We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

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fyrfyter
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by fyrfyter »

9z SREF looks decent as well.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by Trevor »

tron777 wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am
tpweather wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.
Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.
I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by Trevor »

Weenie band in an identical spot as 00z on the new Euro.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by fyrfyter »

Trevor wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:35 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am
tpweather wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.
Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.
I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.
I usually like a little narrower like 1-3” with 4” spots where the heaviest precip falls. Something along those lines.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tron777 »

Thanks Trev for posting the snow map. I was looking forwards to seeing what the Euro would show and I like it! :) We'll see what the 12z suite does shortly starting with the HRRR. I really would like to see this model and the NAM beef up the QPF a bit more to give the Euro more support.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tpweather »

Just heard from my son and he got 4 inches overnight in Wausau. They have been so warm this year and last year when he was looking for a house in April it was snowing as they had a banner year last year and a non banner one this year
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by Trevor »

fyrfyter wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 am
Trevor wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:35 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am
tpweather wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.
Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.
I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.
I usually like a little narrower like 1-3” with 4” spots where the heaviest precip falls. Something along those lines.
I mean yeah the standard is 1-3" and yeah some people will say "1-4 well thats a large range" but say nothing about 3-6" when it's the same length range. :lol:
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by fyrfyter »

Trevor wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:42 am
fyrfyter wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 am
Trevor wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:35 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am
tpweather wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:48 am Good Morning and great posts this morning. Timing again is key just like in life and in this situation slower is better. The later in the day the precip starts I believe the amount of time its snowing goes up. Another quick hitter as well so that will keep totals down. I like Bgoney forecast and 1/2- 2 inches and I may add isolated higher amounts if your area gets some banding. Les like you mentioned the banding may show up but not until Friday will this be become clearer.
Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.
I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.
I usually like a little narrower like 1-3” with 4” spots where the heaviest precip falls. Something along those lines.
I mean yeah the standard is 1-3" and yeah some people will say "1-4 well thats a large range" but say nothing about 3-6" when it's the same length range. :lol:
I think it’s a placebo effect. At 3” we know things are screwed. At 6” things are worse screwed and the town starts shutting down.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by Trevor »

fyrfyter wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:45 am
Trevor wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:42 am
fyrfyter wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 am
Trevor wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:35 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:53 am

Good morning Tim! All we can really do is see what the model trends are today with regards to those higher bands. I know some people hate broad brushing a forecast, or having a big forecasted range of snowfall amounts. I mean literally, the low end of the ceiling is a 1/2" and the high end of the ceiling is 4" should one or two of those weenie bands set up shop. Snowfall totals are going to very greatly across our counties. So you almost need a snowfall forecast range of 1/2 to 4". That pretty much covers all scenario's being shown by the models.
I was toying with going 1-4" but haven't decided yet on my numbers.
I usually like a little narrower like 1-3” with 4” spots where the heaviest precip falls. Something along those lines.
I mean yeah the standard is 1-3" and yeah some people will say "1-4 well thats a large range" but say nothing about 3-6" when it's the same length range. :lol:
I think it’s a placebo effect. At 3” we know things are screwed. At 6” things are worse screwed and the town starts shutting down.
Fair point.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tron777 »

9Z SREF Snowfall Mean:

CVG - 1.3"
HAO - 1.71"
ILN - 1.92"
MGY - 1.82"
DAY - 1.81"
CMH - 1.61"
ROD - 1.61"
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tron777 »

The 6Z HRRR had a couple of decent bands just north of the river. The new 12Z run has extended some of that into NKY. Also, another maximized band of precip is showing up over Central KY. Pretty much a 1-2" deal for most.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by Bgoney »

Start of event moving up to mid day isn’t helping the cause
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by MVWxObserver »

Currently for Greenville e.g. ILN is saying mainly after 3 PM.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:43 am Start of event moving up to mid day isn’t helping the cause
After 6pm would be ideal but we know that isn't happening. 3-4pm wouldn't be so bad either, but it is probably going to be a 12pm to 2pm affair depending on your location.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tpweather »

tron777 wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:46 am
Bgoney wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:43 am Start of event moving up to mid day isn’t helping the cause
After 6pm would be ideal but we know that isn't happening. 3-4pm wouldn't be so bad either, but it is probably going to be a 12pm to 2pm affair depending on your location.
I believe the strength of the system will have a say in timing. The stronger the system the slower it moves in. At the moment I am going with a 2-4pm locally but I agree earlier in the day would no doubt would hurt the amount of time we see snow.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tron777 »

tpweather wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:55 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:46 am
Bgoney wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:43 am Start of event moving up to mid day isn’t helping the cause
After 6pm would be ideal but we know that isn't happening. 3-4pm wouldn't be so bad either, but it is probably going to be a 12pm to 2pm affair depending on your location.
I believe the strength of the system will have a say in timing. The stronger the system the slower it moves in. At the moment I am going with a 2-4pm locally but I agree earlier in the day would no doubt would hurt the amount of time we see snow.
Great post Tim.... the strength of the system for sure will play a role in how quickly it moves. We are in a progressive pattern though so there is a limit as to how "slow" this thing will actually move. IMO, this is like a 6-8 hour quick hitting event then we're done.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tpweather »

Interesting as well we have two pieces of energy and that is why we are seeing the models go back and forth on where the heaviest snow totals are going to be located. A merge of these two is what we need to happen and not only would that slow down the progress of the snow but more than likely see some of those higher banding totals. Again any kind of phasing this year locally in terms of snow has been terrible. The southern piece of energy looks stronger and will more than likely be the main piece and hopefully they combine because if they don't for some reason you get that area in between that gets little if any snow.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tpweather »

Each run of the nam keeps getting a tad stronger and that is good
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by Trevor »

I think this is about to be a good NAM run...
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by Trevor »

NAM now picking up on the banding the Euro and Canadian are showing.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tron777 »

12Z NAM has a nice mod to hvy band of snow coming right into the Cincy Metro / NKY area.

EDIT: QPF looks to be around 0.25" give or take.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by Trevor »

So as it stands now, the GFS is the southern outlier. Let's see if it adjusts north on 12z.
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tpweather »

Also the high coming down out of Canada keeps getting stronger with each run and the latest shows 1055. Have not seen that much this season
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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by DJKuo »

I've updated the logo for you guys:
av-header-small screwed.png
FWIW, 12z HRRR came in stronger for central and southern KY:

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Re: We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

Post by tron777 »

tpweather wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:18 am Also the high coming down out of Canada keeps getting stronger with each run and the latest shows 1055. Have not seen that much this season
Right on! If we can muster up a couple of inches, there is no way that we will get above freezing for highs on Sat even with sunshine. A lot of CAA from that high you mentioned.
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