning all! Looks like even the GFS has the low coming over us now. Only the NAM is NW of us. Interesting! Still I like what I said last night for 1-3" for CVG, some mixed precip as we talked about then light rain / drizzle. Back to snow showers once the low passes for everyone thru Thurs and even lingering into Fri as well although much lighter by then. Also, additional light accum for this activity is likely as well.

A cold morning since skies cleared and we got down into the 20s. We will see 40+ today with some sun this morning before clouds take over and stronger SW flow sets up. Also... thanks Tim for talking about the wind. Winds on Wed / Wed night will be gusting to 35 mph with this system.

Good Morning Les and I am still waiting for the afternoon runs to make my call. Yes very late in making the call but I thought this system is complex in many areas that we don't always see and wanted to get the latest info. Big question for me is with the dynamic cooling and how long does this last and how intense. Even just a 3 hour period of heavy wet snow can add up quickly.

We made it to 22 in my neighborhood.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:44 am Good Morning Les and I am still waiting for the afternoon runs to make my call. Yes very late in making the call but I thought this system is complex in many areas that we don't always see and wanted to get the latest info. Big question for me is with the dynamic cooling and how long does this last and how intense. Even just a 3 hour period of heavy wet snow can add up quickly.

The degree of WAA and the fact that the low is coming up right at us has me a little gun shy with this one plus the threat of mixed precip cutting into the totals. Dynamic cooling can absolutely help overcome some of this of course with very heavy precip rates. That'll be so critical for any heavier calls to materialize. This system has the potential to either bust low or high. It can go either way.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:48 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:44 am Good Morning Les and I am still waiting for the afternoon runs to make my call. Yes very late in making the call but I thought this system is complex in many areas that we don't always see and wanted to get the latest info. Big question for me is with the dynamic cooling and how long does this last and how intense. Even just a 3 hour period of heavy wet snow can add up quickly.

The degree of WAA and the fact that the low is coming up right at us has me a little gun shy with this one plus the threat of mixed precip cutting into the totals. Dynamic cooling can absolutely help overcome some of this of course with very heavy precip rates. That'll be so critical for any heavier calls to materialize. This system has the potential to either bust low or high. It can go either way.

No doubt busts are going to happen with this system and after awhile you just need to put your best forecast out and see what happens. Interesting and concerning the wind direction overnight. Normally with the WAA the winds would come out of the southeast or just south. They remain from the east most of the night into early Wednesday. Just these little details make it very interesting imo. No matter what happens I find this system interesting. Pressures are starting to fall in southeast Texas and southwest La.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:48 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:44 am Good Morning Les and I am still waiting for the afternoon runs to make my call. Yes very late in making the call but I thought this system is complex in many areas that we don't always see and wanted to get the latest info. Big question for me is with the dynamic cooling and how long does this last and how intense. Even just a 3 hour period of heavy wet snow can add up quickly.

The degree of WAA and the fact that the low is coming up right at us has me a little gun shy with this one plus the threat of mixed precip cutting into the totals. Dynamic cooling can absolutely help overcome some of this of course with very heavy precip rates. That'll be so critical for any heavier calls to materialize. This system has the potential to either bust low or high. It can go either way.

Les normally this track would be a killer for snow chances in our area especially since we have no arctic air involved. I understand being gun shy and believe me the range of snow in our area is rather large. Once you get towards Indy much less in the way of a range. I always have a hard time with a bigger range in snow totals but this time I may need to throw that out. Again I will wait until the Euro is out this afternoon though by then any change to the track should have been handled by the other models.

NWS LOU has expanded their winter weather advisory for more of their counties including Metro Louisville all the way over to Frankfort.

Less than 18 hrs until event , I'm in nowcast mode. Letting the forecast ride atp. If ma nature throws a curve it's another victory her

12Z HRRR is coming in and it is showing the best front end snows NW of the I-71 corridor which makes sense as the low rolls right up the river and into Tri-state. It even shows mixing issues for a time at IND.

If I remember correctly from one of Mike's posts from yesterday of where the jackpot zone will be: St. Louis to Ft. Wayne, to Toledo / Detroit. I think that is spot on!

Looks like 2-3 type event on the HRRR.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:26 am Less than 18 hrs until event , I'm in nowcast mode. Letting the forecast ride atp. If ma nature throws a curve it's another victory her

I like your map on the previous page! I think that looks very good.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:32 am Looks like 2-3 type event on the HRRR.

Yep. I like 1-3" for a lot of us in the Metro area. I can see up to 4-5" for folks further north before the changeover being possible, but your big winners of 6" plus will be back across our NW counties in IN.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:26 am Less than 18 hrs until event , I'm in nowcast mode. Letting the forecast ride atp. If ma nature throws a curve it's another victory her

I like your map on the previous page! I think that looks very good.

Thanks , fairly confident, kept the minimum range low for each zone to allow for WAA possibly keeping things in check

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:26 am Less than 18 hrs until event , I'm in nowcast mode. Letting the forecast ride atp. If ma nature throws a curve it's another victory her

I like your map on the previous page! I think that looks very good.

Thanks , fairly confident, kept the minimum range low for each zone to allow for WAA possibly keeping things in check

That is exactly why I am pretty much in agreement with you on this one. WAA can help under the right conditions, aka Sunday but can also hurt which it usually does in our area 90% of the time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:32 am If I remember correctly from one of Mike's posts from yesterday of where the jackpot zone will be: St. Louis to Ft. Wayne, to Toledo / Detroit. I think that is spot on!

Yeah I had Indy to Ft Wayne to Detroit.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:39 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:32 am If I remember correctly from one of Mike's posts from yesterday of where the jackpot zone will be: St. Louis to Ft. Wayne, to Toledo / Detroit. I think that is spot on!

Yeah I had Indy to Ft Wayne to Detroit.

I was close!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:04 am No changes for me from 24 hrs ago. A 4-6hr period of moderate to heavy precip in the predawn hours tomorrow. Ranges include 1-3" near the river and 2-5" zone north of there and a 3-6" zone NW of there






thump3.PNG

I like this map too - my only change would be a sharper SE cutoff ala NAM/HRRR (sorry Matt)!

Per SPC mesopage, the southern low is getting ready to cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into SE Texas. Meanwhile, the northern low is also crossing the border from Canada into ND.

Radar shows the WAA precip way out ahead of the low blossoming over TX, OK, starting to get into LA and AR as well.

Mentioned last night, we do not want to see the low under a 1000mb , especially for areas near the river

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:50 am Mentioned last night, we do not want to see the low under a 1000mb , especially for areas near the river

I think that it will be strong. I'm going with 996-998 MB range which most guidance is showing as it moves thru.