Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:21 am Good Morning and I agree Les that its time just to watch the new pattern develop. Getting to the new pattern and models will have wild swings until the pattern is set in place. I don't worry about specific storms at this time but by next weekend then I look more at the these possible storms. So nice this week that I plan on getting the grill out on Tuesday and I love those first few times you use the grill as the food and of course beer work so well together.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 8:54 am As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 8:54 am As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

Hey Les that is correct and models will update over the next few days in that regards. Funny how a stall for just a few days can really thrown the models off on the upcoming pattern. The GFS of course will be to fast with systems over the next few weeks but figures it out sooner or later. The Cmc many times grabs hold of these pattern changes first but folds just a few days out and the Euro still has problems with holding energy back but this season the STJ has been fast so it has been better in that regards.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 8:54 am As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

Hey Les that is correct and models will update over the next few days in that regards. Funny how a stall for just a few days can really thrown the models off on the upcoming pattern. The GFS of course will be to fast with systems over the next few weeks but figures it out sooner or later. The Cmc many times grabs hold of these pattern changes first but folds just a few days out and the Euro still has problems with holding energy back but this season the STJ has been fast so it has been better in that regards.

I never expected the MJO to stall. I don't think that it really did stall either. It did slow down for 2 maybe 3 days but it is moving again. A lot of the models have it stalled in Phase 7 for a week, but my stance has been to keep it moving. Would love to see the MJO hit Phase 8 next week as that would fit my forecast nicely.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:56 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 8:54 am As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

Hey Les that is correct and models will update over the next few days in that regards. Funny how a stall for just a few days can really thrown the models off on the upcoming pattern. The GFS of course will be to fast with systems over the next few weeks but figures it out sooner or later. The Cmc many times grabs hold of these pattern changes first but folds just a few days out and the Euro still has problems with holding energy back but this season the STJ has been fast so it has been better in that regards.

I never expected the MJO to stall. I don't think that it really did stall either. It did slow down for 2 maybe 3 days but it is moving again. A lot of the models have it stalled in Phase 7 for a week, but my stance has been to keep it moving. Would love to see the MJO hit Phase 8 next week as that would fit my forecast nicely.

You have been correct and I believe it heads to phase 1-3 as well. Again once you get into phase 2 and 3 in late February this is wonderful for the east coast and we are still fine but on the edge of the cold

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:20 pm Les I believe we are just fine. Again all we ask for is some chances to winter weather and the cold should arrive next week. This will be arctic air as it was produced over the past few weeks. Sure the later we get in the season its harder to get really cold but I can see temps in the 20's and 30's for highs and lows in the teens several times during that period and just hope the timing works well in terms of precip. Presidents day as had several nice storms over the years and that period always seems to give us a shot at winter weather.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:26 pm Les that cold in January was rather strong and we got lucky a few nights with a cloudy sky or we could have seen double digit below zero temps. Eastern Ky got to -22 so that was a rather strong outbreak. No I am not expecting that kind of cold but if we get a decent snow temps can no doubt get into the single digits.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:31 pm 12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major improvements to 500mb will be needed if you're wanting sustained cold. Cold enough for a wet snow event is on the table though IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:33 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:31 pm 12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major improvements to 500mb will be needed if you're wanting sustained cold. Cold enough for a wet snow event is on the table though IMO.

With the way things have been going, I think highs below freezing for a week qualifies as sustained cold. It does in my book. The rest of your post Trev, I 100% agree with. I know I sound old, but when I was younger, that would not qualify as sustained cold. But in today's day and age to me it does. Usually we get a 2-5 day cold streak anymore so a week plus is impressive to me since cold streaks like that are just so hard to come by these days.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:33 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:31 pm 12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major improvements to 500mb will be needed if you're wanting sustained cold. Cold enough for a wet snow event is on the table though IMO.

With the way things have been going, I think highs below freezing for a week qualifies as sustained cold. It does in my book. The rest of your post Trev, I 100% agree with. I know I sound old, but when I was younger, that would not qualify as sustained cold. But in today's day and age to me it does. Usually we get a 2-5 day cold streak anymore so a week plus is impressive to me since cold streaks like that are just so hard to come by these days.

It's subjective for sure as I don't think there is a Met definition w/ criteria for a sustained pattern.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:46 pm My son who lives in northern Wisconsin has had a horrible winter in terms of snow and cold. We were up there on Halloween and got 2-3 inches but since then maybe another 7-10 at best. The economy is driven somewhat by winter and they have a nice ski area within 5 miles that had to be shut down several times this season because it was not even cold enough to make snow. Have not looked at the stats but my guess for the winter they have been at least 10 degrees above normal and maybe more. So yes it has not been great here either but nothing compared to that part of the world. Last year they have a wonderful season with tons of snow and though it was cold it was near average and that is perfect for that area to get snow.