Absolute Vorticity

From this morning:

12Z Euro shows a 50-70% chance for Rain Tues with a slow moving cold front and low moving thru the OV. Going with 0.10 to 0.25" and of course there will be some zeros too. It stalls East of us so we get clouds and cool weather after that as Franklin begins to enter the picture NE of the Bahamas. Then we get the punch of cooler air behind that front. If we see sun then the low 70s. Cloudy most of the time, stuck in the upper 60s is my call towards the end of next week.

NWS ILN Radar will be out for Maintenance Sept 11th-22nd:

https://www.weather.gov/media/iln/outreach/radar.pdf

77 / 62 as of 4pm at CVG, may have hit 78 today. Only complaint is the lack of rain. The sun has been nice to see this afternoon though.

Super Dooper Downpour on the south side of Dayton (Kettering). Nothing at my house of course! LOL

Minus any adjustments it looks like currently that CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 78 today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:40 pm For you leaf peepers out there, we have some fall color ongoing across the Northern tier of states per:

https://smokymountains.com/fall-foliage-map/

This is a good website to track the leaf change this Fall season across the country as well as the estimated peak date for our region.

Camping trip to Northern Wisconsin from September 25 thru October 10. Hoping to see some impressive colors!!

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:40 pm For you leaf peepers out there, we have some fall color ongoing across the Northern tier of states per:

https://smokymountains.com/fall-foliage-map/

This is a good website to track the leaf change this Fall season across the country as well as the estimated peak date for our region.

Camping trip to Northern Wisconsin from September 25 thru October 10. Hoping to see some impressive colors!!

My wife and I drove through upper state New York, and all the way through Maine last October. The foliage was spectacular!
Best foliage was probably northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire. Hope you have a great trip as well..

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:40 pm For you leaf peepers out there, we have some fall color ongoing across the Northern tier of states per:

https://smokymountains.com/fall-foliage-map/

This is a good website to track the leaf change this Fall season across the country as well as the estimated peak date for our region.

Camping trip to Northern Wisconsin from September 25 thru October 10. Hoping to see some impressive colors!!

You will Bo! When I went to Cass Lake in N MN, usually in mid Sept the color was just starting when we got there and beautiful the following weekend when we left.

Good Sat all! Getting a new mattress delivered this morning then grilling out and watching college football. NFL action of course tomorrow with some cold beer continuing. Weatherwise, not much to speak of. Same ole, same ole. 70s today and the low 80s tomorrow thanks to more sun.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2023 8:09 am Good Sat all! Getting a new mattress delivered this morning then grilling out and watching college football. NFL action of course tomorrow with some cold beer continuing. Weatherwise, not much to speak of. Same ole, same ole. 70s today and the low 80s tomorrow thanks to more sun.

Nothing beats a good mattress. Sounds like a great weekend Les. I am heading to my daughter's house then will come back and watch some college football. Have a neighborhood party at 5pm. Sunday cleaning up my yard and then watching the nfl. Heading out early Monday for a 4 day golf trip and then home for about a week or so before a trip up north for about a week or so.

You have a nice sounding week of fun coming up too Tim! I am getting a firm mattress. It should be better for hips and back. Hopefully Tuesday can pan out for some folks since the last system, was pretty much a dud.

74 / 61 with a new NE breeze at CVG as of the 12pm reading. A beautiful weekend really on tap for most of your plans folks. Enjoy it! Tues look like a shot for Tim's Golf Game and for the rest f us too but otherwise we are looking pretty good!

Tim... 60s and 40s for Wed and Thurs?

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2023 12:02 pm 74 / 61 with a new NE breeze at CVG as of the 12pm reading. A beautiful weekend really on tap for most of your plans folks. Enjoy it! Tues look like a shot for Tim's Golf Game and for the rest f us too but otherwise we are looking pretty good!

Tim... 60s and 40s for Wed and Thurs?

No doubt Les and hopefully on Tuesday the front stalls over the local area and we can get some rain while I am out to the west with a cloudy sky and 67 for a high but no rain.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2023 12:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2023 12:02 pm 74 / 61 with a new NE breeze at CVG as of the 12pm reading. A beautiful weekend really on tap for most of your plans folks. Enjoy it! Tues look like a shot for Tim's Golf Game and for the rest f us too but otherwise we are looking pretty good!

Tim... 60s and 40s for Wed and Thurs?

No doubt Les and hopefully on Tuesday the front stalls over the local area and we can get some rain while I am out to the west with a cloudy sky and 67 for a high but no rain.

Sounds like a good game plan to me!

75 here right now. Got the sprinkler running for a few more minutes. Will pick more beans and tomatoes for supper tomorrow.

Prayerfully this next week's system will be more moisture loaded than the last one.

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2023 5:20 pm Prayerfully this next week's system will be more moisture loaded than the last one.

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

CVG:

6Z NAM - 0.16"
6Z GFS 0.04"
0Z Euro - 0.27"

Good morning all! As you can see from my above post, our Tues front doesn't have a ton of moisture to work with. It looks like another 0.10 to maybe 0.25". There will also be some folks who get nothing. No changes to the temp forecast. Low 80s today, mid 80s Mon, 70s Tues, Upper 60s Wed and Thurs. 70s Fri and Sat. Lows mainly in the 50s with a couple of upper 40s possible Wed and Thurs mornings.

My long term thought sure for mild and dry conditions post 9/20. An Aleutian Ridge and a trough over the Gulf of Alaska off the Western Coast of North America into the Pacific NW when ridging over Southern Canada and the northern Tier of states. Both the EPS and GEFS agree. This means temps warm into the lower 80s post 9/20 which by then is around 5 degrees above normal or so so nothing too bad. Due to dry ground, I could see mid 80s if enough sunshine is realized.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 9:39 am My long term thought sure for mild and dry conditions post 9/20. An Aleutian Ridge and a trough over the Gulf of Alaska off the Western Coast of North America into the Pacific NW when ridging over Southern Canada and the northern Tier of states. Both the EPS and GEFS agree. This means temps warm into the lower 80s post 9/20 which by then is around 5 degrees above normal or so so nothing too bad. Due to dry ground, I could see mid 80s if enough sunshine is realized.

Great Post Les and with those conditions you can see wild swings in temps with lows sometimes near 50 and highs near 84. Just mowed and some areas needed to be trimmed but mainly just a shape of the lawn.

12Z NAM brings in 0.17" on Tues at CVG thru 8pm Wed.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 7:02 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2023 5:20 pm Prayerfully this next week's system will be more moisture loaded than the last one.

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

CVG:

6Z NAM - 0.16"
6Z GFS 0.04"
0Z Euro - 0.27"

We'll root for and take the Euro, Alex!

If there's a region of the country that doesn't need anymore rainfall in the short to medium range its the Southeast e.g.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 9:39 am My long term thought sure for mild and dry conditions post 9/20. An Aleutian Ridge and a trough over the Gulf of Alaska off the Western Coast of North America into the Pacific NW when ridging over Southern Canada and the northern Tier of states. Both the EPS and GEFS agree. This means temps warm into the lower 80s post 9/20 which by then is around 5 degrees above normal or so so nothing too bad. Due to dry ground, I could see mid 80s if enough sunshine is realized.

That's the date of my folks and my house closing and then we're getting our furniture moved in on Fri 9/22.

Could we see the first frost in parts of the northern plains/upper mid-west this week. There is a chance though it would be a light frost and probably only in a few locations but love this time of year as we head towards winter