February 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning and I agree Les that its time just to watch the new pattern develop. Getting to the new pattern and models will have wild swings until the pattern is set in place. I don't worry about specific storms at this time but by next weekend then I look more at the these possible storms. So nice this week that I plan on getting the grill out on Tuesday and I love those first few times you use the grill as the food and of course beer work so well together.

[tron777]

Good Morning and I agree Les that its time just to watch the new pattern develop. Getting to the new pattern and models will have wild swings until the pattern is set in place. I don't worry about specific storms at this time but by next weekend then I look more at the these possible storms. So nice this week that I plan on getting the grill out on Tuesday and I love those first few times you use the grill as the food and of course beer work so well together.

Good morning Tim! I have some pork cutlets marinating in some garlic and herb dressing. I will be grilling that for dinner after work today.

[Bgoney]

What small patches of snow are left to our N/NW will be gone by mid week (including parts of Southern Canada) with rain expected late week in southern Canada, North Dakota, Minnesota etc……. before some light snow accumulations over next weekend for a small area along the border. Lower 48 has nowhere to go but to get colder temps mid month

[tron777]

As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

[tpweather]

As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

Hey Les that is correct and models will update over the next few days in that regards. Funny how a stall for just a few days can really thrown the models off on the upcoming pattern. The GFS of course will be to fast with systems over the next few weeks but figures it out sooner or later. The Cmc many times grabs hold of these pattern changes first but folds just a few days out and the Euro still has problems with holding energy back but this season the STJ has been fast so it has been better in that regards.

[tron777]

As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

Hey Les that is correct and models will update over the next few days in that regards. Funny how a stall for just a few days can really thrown the models off on the upcoming pattern. The GFS of course will be to fast with systems over the next few weeks but figures it out sooner or later. The Cmc many times grabs hold of these pattern changes first but folds just a few days out and the Euro still has problems with holding energy back but this season the STJ has been fast so it has been better in that regards.

I never expected the MJO to stall. I don't think that it really did stall either. It did slow down for 2 maybe 3 days but it is moving again. A lot of the models have it stalled in Phase 7 for a week, but my stance has been to keep it moving. Would love to see the MJO hit Phase 8 next week as that would fit my forecast nicely.

[tpweather]

As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

Hey Les that is correct and models will update over the next few days in that regards. Funny how a stall for just a few days can really thrown the models off on the upcoming pattern. The GFS of course will be to fast with systems over the next few weeks but figures it out sooner or later. The Cmc many times grabs hold of these pattern changes first but folds just a few days out and the Euro still has problems with holding energy back but this season the STJ has been fast so it has been better in that regards.

I never expected the MJO to stall. I don't think that it really did stall either. It did slow down for 2 maybe 3 days but it is moving again. A lot of the models have it stalled in Phase 7 for a week, but my stance has been to keep it moving. Would love to see the MJO hit Phase 8 next week as that would fit my forecast nicely.

You have been correct and I believe it heads to phase 1-3 as well. Again once you get into phase 2 and 3 in late February this is wonderful for the east coast and we are still fine but on the edge of the cold

[tron777]

As of 2/3 per the Aussies, the MJO is on the move again. Still in Phase 7 but it looks like it only stalled for a couple of days so that's good to see it moving again.

Hey Les that is correct and models will update over the next few days in that regards. Funny how a stall for just a few days can really thrown the models off on the upcoming pattern. The GFS of course will be to fast with systems over the next few weeks but figures it out sooner or later. The Cmc many times grabs hold of these pattern changes first but folds just a few days out and the Euro still has problems with holding energy back but this season the STJ has been fast so it has been better in that regards.

I never expected the MJO to stall. I don't think that it really did stall either. It did slow down for 2 maybe 3 days but it is moving again. A lot of the models have it stalled in Phase 7 for a week, but my stance has been to keep it moving. Would love to see the MJO hit Phase 8 next week as that would fit my forecast nicely.

You have been correct and I believe it heads to phase 1-3 as well. Again once you get into phase 2 and 3 in late February this is wonderful for the east coast and we are still fine but on the edge of the cold

I'm just hoping for a window of opportunity Tim from mid Feb thru 3/10 then it's on to spring as far as I'm concerned.

[tpweather]

Les I believe we are just fine. Again all we ask for is some chances to winter weather and the cold should arrive next week. This will be arctic air as it was produced over the past few weeks. Sure the later we get in the season its harder to get really cold but I can see temps in the 20's and 30's for highs and lows in the teens several times during that period and just hope the timing works well in terms of precip. Presidents day as had several nice storms over the years and that period always seems to give us a shot at winter weather.

[tron777]

Les I believe we are just fine. Again all we ask for is some chances to winter weather and the cold should arrive next week. This will be arctic air as it was produced over the past few weeks. Sure the later we get in the season its harder to get really cold but I can see temps in the 20's and 30's for highs and lows in the teens several times during that period and just hope the timing works well in terms of precip. Presidents day as had several nice storms over the years and that period always seems to give us a shot at winter weather.

Tim... V-day thru Pres. Day usually does give us a chance or two in most years. AO is forecast to go pretty far negative so the PV is going to be on the weak side and we know the cold air is on the move. I am still seeing a -EPO / -NAO also, so that should direct the cold in our direction one would think. Again, I do not expect arctic air like we had back in January but I do think air cold enough for snow is still on the table. I am still expecting the pattern to change as we approach the V-day period.

