Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:48 pm Les the two major things I have been looking at with the first being the strong system heading into western Alaska. Many times these are true pattern changers and especially with all the cold that has stored up in Alaska and getting a system to move that cold eastward is key. Second is the lower 48 is finally getting stormy and yes more of a mid-late November type of pattern however we are able to tap some of the cold air in Canada. The past two weeks the cold has continued to build in northern and central Canada. With the uptick in weather systems and I still believe a parade of storms instead of one big storm we are able to tap some of the cold but with the systems moving quickly makes it hard to warm up before the next system rolls in. Already seeing the weather service in southern parts of central Canada lower their temps for early next week by at least 10 degree since a few days ago and this tells me the cold is on the move.

Tim, BG sure seemed more optimistic in his video then I have been. You're more on the line with BG's thinking also. I'm not ruling out some wintry weather next week. I still think that is certainly on the table. After that, I am not so sure. Euro has been consistently colder all week long vs the GFS and I'm waiting for one model to cave into the other and so far that has not happened. I guess you could say I am on the fence so to speak since the data is as well.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:03 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:48 pm Les the two major things I have been looking at with the first being the strong system heading into western Alaska. Many times these are true pattern changers and especially with all the cold that has stored up in Alaska and getting a system to move that cold eastward is key. Second is the lower 48 is finally getting stormy and yes more of a mid-late November type of pattern however we are able to tap some of the cold air in Canada. The past two weeks the cold has continued to build in northern and central Canada. With the uptick in weather systems and I still believe a parade of storms instead of one big storm we are able to tap some of the cold but with the systems moving quickly makes it hard to warm up before the next system rolls in. Already seeing the weather service in southern parts of central Canada lower their temps for early next week by at least 10 degree since a few days ago and this tells me the cold is on the move.

Tim, BG sure seemed more optimistic in his video then I have been. You're more on the line with BG's thinking also. I'm not ruling out some wintry weather next week. I still think that is certainly on the table. After that, I am not so sure. Euro has been consistently colder all week long vs the GFS and I'm waiting for one model to cave into the other and so far that has not happened. I guess you could say I am on the fence so to speak since the data is as well.

Hey Les he did mentioned that the gfs ensembles were closer to the Euro compared to the operational run.

12Z Euro not much change there either. Some festive light snow for late Tues night / Wed morning (probably no issues attm anyway) and that's about it.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:03 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:48 pm Les the two major things I have been looking at with the first being the strong system heading into western Alaska. Many times these are true pattern changers and especially with all the cold that has stored up in Alaska and getting a system to move that cold eastward is key. Second is the lower 48 is finally getting stormy and yes more of a mid-late November type of pattern however we are able to tap some of the cold air in Canada. The past two weeks the cold has continued to build in northern and central Canada. With the uptick in weather systems and I still believe a parade of storms instead of one big storm we are able to tap some of the cold but with the systems moving quickly makes it hard to warm up before the next system rolls in. Already seeing the weather service in southern parts of central Canada lower their temps for early next week by at least 10 degree since a few days ago and this tells me the cold is on the move.

Tim, BG sure seemed more optimistic in his video then I have been. You're more on the line with BG's thinking also. I'm not ruling out some wintry weather next week. I still think that is certainly on the table. After that, I am not so sure. Euro has been consistently colder all week long vs the GFS and I'm waiting for one model to cave into the other and so far that has not happened. I guess you could say I am on the fence so to speak since the data is as well.

Hey Les he did mentioned that the gfs ensembles were closer to the Euro compared to the operational run.

Correct and that is still the case this afternoon.

This is a long ways out but the Euro is coming in with a stronger system for next weekend (0Z run had snow just to our NW) so on this run, it'll probably turn into a cutter. Doesn't matter this far away anyway, just posting what the model is showing.

Behind that system near the end of the Euro run... wow! Some true arctic air finally invades the country. We're talking days 9 and 10 of course so the temporary EPO ridge could easily be a phantom but it does continue what I've been seeing all week long. GFS continues to be the warmest model and Euro has been remarkedly colder. Still waiting to see which model caves in.

I snagged this off the internet. 12Z EPS is on board for some flakes Wed morning.

Blizzard warning for the summits in Hawaii.

Hey Les, here is the snow depth map from that EPS map you posted above. I guess even a half inch is better than nothing!

Another beautiful getterdone kind of day. 2 more to go before a stretch of wet miserable days. Models are meeting in the middle atm for tues/we'd with rain/snow mix/rain. Wonderful

MANHUNT UNDERWAY for James and Jennifer Crumbley, parents of Oxford Twp, MI school shooter Ethan Crumbley. They are believed to be driving a 2021 black Kia Seltos.

