Absolute Vorticity

12Z Euro has nothing until late afternoon Thurs with the next cold front. That is a tad slower then the last run. The Euro blows the front through and that second low develops well east of us. I don't buy the front blasting thru that quickly. So the trends that I am currently buying are slower. I am going dry until Thurs right now then we'll see how that plays out. I currently do not buy that first front on Tues of next week that the GFS has. No other model has it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:12 pm 12Z CMC has a much slower solution for next week. We're dry until Friday then the front never does make it thru. At day 10, which is next Sat, a low forms and deepens along the southern end of the front. Low location is over Central MS, then the model stops there.

The CMC would be a nice hit for us imo. Several options and the models are no doubt throwing out different ideals for late next week into the weekend. I still believe its a quick shot of cold but going to give it a few days to put out any specific's concerning the time period.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:12 pm 12Z CMC has a much slower solution for next week. We're dry until Friday then the front never does make it thru. At day 10, which is next Sat, a low forms and deepens along the southern end of the front. Low location is over Central MS, then the model stops there.

The CMC would be a nice hit for us imo. Several options and the models are no doubt throwing out different ideals for late next week into the weekend. I still believe its a quick shot of cold but going to give it a few days to put out any specific's concerning the time period.

My early thoughts for now Tim are to go slower and with low tracks to our West. Like you said, things will and can change but that's my current expectation.

50 at CVG today. Averages are now at 59 / 39. So anything in the 60s is now above avg which comes Sunday into next week. My high hit 51 today and we're already dropping. 47 imby now, 48 at CVG. Another frost / freeze is likely tonight and probably the next several nights. We will warm up at night probably this weekend into early next week.

Remembered to bring in my rain gauge. Fortunately it was empty, so no freeze damage. Garden not so lucky.

I'm already down to 39. Doesn't take long with very little in the way of clouds and calm winds. Nice radiational cooling conditions tonight.

Good Thursday morning to you all! 20s and L30s across the area this morning. We should see frosts / freezes thru at least Sat morning. More patchy on Sun morning then a short break. 50ish today, L50s tomorrow, mid 50s Sat, and the 60s return for Sunday thru at least Wed of next week.

We continue to watch the evolution and timing of our next system as well as a change to cooler weather again by next weekend. I'm expecting rain sometime Thurs or Fri. Then with the second low, more rain over the weekend or the fantasy GFS has our first snowfall with an Apps runner. Still not going to buy that solution at this time. Keeping my thoughts I posted yesterday on that. Euro keeps blasting the front through and no secondary low development, which I don't buy either. I like the slower solution with the secondary low to our West.

28 imby this morning. 30 currently at CVG.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 6:33 am Good Thursday morning to you all! 20s and L30s across the area this morning. We should see frosts / freezes thru at least Sat morning. More patchy on Sun morning then a short break. 50ish today, L50s tomorrow, mid 50s Sat, and the 60s return for Sunday thru at least Wed of next week.

We continue to watch the evolution and timing of our next system as well as a change to cooler weather again by next weekend. I'm expecting rain sometime Thurs or Fri. Then with the second low, more rain over the weekend or the fantasy GFS has our first snowfall with an Apps runner. Still not going to buy that solution at this time. Keeping my thoughts I posted yesterday on that. Euro keeps blasting the front through and no secondary low development, which I don't buy either. I like the slower solution with the secondary low to our West.

Good Morning Les. Starting Sunday we get the models 1 hour earlier. Forecast looks great and concerning late next week. I agree about the Apps runner and not seeing that set up. I am leaning towards the faster solution and still believe we just have a 2 day cool down before we become in a more zonal pattern starting around 15th or 16th. How long will the zonal pattern last and from what I can see at this point is about a week or so. The mjo is pretty weak and if that remains the same I believe we are okay for a late November cool down. We do not want the mjo to head towards phases 3-6 and this is where a milder pattern can last much longer. Not seeing that at the moment. The QBO is still dropping and lets hope that stops because that is one thing that can get out of hand.