[tpweather]

Les that cold in January was rather strong and we got lucky a few nights with a cloudy sky or we could have seen double digit below zero temps. Eastern Ky got to -22 so that was a rather strong outbreak. No I am not expecting that kind of cold but if we get a decent snow temps can no doubt get into the single digits.

[tron777]

Les that cold in January was rather strong and we got lucky a few nights with a cloudy sky or we could have seen double digit below zero temps. Eastern Ky got to -22 so that was a rather strong outbreak. No I am not expecting that kind of cold but if we get a decent snow temps can no doubt get into the single digits.

Oh I agree Tim.... the problem though is getting some snow on the ground! That's been the issue all season long. We can't even get a snow storm to track in model fantasy range anymore. Can't even get disappointed when the digital snow isn't even showing up.

[Trevor]

12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major improvements to 500mb will be needed if you're wanting sustained cold. Cold enough for a wet snow event is on the table IMO. Marginal temps and strengthening sun angle will likely be inhibitors though.

[tron777]

12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major improvements to 500mb will be needed if you're wanting sustained cold. Cold enough for a wet snow event is on the table though IMO.

With the way things have been going, I think highs below freezing for a week qualifies as sustained cold. It does in my book. The rest of your post Trev, I 100% agree with. I know I sound old, but when I was younger, that would not qualify as sustained cold. But in today's day and age to me it does. Usually we get a 2-5 day cold streak anymore so a week plus is impressive to me since cold streaks like that are just so hard to come by these days.

[Trevor]

12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major improvements to 500mb will be needed if you're wanting sustained cold. Cold enough for a wet snow event is on the table though IMO.

With the way things have been going, I think highs below freezing for a week qualifies as sustained cold. It does in my book. The rest of your post Trev, I 100% agree with. I know I sound old, but when I was younger, that would not qualify as sustained cold. But in today's day and age to me it does. Usually we get a 2-5 day cold streak anymore so a week plus is impressive to me since cold streaks like that are just so hard to come by these days.

It's subjective for sure as I don't think there is a Met definition w/ criteria for a sustained pattern.

[tron777]

12z GFS continues to advertise any cold having a tough time sticking around. Sure last month that cold blast was impressive and struck around for a week, but I wouldn't call that sustained. Cool for a couple days behind fronts then a rebound; that has been the trend this season overall. Major improvements to 500mb will be needed if you're wanting sustained cold. Cold enough for a wet snow event is on the table though IMO.

With the way things have been going, I think highs below freezing for a week qualifies as sustained cold. It does in my book. The rest of your post Trev, I 100% agree with. I know I sound old, but when I was younger, that would not qualify as sustained cold. But in today's day and age to me it does. Usually we get a 2-5 day cold streak anymore so a week plus is impressive to me since cold streaks like that are just so hard to come by these days.

It's subjective for sure as I don't think there is a Met definition w/ criteria for a sustained pattern.

Good point... I don't think that there is either and there actually should be. It would settle posts like ours very quickly lol

[tpweather]

My son who lives in northern Wisconsin has had a horrible winter in terms of snow and cold. We were up there on Halloween and got 2-3 inches but since then maybe another 7-10 at best. The economy is driven somewhat by winter and they have a nice ski area within 5 miles that had to be shut down several times this season because it was not even cold enough to make snow. Have not looked at the stats but my guess for the winter they have been at least 10 degrees above normal and maybe more. So yes it has not been great here either but nothing compared to that part of the world. Last year they have a wonderful season with tons of snow and though it was cold it was near average and that is perfect for that area to get snow.

[tron777]

My son who lives in northern Wisconsin has had a horrible winter in terms of snow and cold. We were up there on Halloween and got 2-3 inches but since then maybe another 7-10 at best. The economy is driven somewhat by winter and they have a nice ski area within 5 miles that had to be shut down several times this season because it was not even cold enough to make snow. Have not looked at the stats but my guess for the winter they have been at least 10 degrees above normal and maybe more. So yes it has not been great here either but nothing compared to that part of the world. Last year they have a wonderful season with tons of snow and though it was cold it was near average and that is perfect for that area to get snow.

Another example is MSP (Minneapolis, MN) They went from having a top 5 snowy winter last season to a top 5 least snowy winter this year. Lack of precip in addition to temps have been the big issues.

[Bgoney]

What a day. Going to be a great week to get some March chores out of the way. Ground is very workable, almost perfect .

IMG_1370.jpeg

[tron777]

55 here today, currently sitting at 53.

[Trevor]

12z Ensembles (in particular the Euro) hint at a moderation in temps ~20th after our cooldown mid month.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 54, DAY 46 and CMH 50 today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! No changes to the current forecast. Dry until Thurs night after midnight. Then we get some rain into Fri morning. Another batch Fri night into Sat morning and again late Sunday into early next week. Mild temps too. Could hit 60 on Thursday, cloud cover dependent.

Can we cash in during the 2/13 - 2/20 period? 0Z OP GFS has a couple of clippers. As usual... we shall see how things shake out as we get closer.

[Bgoney]

For our week 3 (14-20th) colder period , going with a range of 4-8 degrees below normal average mean. Going to feel plenty cold from where we’re coming from. Ensembles have been consistent for quite some time . Modified pacific air for the OV , with deeper arctic air staying north during this period anyways. Snow chances? As Les said we shall see.

Normals for CVG during week 3, 14-20th

IMG_1374.jpeg

[tron777]

I wouldn't mind a couple of clippers as the GFS suggests. It's just hard to know if that will be the dominate jet stream pattern for that week, or does the STJ try to get involved? Just a lot of uncertainty right now until we get closer to this weekend.