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 30 Sat morning.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:09 pm Blizzard warning for the summits in Hawaii.

I need to go there LOL The summits of Hawaii get those a few times a season.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:41 pm Hey Les, here is the snow depth map from that EPS map you posted above. I guess even a half inch is better than nothing!

Mike... I'll take a car topper or a ground duster. Beats the hell out of 65 yesterday and 60 again today here imby.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 5:15 pm Another beautiful getterdone kind of day. 2 more to go before a stretch of wet miserable days. Models are meeting in the middle atm for tues/we'd with rain/snow mix/rain. Wonderful

I got my last leaf grinding of the season done this evening. Glad the lawn tractor has headlights. Finished up about a half hour ago, ate some chow, now ready to talk weather for a bit before bed.

The snow for next week isn't going to be a huge deal (as you know) but the chances for us to at least see some flakes... maybe even get a dusting out of it, is there.

18Z OP GFS is coming more in line with everyone else for Wed of next week. Many of the 18Z GEFS members show mixed precip as well. Like Bgoney said, models as a whole are finally coming together for this event. Looking like the kitchen sink for sure. It beats all rain like what we'll see for Sun late into Sun night that is for sure.

Weather has been nice. Trying to get as much done before it gets miserable. Almost done, and need a the end of next week to be ok as that when I want to get back to the properties with Oak trees and hope that they are all down. Other than that, just finishing up the stragglers that are being a p.i.t.a.

You can always go on Twitter to find eternal hope!

MJO forecast from the Euro. Maybe some hope as we approach Christmas?

Yea , that's what the AV gang has alluded to over the last few days . The need for an MJO boost to upset the less than ideal PAC is on everyones Christmas wish list.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:41 pm Yea , that's what the AV gang has alluded to over the last few days . The need for an MJO boost to upset the less than ideal PAC is on everyones Christmas wish list.

All I want for Christmas is the MJO, the MJO, the MJO. All I want for Christmas is the MJooooo

Good morning all! One last nice day before clouds and wind increase tomorrow with rain coming in around the 4-6pm window. Windy with falling temps on Monday. A cold Tues in the low to mid 30s. Then some snow possible Tues night ending as some rain on Wed. Then we warm up again by the end of the week and into next weekend. Probably another rain maker to deal with by then.

Good Morning and going to be a nice day for early December. How much rain do we get later Sunday into early Monday. Should be some totals over an inch especially south of the river but I made a mistake and believing higher amounts because the speed of the system does not warrant the higher totals. So many folks will be near the 1/2 inch mark but early Monday morning between 4a-9a if you are near the front rainfall could be heavy for a few hours and getting to that 1 inch mark is possible. Going to turn colder on Monday and wind chills should become a factor later in the day and overnight Monday. That is the first system and will try and work on the rest of the week as the busy season has finally arrived after a very calm November.

The lowest temps I could find this morning was -62 in northeast Asia,-47 in northern Canada and -35 in interior Alaska. So we have plenty of cold air to attack which is good and though over the next few weeks the mother lode of cold will not head into the area we will be stormy enough and these systems will pick up some of the cold air that we will have chances at winter weather.

Watching the mjo and the Aussie's have it in phase 6. Took 5 days to go from phase 4 to phase 6 unlike the previous 25 days where it stayed in phase 4. Bgoney brought this up several weeks ago how the mjo was not moving and that was a perfect forecast. The good thing is the wave is gaining some mojo and hopefully it can travel through phase 6 quickly as well.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:54 am Watching the mjo and the Aussie's have it in phase 6. Took 5 days to go from phase 4 to phase 6 unlike the previous 25 days where it stayed in phase 4. Bgoney brought this up several weeks ago how the mjo was not moving and that was a perfect forecast. The good thing is the wave is gaining some mojo and hopefully it can travel through phase 6 quickly as well.

Hopefully it can keep on trucking so we can see changes in time for Christmas!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:56 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:54 am Watching the mjo and the Aussie's have it in phase 6. Took 5 days to go from phase 4 to phase 6 unlike the previous 25 days where it stayed in phase 4. Bgoney brought this up several weeks ago how the mjo was not moving and that was a perfect forecast. The good thing is the wave is gaining some mojo and hopefully it can travel through phase 6 quickly as well.

Hopefully it can keep on trucking so we can see changes in time for Christmas!

I like using the 850 anomaliesas to one of the ways to monitor the progress and possible strength. You can see the movement the last few days, but atm doesn't appear all that strong , but still better than spinning its wheels