The build up of cold has been a slow process this fall across the NH and snowfall is below normal. . I wish I knew the answer except with the AO being either negative or near normal could be one cause. Seeing some cold building into Alaska and also western and central Canada next week and also in western Europe. Love seeing the cold in western Europe if it happens because usually in the 10-14 day period afterwards we tend to get some of that cold air. Does it happen all the time and of course not but I will take our chances.

Good morning Tim... thanks! I am waiting to see what the set up looks like when we get closer concerning the next round of cold and how long it stays. I am leaning towards your thoughts of a quick in and out shot, but I am also seeing growing signals of more sustainable cold perhaps near the 18th or so. Seeing some good teleconnection signals of -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO. All favorable for early season cold and possible snow for the Central and Eastern US. Concerning the MJO, it still looks very weak so I do not see that as being a driver of the pattern at this point.

EDIT: I am rooting for the WPO to tank negative as the guidance is showing. If that drives the pattern, it is going to be a good sign for early season fun.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:48 am Good morning Tim... thanks! I am waiting to see what the set up looks like when we get closer concerning the next round of cold and how long it stays. I am leaning towards your thoughts of a quick in and out shot, but I am also seeing growing signals of more sustainable cold perhaps near the 18th or so. Seeing some good teleconnection signals of -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, AO, and -NAO. All favorable for early season cold and possible snow for the Central and Eastern US. Concerning the MJO, it still looks very weak so I do not see that as being a driver of the pattern at this point.

Great Post Les and I agree their are some nice signals later in the month. I am just going about 3-5 days slower as it can take sometime to get these teleconnection signals in order. To me the later in November we turn to that possible pattern the better shot we have at getting some winter weather. Never been a big fan of getting winter weather in the first half of November because it seems then we turn milder and it takes awhile to turn the tables. Mother Nature always balancing things out and tough to figure her out sometimes.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:48 am Good morning Tim... thanks! I am waiting to see what the set up looks like when we get closer concerning the next round of cold and how long it stays. I am leaning towards your thoughts of a quick in and out shot, but I am also seeing growing signals of more sustainable cold perhaps near the 18th or so. Seeing some good teleconnection signals of -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, AO, and -NAO. All favorable for early season cold and possible snow for the Central and Eastern US. Concerning the MJO, it still looks very weak so I do not see that as being a driver of the pattern at this point.

Great Post Les and I agree their are some nice signals later in the month. I am just going about 3-5 days slower as it can take sometime to get these teleconnection signals in order. To me the later in November we turn to that possible pattern the better shot we have at getting some winter weather. Never been a big fan of getting winter weather in the first half of November because it seems then we turn milder and it takes awhile to turn the tables. Mother Nature always balancing things out and tough to figure her out sometimes.

100% agree Tim... the longer it holds off in Nov, the better chance we've got in December. We're on the same page with this line of thinking for sure. Would love to see the flip occur near Thanksgiving instead of the 18th, but I'll take whatever I can get.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:54 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:48 am Good morning Tim... thanks! I am waiting to see what the set up looks like when we get closer concerning the next round of cold and how long it stays. I am leaning towards your thoughts of a quick in and out shot, but I am also seeing growing signals of more sustainable cold perhaps near the 18th or so. Seeing some good teleconnection signals of -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, AO, and -NAO. All favorable for early season cold and possible snow for the Central and Eastern US. Concerning the MJO, it still looks very weak so I do not see that as being a driver of the pattern at this point.

Great Post Les and I agree their are some nice signals later in the month. I am just going about 3-5 days slower as it can take sometime to get these teleconnection signals in order. To me the later in November we turn to that possible pattern the better shot we have at getting some winter weather. Never been a big fan of getting winter weather in the first half of November because it seems then we turn milder and it takes awhile to turn the tables. Mother Nature always balancing things out and tough to figure her out sometimes.

100% agree Tim... the longer it holds off in Nov, the better chance we've got in December. We're on the same page with this line of thinking for sure. Would love to see the flip occur near Thanksgiving instead of the 18th, but I'll take whatever I can get.

Sounding a little greedy Les lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:56 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:54 am
100% agree Tim... the longer it holds off in Nov, the better chance we've got in December. We're on the same page with this line of thinking for sure. Would love to see the flip occur near Thanksgiving instead of the 18th, but I'll take whatever I can get.

