Absolute Vorticity

9z SREF looks decent as well.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.

Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.

I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.

Weenie band in an identical spot as 00z on the new Euro.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.

Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.

I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.

I usually like a little narrower like 1-3” with 4” spots where the heaviest precip falls. Something along those lines.

Thanks Trev for posting the snow map. I was looking forwards to seeing what the Euro would show and I like it! We'll see what the 12z suite does shortly starting with the HRRR. I really would like to see this model and the NAM beef up the QPF a bit more to give the Euro more support.

Just heard from my son and he got 4 inches overnight in Wausau. They have been so warm this year and last year when he was looking for a house in April it was snowing as they had a banner year last year and a non banner one this year

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.

Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.

I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.

I usually like a little narrower like 1-3” with 4” spots where the heaviest precip falls. Something along those lines.

I mean yeah the standard is 1-3" and yeah some people will say "1-4 well thats a large range" but say nothing about 3-6" when it's the same length range.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:42 am

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.

Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.

I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.

I usually like a little narrower like 1-3” with 4” spots where the heaviest precip falls. Something along those lines.

I mean yeah the standard is 1-3" and yeah some people will say "1-4 well thats a large range" but say nothing about 3-6" when it's the same length range.

I think it’s a placebo effect. At 3” we know things are screwed. At 6” things are worse screwed and the town starts shutting down.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:45 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:42 am

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am

Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.

I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.

I usually like a little narrower like 1-3” with 4” spots where the heaviest precip falls. Something along those lines.

I mean yeah the standard is 1-3" and yeah some people will say "1-4 well thats a large range" but say nothing about 3-6" when it's the same length range.

I think it’s a placebo effect. At 3” we know things are screwed. At 6” things are worse screwed and the town starts shutting down.

Fair point.

9Z SREF Snowfall Mean:

CVG - 1.3"
HAO - 1.71"
ILN - 1.92"
MGY - 1.82"
DAY - 1.81"
CMH - 1.61"
ROD - 1.61"

The 6Z HRRR had a couple of decent bands just north of the river. The new 12Z run has extended some of that into NKY. Also, another maximized band of precip is showing up over Central KY. Pretty much a 1-2" deal for most.

Start of event moving up to mid day isn’t helping the cause

Currently for Greenville e.g. ILN is saying mainly after 3 PM.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:43 am Start of event moving up to mid day isn’t helping the cause

After 6pm would be ideal but we know that isn't happening. 3-4pm wouldn't be so bad either, but it is probably going to be a 12pm to 2pm affair depending on your location.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:46 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:43 am Start of event moving up to mid day isn’t helping the cause

After 6pm would be ideal but we know that isn't happening. 3-4pm wouldn't be so bad either, but it is probably going to be a 12pm to 2pm affair depending on your location.

I believe the strength of the system will have a say in timing. The stronger the system the slower it moves in. At the moment I am going with a 2-4pm locally but I agree earlier in the day would no doubt would hurt the amount of time we see snow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:46 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:43 am Start of event moving up to mid day isn’t helping the cause

After 6pm would be ideal but we know that isn't happening. 3-4pm wouldn't be so bad either, but it is probably going to be a 12pm to 2pm affair depending on your location.

I believe the strength of the system will have a say in timing. The stronger the system the slower it moves in. At the moment I am going with a 2-4pm locally but I agree earlier in the day would no doubt would hurt the amount of time we see snow.

Great post Tim.... the strength of the system for sure will play a role in how quickly it moves. We are in a progressive pattern though so there is a limit as to how "slow" this thing will actually move. IMO, this is like a 6-8 hour quick hitting event then we're done.

Interesting as well we have two pieces of energy and that is why we are seeing the models go back and forth on where the heaviest snow totals are going to be located. A merge of these two is what we need to happen and not only would that slow down the progress of the snow but more than likely see some of those higher banding totals. Again any kind of phasing this year locally in terms of snow has been terrible. The southern piece of energy looks stronger and will more than likely be the main piece and hopefully they combine because if they don't for some reason you get that area in between that gets little if any snow.

Each run of the nam keeps getting a tad stronger and that is good

I think this is about to be a good NAM run...

NAM now picking up on the banding the Euro and Canadian are showing.

12Z NAM has a nice mod to hvy band of snow coming right into the Cincy Metro / NKY area.

EDIT: QPF looks to be around 0.25" give or take.

So as it stands now, the GFS is the southern outlier. Let's see if it adjusts north on 12z.

Also the high coming down out of Canada keeps getting stronger with each run and the latest shows 1055. Have not seen that much this season

I've updated the logo for you guys:
FWIW, 12z HRRR came in stronger for central and southern KY:

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:18 am Also the high coming down out of Canada keeps getting stronger with each run and the latest shows 1055. Have not seen that much this season

Right on! If we can muster up a couple of inches, there is no way that we will get above freezing for highs on Sat even with sunshine. A lot of CAA from that high you mentioned.