Absolute Vorticity

Yes those dew points in the upper 20's to mid 30's and a strong wind from the south is a recipe for rapid rise in temps. Though its 70 the breeze makes it seem somewhat cooler but still nice. The PNA is negative for the first time in quite awhile and that also tends to bring us milder temps. The pacific can be a bully often and this year not so much but again probably going to stop me ask for my lunch money again.

No changes in the weekend and again I don't expect a firm forecast until Thursday and there is going to be a sharp cutoff to the west on Saturday of the heavier rains and believe we are not there yet but hopefully in two days we have this sort of nailed down. Still believe though with the strong push of southerly winds the rains may end up further west than it showed yesterday as well. How far west and again is that eastern Illinois or western Indiana or is it eastern Indiana and western Ohio where the cutoff is and again just going to wait on my part and go with the 1 inch total with busts possible in both directions.

A couple of GEFS members nail us with the heavier rain and stronger storms Sat night but the bulk of the members have it SE of Cincinnati. A lot in our SE counties and a few even SE of ILN's CWA.

12Z Euro brings in the heavier rains to our hoods. It continues to be further west then the GFS. The CMC is confused on what to do exactly having a band NW and SE of Cincinnati. For now... my call is good if the GFS is right. Tim's call is good if the Euro is right. As Tim said, we should know by Thursday and I agree with him on that.

75 as of 3pm at CVG. How much higher can we go?

76 per the 5pm climate report at CVG, warmest we have seen since November.

CVG reached 76, DAY 73 and CMH 74 today.

Good morning all! Another beauty today, a small shower chance tomorrow, and another beauty for Friday (although the wind will start to pick up). For Fri night thru Sat night.... the hi-res models will begin to start seeing this system tonight into tomorrow so hopefully tomorrow, we can begin to see more clearly what will happen. For now, the global models are west. GFS now hammers us with the heavy rain and the Euro moved more to the NW getting SE IN. Hopefully, we can nail this down tomorrow but it appears that may call is going to be wrong and Tim maybe right. I will not change yet until tomorrow once we see some hi-res stuff.

SPC's latest outlooks:

Good Morning Les and usually when we disagree it ends up somewhere in the middle. Couple reasons I went further west is the strong southerly winds and though we have a cold front near us its not the strongest of fronts so I thought it would get stalled somewhere near us. Again wait until Thursday just to make sure these changes continue. Still 1 inch locally but that will change most likely in the next day or so. Precip rates are higher as we approach spring and totals can no doubt end up higher. Most likely forecast will be 1-2 inches and locally higher if you have some training of storms. Will not go there yet but I can see it playing out that way.

Severe weather and interesting and probably the biggest threat is strong winds as usual but to the west no doubt chances for tornado's are likely. One item we could see with storms later Saturday is hail and something we don't see too much.

BG's video will be starting shortly:

EDIT: It has started!

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 12, 2025 9:39 am Good Morning Les and usually when we disagree it ends up somewhere in the middle. Couple reasons I went further west is the strong southerly winds and though we have a cold front near us its not the strongest of fronts so I thought it would get stalled somewhere near us. Again wait until Thursday just to make sure these changes continue. Still 1 inch locally but that will change most likely in the next day or so. Precip rates are higher as we approach spring and totals can no doubt end up higher. Most likely forecast will be 1-2 inches and locally higher if you have some training of storms. Will not go there yet but I can see it playing out that way.

Severe weather and interesting and probably the biggest threat is strong winds as usual but to the west no doubt chances for tornado's are likely. One item we could see with storms later Saturday is hail and something we don't see too much.

Good morning Tim! For hail, we want to see cold air aloft and we should have it for this system. We also would want to see steep lapse rates which would promote decent updrafts. A lot of this is going to be nowcasting since we know how fickle severe wx can be. Wind is certainly the bigger concern that I have along with heavy rain should the westerly track be correct. Once we see some hi-res data tomorrow, I'll try and make a final call.

The record high for today at CVG is 76 set back in 1990. This is going to be reachable IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 12, 2025 9:43 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 12, 2025 9:39 am Good Morning Les and usually when we disagree it ends up somewhere in the middle. Couple reasons I went further west is the strong southerly winds and though we have a cold front near us its not the strongest of fronts so I thought it would get stalled somewhere near us. Again wait until Thursday just to make sure these changes continue. Still 1 inch locally but that will change most likely in the next day or so. Precip rates are higher as we approach spring and totals can no doubt end up higher. Most likely forecast will be 1-2 inches and locally higher if you have some training of storms. Will not go there yet but I can see it playing out that way.

Severe weather and interesting and probably the biggest threat is strong winds as usual but to the west no doubt chances for tornado's are likely. One item we could see with storms later Saturday is hail and something we don't see too much.

Good morning Tim! For hail, we want to see cold air aloft and we should have it for this system. We also would want to see steep lapse rates which would promote decent updrafts. A lot of this is going to be nowcasting since we know how fickle severe wx can be. Wind is certainly the bigger concern that I have along with heavy rain should the westerly track be correct. Once we see some hi-res data tomorrow, I'll try and make a final call.

Great Post Les and Brian and his video really had some nice details and one I sort of forgot is the storms well to the south could rob us of some of the energy. That could be good news in terms of severe weather but we would still have the heavy rain later Saturday. Very complex Friday and Saturday and as we have been saying all week lets wait until Thursday and hopefully the shorter term models are able to narrow down the area that could be hit the hardest.

It is going to be a tough one to call. Like snow storms, severe wx events have many complexities to them as well. You don't want to hype it, but you don't want to discount the possibilities either.

65 now at CVG, same temp at this time yesterday when we had 76 for the high.

12Z GFS keeping us dry now until Sat morning. An incoming line weakens for folks S of I-70 but near and North of the interstate, some isolated strong storms and heavier rains are still likely. I think it will remain below severe limits. Then we get a break and then heavy rains Sat evening into the overnight for folks along and SE of I-71. Lighter amounts as one goes NW. So the GFS ticked back SE again in other words. We can start using the NAM tomorrow and HRRR by tomorrow night and / or Friday.

Euro is holding its ground on the more westerly track.

LOU has its first 80 in the books for 2025. Gonna be a while on that for us of course.

76 as of 3pm so we've tied it!

Still 76 as of the 4pm reading but we may have just hit 77. 5pm climate report should be the official word.

We did it! 77 a new record high for today per the 5pm climate report.

1-2" of rain per the 18Z NAM for folks along and SE of I-71. Much lighter as one works NW from there,

18Z GFS hammers the area with heavy rain,

GFS bouncing back and forth with axis of heavier rains north or south of 71

Good Evening and broke a record I see. Still not much change in the forecast as we could see a few showers later Thursday and then we wait for the bigger system starting later Friday and Saturday. There is a chance even later Friday into early Saturday that wind may be the only player. Getting away from the energy source plus more energy trying to form well to the south can sometimes deplete the moisture in our area. Later Saturday though is a different and rain is very likely. I will give it until Thursday but I do expect rain late Friday but just threw out the chances the energy gets so strung out that all we get is rain. Severe weather and need to talk about that more as well and many different pieces of energy and lets see how things start to shake out.