Sounding a little greedy Les lol.

LOL! When it comes to snow, you know it! I live and breathe for the winter season.

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/04/snowta ... -blog-114/

Storm evolution keeps changing but one thing's for sure, the quiet weather will be over later next week and beyond. Enjoy the quiet while we've got it. 12Z GFS has a lot of action as we approach mid month and beyond. Mainly rain systems but that can change. Would not rule out first flakes should the correct set up occur. For now will go all rain since it's only 11/4 lol

EDIT: This should be good for the snowpack to start building over Southern Canada which we absolutely need.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:01 pm Storm evolution keeps changing but one thing's for sure, the quiet weather will be over later next week and beyond. Enjoy the quiet while we've got it. 12Z GFS has a lot of action as we approach mid month and beyond. Mainly rain systems but that can change. Would not rule out first flakes should the correct set up occur. For now will go all rain since it's only 11/4 lol

EDIT: This should be good for the snowpack to start building over Southern Canada which we absolutely need.

Hey Les. One of the first days where temps in Northern Canada is heading colder during the day this season. Eureka is -15 at this hour and glad to see some really decent cold develop and I agree that not only southern Canada but central Canada should get some decent snows over the next 10 days or so. This along with some decent cold in Alaska and getting that correct tellies can bring us some winter weather later in Nov and Dec. I know models are showing more in the way of winter weather even starting next weekend and I believe its a little too early but yes some flakes may fly if everything sets up correctly. I hope it waits until Nov 22nd when I will be back in town.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:01 pm Storm evolution keeps changing but one thing's for sure, the quiet weather will be over later next week and beyond. Enjoy the quiet while we've got it. 12Z GFS has a lot of action as we approach mid month and beyond. Mainly rain systems but that can change. Would not rule out first flakes should the correct set up occur. For now will go all rain since it's only 11/4 lol

EDIT: This should be good for the snowpack to start building over Southern Canada which we absolutely need.

Hey Les. One of the first days where temps in Northern Canada is heading colder during the day this season. Eureka is -15 at this hour and glad to see some really decent cold develop and I agree that not only southern Canada but central Canada should get some decent snows over the next 10 days or so. This along with some decent cold in Alaska and getting that correct tellies can bring us some winter weather later in Nov and Dec. I know models are showing more in the way of winter weather even starting next weekend and I believe its a little too early but yes some flakes may fly if everything sets up correctly. I hope it waits until Nov 22nd when I will be back in town.

That would work for me Tim! Get the foundation laid down then you bring us back some luck and bingo! I kind of like the CFSV2's progression here over the next few weeks. 2M temp anomalies are what you're looking at. First map is Week 1 and 2, the second one are Weeks 3 and 4. As you can see... our current cold snap. Then we moderate next week. Then in weeks 3 and 4, you can see we cool back down. It's not showing very cold air but it's a week 3 and week 4 forecast. It's the actual trend that is important rather then the actual anomaly value being shown.

12z Euro has a few light showers Wed then the best action late Thurs and Thurs night. Again the storm evolution continues to change on many of these model runs so a lot of uncertainty right now towards the end of next week and beyond.

Too early to know if this is right but the changes from the 0Z GEFS run to the 12Z GEFS run are pretty stark. That is what the image below is showing per Bamwx.com More blocking over the North Pacific would mean a colder second half of Nov. We should proceed with caution this far out of course.

NWS ILN are making changes to their Flood Products and will take effect on 11/8:

An AR event for Alaska brought copious qpf totals and most likely snow amounts in the mtns that are impossible to measure

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:33 pm An AR event for Alaska brought copious qpf totals and most likely snow amounts in the mtns that are impossible to measure


Screenshot_20211104-192959_Chrome.jpg

I heard about that... feet upon feet upon feet of snow in some of the AK mountains. Would love to be there to witness something like that.

Should be another good frost in the morning... I'm down to 37 already.

One good thing that is going to happen this weekend. The model runs start an hour earlier. The rest I will leave to chance.